where the Yeehadists let the attack happen, but underestimate the capacity of the enemy. and the effects of luck.
Probably a good strategic time for the Iranians to take on Uncle Sam, one more war and the US will never recover economically (Empires never see the end coming - nor when it has already arrived)......might kill a few muppets, but even a quick exit will be 10 years of getting killed and bleeding the Treasury (we laugh about the Greek economy nowadays - but at one time they were western civilisation......they also bled out).
Regime change? probably, but fundamently that don't matter.....over the long term (for any Amerikans reading - that's the bits beyond the next 1/4

Given that the Yeehadists are led (?!) by a weak president in an Election year - the Yids will kick something off. Even if that means sinking a US Carrier. or 2.