Some electoral math…
Here are the states I expect are solidly safe for Obama: California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts (sorry, Governor), Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington. Total electoral votes: 218
(People always talk about Pennsylvania being a battleground state, and thanks to the backwoods mountain people living in the center of it there always seems to be some hope for Republicans to take it. But in the end it’s a blue state, end of story.)
And ones that are still likely for Obama, but might be a fight: Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico. Total electoral votes: 39
Here are the states I expect are solidly safe for Romney: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana (yes, Obama won it last time, but that was something of a fluke), Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Mississippi, Nebraska, N. Carolina (same comment as Indiana) N. Dakota, Oklahoma, S. Carolina, S. Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming. Total electoral votes: 170
And ones that are still likely to go to Romney, but might be a fight: Arizona, N. Carolina (same comment as Indiana). Total electoral votes: 26.
And the true battleground states: Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia. Total electoral votes: 91
Adding the first two paragraphs together (218 + 39) and Obama can consider 257 electoral votes to be pretty reliable. Romney can feel safe about 196 (170 + 26). Remember that 270 are needed to win.
Any thoughts on how some of these battleground states are likely to break? Any contentions with some of the “likely” or “safe” red or blue states?
