Psychopath coin toss

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Psychopath coin toss

Post by Blind groper » Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:04 pm

Taken from New Scientist 7 Dec. page 29.

Prisoners near the end of their sentence often go to a probation meeting, where decisions are made about their release, based on an estimate of the chances of them reoffending.

Seena Fazel, Research Fellow at the University of Oxford, reports that the situation for psychopaths is more than problematic. Psychopaths make up 10% of Britain's prison population, and this group is over represented in statistics of very serious and violent crime when reoffending.

So what is the accuracy of assessing their reoffending rate? According to the research done by Fazel and colleagues, it is equal to tossing a coin.

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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by cronus » Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:06 pm

Blind groper wrote:Taken from New Scientist 7 Dec. page 29.

Prisoners near the end of their sentence often go to a probation meeting, where decisions are made about their release, based on an estimate of the chances of them reoffending.

Seena Fazel, Research Fellow at the University of Oxford, reports that the situation for psychopaths is more than problematic. Psychopaths make up 10% of Britain's prison population, and this group is over represented in statistics of very serious and violent crime when reoffending.

So what is the accuracy of assessing their reoffending rate? According to the research done by Fazel and colleagues, it is equal to tossing a coin.
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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by Seabass » Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:16 pm

I take it "goolies" has a different meaning over there...


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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by JacksSmirkingRevenge » Sun Dec 15, 2013 5:13 am

Seems odd to me that they would use such a term when there is no such medical/psychiatric/psychological diagnosis as psychopathy.
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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by Azathoth » Sun Dec 15, 2013 5:42 am

Fucking nutcases is the scientific term I think

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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by Blind groper » Sun Dec 15, 2013 7:22 am

Perhaps.

But the term 'psychopath' along with its synonym 'sociopath' is in wide use, and has a clear definition.

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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by JimC » Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:30 pm

I read the same article, BG...

Whatever label we apply, clearly it would be a good idea if we could improve our prediction rates as to the chance of re-offending if released on probation. However, there is another, more straightforward possibility - simply do not release violent offenders till they've done their full term, no gambling required...
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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by cronus » Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:33 pm

JimC wrote:I read the same article, BG...

Whatever label we apply, clearly it would be a good idea if we could improve our prediction rates as to the chance of re-offending if released on probation. However, there is another, more straightforward possibility - simply do not release violent offenders till they've done their full term, no gambling required...
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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by Blind groper » Sun Dec 15, 2013 10:46 pm

To Jim

While I agree with you, you are only postponing the problem. If a murderer, for example, is sentenced to 20 years, and he is a psychopath, then releasing him after 20 years still puts society at risk. Any suggestion? Apart from that coming from Monty Python, of course.

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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by JimC » Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:30 am

Blind groper wrote:To Jim

While I agree with you, you are only postponing the problem. If a murderer, for example, is sentenced to 20 years, and he is a psychopath, then releasing him after 20 years still puts society at risk. Any suggestion? Apart from that coming from Monty Python, of course.
He is at least older, possibly more feeble, and has had a few years less to commit crimes, so, on average, there should be a reduction in recidivist murders...
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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by Blind groper » Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:50 am

Reasonable answer, Jim, but nowhere near an actual solution to the problem. It would be nice if we could apply a rehabilitation program and fix the psychopath, but no one can do that yet. So how do we solve the problem that a psychopath released after his term is very likely to re-offend, or even kill another person?

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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by JimC » Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:55 am

Blind groper wrote:Reasonable answer, Jim, but nowhere near an actual solution to the problem. It would be nice if we could apply a rehabilitation program and fix the psychopath, but no one can do that yet. So how do we solve the problem that a psychopath released after his term is very likely to re-offend, or even kill another person?
If we can't come up with a more efficient predictive method, then my answer at least should slightly reduce the harm.

Perhaps certain types of violent, psychopathic offenders should have some form of permanent locator fitted, or even implanted, when they are released, so they will know that police would always be able to link them to the scene of a crime, which may be a deterrent...
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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by JacksSmirkingRevenge » Mon Dec 16, 2013 8:16 am

Exploding collars...
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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by JimC » Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:06 am

JacksSmirkingRevenge wrote:Exploding collars...
Linked to brain sensors which detect violent thoughts...

Advice when the collars are fitted:

"Always think calm, peaceful thoughts..."
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Re: Psychopath coin toss

Post by Blind groper » Mon Dec 16, 2013 6:55 pm

I have an alternate point of view. I think that those who are considered long term dangers to society should be placed in a 'quarantine facility'. This would not be a prison, in that it is not designed to punish, but to separate. That means permitting the denizens therein to have computers, TV's etc., to make their lives more bearable. However, the big thing is not to release them till they are so old that they are unlikely to offend again.

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