What to do about Iran?

[Ian]

Namely, that the guy on the cover is the one who's really in charge. And that he's well liked by those around him.

[Coito ergo sum]

"Like" should be a word that we eliminate from discussions about politics and foreign policy, IMHO. It is almost never about being liked. It's about power. None of them "like" each other, and even if they do that affinity is dependent on what they each can do for each other and get from each other. As soon as someone becomes a liability or loses usefulness, they're gone - like, or no like.

Saddam Hussein certainly did not take power in Iraq because he was "liked." Most likely, those in his "inner circle" didn't "like" him. They respected him and he enforced that respect. They feared him, and he enforced that fear.

Whether Ahmadinejad is "liked" is completely irrelevant. Now, the degree of power he has is certainly relevant, but I see no reason to think he is devoid of power. He may not be an absolute dictator, but whoever said he was?

[Ian]

True enough. But being surrounded by political rivals does not help one's position in terms of exerting power the way one would like. Influence among different elements within the government goes beyond what the powers of the office itself allow. They are amplified by, or constrained by, relationships between one person and another. In the case of Ahmadinejad, he's basically surrounded by other officials who can't stand him.

[Coito ergo sum]

Yes, but there is never a situation where one in Ahmadinejad's position is not surrounded by political rivals, and there is never a situation where officials like each other all that much.

Whether they "can't stand him" - well, I'm sure that depends. He must have allies, and he must have enemies. I doubt he's the ineffectual puppet certain folks want to make it out to be. On most of these issues, the opinion folks and talking heads spout predictable opinions. I feel I can predict what they'll say just by contemplating what is in their interest to say. I watch MSNBC shows like Maddow, and when she has "spokespeople"on for different parties or groups, I know what they're going to say. I don't even have to know the facts. This "Ahmadinejad is a powerless figurehead, mostly hated by his fellow Iranian officials" line serves an obvious purpose for those who align themselves with it.

[Ian]

I certainly wouldn't use the term "powerless figurehead". I know that that is not accurate at all. There's just a lot of tension between him and other elements of power in Tehran.

[Coito ergo sum]

I certainly wouldn't use the term "powerless figurehead". I know that that is not accurate at all. There's just a lot of tension between him and other elements of power in Tehran.

I can't imagine that ever being something that anyone wouldn't assume would be there. The key would be to find out where the tension lies.

[Ian]

I certainly wouldn't use the term "powerless figurehead". I know that that is not accurate at all. There's just a lot of tension between him and other elements of power in Tehran.

I can't imagine that ever being something that anyone wouldn't assume would be there. The key would be to find out where the tension lies.

I've seen some very specific charts on this subject drawn up by CIA analysts.
Didn't memorize them or anything - I'm not much of an Iran expert.

[pErvinalia]

I don't know who to trust on Iran anymore. I've heard all sorts of varying opinions/assessments on their nuclear program. And after the Iraq debacle, I just don't trust some sources anymore. But, shit, if it can be somehow proven that they are capable of building nuclear weapons, then they need to be stopped somehow. It's bad enough with North Korea, Pakistan and Israel having them. We don't need more rogue states having them.

Is there proof Israel has them? What source do you trust?

Of course Israel has them. It's the worst kept secret in the world. :facepalm:

[Coito ergo sum]

I don't know who to trust on Iran anymore. I've heard all sorts of varying opinions/assessments on their nuclear program. And after the Iraq debacle, I just don't trust some sources anymore. But, shit, if it can be somehow proven that they are capable of building nuclear weapons, then they need to be stopped somehow. It's bad enough with North Korea, Pakistan and Israel having them. We don't need more rogue states having them.

Is there proof Israel has them? What source do you trust?

Of course Israel has them. It's the worst kept secret in the world. :facepalm:

What source do you trust?

[Coito ergo sum]

'The day after Iran's first nuclear test is a normal day'
A bizarre article on a Revolutionary Guard website breaks a taboo by anticipating the impact of an Iranian bomb

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian- ... n-blogging

[Gawdzilla Sama]

There no cure for stupid.

Giving out enough rope usually works.

Only if they hang the right person. Saddam, for example.

[pErvinalia]

I don't know who to trust on Iran anymore. I've heard all sorts of varying opinions/assessments on their nuclear program. And after the Iraq debacle, I just don't trust some sources anymore. But, shit, if it can be somehow proven that they are capable of building nuclear weapons, then they need to be stopped somehow. It's bad enough with North Korea, Pakistan and Israel having them. We don't need more rogue states having them.

Is there proof Israel has them? What source do you trust?

Of course Israel has them. It's the worst kept secret in the world. :facepalm:

What source do you trust?

Mordechai Vanunu and Israel's actions towards him.

[Santa_Claus]

If I lived next to Pakiland, Afghanistan, Iraq and Russia - and with Israel down the road, only an idiot would not want Nukes.

For countries with a death wish I would be more worried about a culture based around religion inspired violence that has only been around for a few hundred years, rather than a civilisation that has existed since the birth of time.

[Coito ergo sum]

LOL - Apparently, the Obama Administration thinks it's fine to violate Iranian air space. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43819984/ns ... _n_africa/

No problem whatsoever. International law issues: only apply to the Bush administration.....

[Robert_S]

LOL - Apparently, the Obama Administration thinks it's fine to violate Iranian air space. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43819984/ns ... _n_africa/

No problem whatsoever. International law issues: only apply to the Bush administration.....

It's a matter of not being a douche about it really. I'm not being too facetious here either. When you build up a kind of cowboy image, it will color public perceptions when you do anything involving the military. Also, if you want to do some wild west shit, you need to get it over and done with with inside of about 6 months or the shtick starts getting tiresome.