Hitman: Blood Money Mafia - A Dance With The Devil

[amok]

linus how would you line up the guest players?

Deviating from my previous convention and listing from most probably scum/agent 47 to town instead:

rc - Was on diva's BW & her kill was attributed to 47. Viewed as town. Low profile early & didn't vote day 1. Curious statement expressing suspicion of contra while also worrying that the blocker must block the right player. Correctly said that aza & contra were scum, and implied agent 47 was someone else, on the day of aza's lynch (if you're town, you're awesome, rc!).

dp/mz - Was not on diva's BW. Viewed as town. DP gets a free pass for not voting day 1 (that, and his bond to feck via the joke vote, is why I picked him for a seer cover statement), said he voted diva purely for his survival. I make nothing in particular of his reaction to the seer cover, but probably should if I were smarter. MZ has not done anything I've found noteworthy either way.

irre - Was not on diva's BW. Town point for the mass out suggestion & aza lynch. Expressed suspicion of me, asked me to post list of suspects, said it aligns well with hers, when pressed made several slip ups showing that my list didn't at all align will her expressed suspicions---a townie suspicious of me should've scrutinized my list. Can't keep the reason for clearing gib straight, her repeated claims of being confused about the alignment/ALIGNMENT stuff are odd since it's a topic closely related her favorite topic of how people confused about charlou's alignment are cleared. Has been followy the last few days. On day 1, and maybe also today, implied she was too unfamliar with me to be confident in her read, yet on the zombie board of the Innsmouth game said she had me firmly as town by the end of day 1.

amok - Was on diva's BW. Looked both very townish and engaged a while ago, has looked less overtly townish recently but also not scummy. Deserves to win if scum.

And right back at ya, Linus. If you're scum, you deserve to win.

I'm less engaged now because I'm worried about my decision-making. It's coming down to that time now more than just parsing the posts/facts. Now's the time for intuition, and I have less confidence in myself about that. I don't want this to go longer than one more correct lynch.

[irretating]

^ linus the probs with your points about me is that they are not taking into account my timezone.

All of them?

I was not on the diva BW because I was asleep.

It's a point in your favor now and it doesn't matter why you weren't on it.

^ yes I'm aware not being on diva's BW would be a point in my favour had I been around at the time.

And yeah, that whole exchange tapatalking just before I fell asleep, I got the distinct impression you were trying to 'catch me out' which got my hackles up because a) I cannot really be caught out as I'm town and b) it's more a scum tactic than town tactic, especially as I pointed out I only glanced at your list.

[Linus]

^ yes I'm aware not being on diva's BW would be a point in my favour had I been around at the time.

The fact that you don't understand why it's a point in your favor probably means I have to reevaluate this tentative, flavor-based assumption in scenarios where you're agent 47!

[irretating]

^ yes I'm aware not being on diva's BW would be a point in my favour had I been around at the time.

The fact that you don't understand why it's a point in your favor probably means I have to reevaluate this tentative, flavor-based assumption in scenarios where you're agent 47!

No, I do understand you said it's a point in my favour. I'm pointing out to you that it's not a valid point. I don't care if that means you think I'm scummier, I would just like you to judge me on valid things.

[amok]

Linus, I stopped focusing on the Diva Was Killed By Agent 47 thing after Aza was killed by Bodyguards (according to Gonzo). The people who voted to lynch Aza were: Irre, Zigmen, Amok, Oblivion, Contra and RC. No bodyguards (Ani and Ksen). In this, at least, Contra was correct about it being a function of the video game plot.

[oblivion]

dp lynch-voted Charlou and mayor-voted gib.

[oblivion]

and I needed to be reminded of that, among other things.

##unvote MZ##

[Gonzo]

Daybreak D4:

Animavore was Body Guard - The Franchise - Vanilla

Attending the party by invitation are
Guests (4)
Waiters (1)
VIP (1)
Body Guards (1)
Officers (2)

(No stay on the look out message.)

Just after lynch D4:

Contra was Agent Smith - ICA - Role Blocker - Block

Please send your nights actions now.

Attending the party by invitation are
Guests (4)
Waiters (1)
VIP (1)
Body Guards (2)
Officers (1)
Stay on the lookout for a suspicious looking GUEST.

Daybreak D5:

Zigmen was Anthony Marinez (VIP) - The Franchise - Seer - View Alignment

Attending the party by invitation are
Guests (4)
Waiters (1)
Body Guards (1)
Officers (2)
Stay on the lookout for a suspicious looking VIP.

Looks like an officer decided to put on a bodyguard disguise instead during the night and then switch back at daybreak, but that makes little sense.

Gonzo, can you confirm that the above invitation lists are correct? Especially the middle one.

The latest one was a correction of the second. Red stuff was the mistake, the green stuff was correct. I was going to point it out but I couldn only find the incorrect part in my notes and didn't realize I posted that.

[Linus]

Linus, I stopped focusing on the Diva Was Killed By Agent 47 thing after Aza was killed by Bodyguards (according to Gonzo). The people who voted to lynch Aza were: Irre, Zigmen, Amok, Oblivion, Contra and RC. No bodyguards (Ani and Ksen). In this, at least, Contra was correct about it being a function of the video game plot.

Yeah, it could be just how some kills (mislynches?) are reported.

[oblivion]

Thanks, gonzo.

Linus, can you explain how you came up with <50% likelihood of agent 47 for r.c?

[amok]

If I had to vote right now, I'd vote RC.

In fact, I'll do it.

##vote RC##

But I fully intend to stay awake for another hour or so, and will default to a consensus of cleared players (everyone except Guest), to prevent a vote split.

[Linus]

Thanks, gonzo.

Linus, can you explain how you came up with <50% likelihood of agent 47 for r.c?

Since the probability must be distributed over several persons, a probability of over 50% for rc would be a pretty strong suspicion---I distribute the probability and suspicion more evenly.

[amok]

If my game-clock is correct, I should also be awake in time to change my vote tomorrow morning, if new arguments, one way or another, are presented.b

[Gonzo]

LYNCHEE
01. amok
02. gib
03. irre [1] Magic Ziggy
04. ksen
05. Linus [2.5] gib, irre
06. MagicZiggy
07. MattShizzle
08. oblivion
09. r.c. [2] Linus, amok

[oblivion]

Thanks, gonzo.

Linus, can you explain how you came up with <50% likelihood of agent 47 for r.c?

Since the probability must be distributed over several persons, a probability of over 50% for rc would be a pretty strong suspicion---I distribute the probability and suspicion more evenly.

and the basis is?