Seismologists Tried for Manslaughter for Not Predicting Eart

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Kiki, try this: http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/episodes ... ction/130/

[cowiz]

They are after the wrong people. They should be suing god.

[Atheist-Lite]

You can't predict a earthquake, on a earthquake zone, but you can prepare for one and test your preparation procedures at regular intervals.

[Ronja]

Actually, you can at least give "early" warning for earthquakes, if you have enough sensors around in the area that can detect the first P-wave, and sound an alarm immediately, just before the usually more destructive S-wave hits. Then everyone has 1-5 minutes to get our of the house / dive under the table / stand in a doorway / whatever. But that's not exactly prediction, is it?

Source: Dirk Fahland, a friend form the ISCRAM community, who was a PhD student on the project. They gave up when they could not figure out how to motivate the people of Istanbul to keep the batteries charged in the hundreds of little detectors that would have been needed for the early warning system to really work.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Actually, you can at least give "early" warning for earthquakes, if you have enough sensors around in the area that can detect the first P-wave, and sound an alarm immediately, just before the usually more destructive S-wave hits. Then everyone has 1-5 minutes to get our of the house / dive under the table / stand in a doorway / whatever. But that's not exactly prediction, is it?

Source: Dirk Fahland, a friend form the ISCRAM community, who was a PhD student on the project. They gave up when they could not figure out how to motivate the people of Istanbul to keep the batteries charged in the hundreds of little detectors that would have been needed for the early warning system to really work.

A seismologist in Italy was charged with "endangering the public safety" for predicting a major eruption of Vesuvius a few years back. His window was about 20 years, IIRC, so it still might happen.

[Atheist-Lite]

If their diverting resources from preparation into the prediction business there might just be a case to be made - especially if their using data to downplay risks and giving out a false sense of security. This might be the basis of a legal case?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

If their diverting resources from preparation into the prediction business there might just be a case to be made - especially if their using data to downplay risks and giving out a false sense of security. This might be the basis of a legal case?

Actually, people panicked and over-reacted. I guess warning of a severe storm is now illegal in Italy.

[Atheist-Lite]

If their diverting resources from preparation into the prediction business there might just be a case to be made - especially if their using data to downplay risks and giving out a false sense of security. This might be the basis of a legal case?

Actually, people panicked and over-reacted. I guess warning of a severe storm is now illegal in Italy.

Other stuff is probably happening in their society. A loss of trust in authority, with their political scandals and things. Wouldn't take this as a barometer of ignorance, quite the opposite.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

If their diverting resources from preparation into the prediction business there might just be a case to be made - especially if their using data to downplay risks and giving out a false sense of security. This might be the basis of a legal case?

Actually, people panicked and over-reacted. I guess warning of a severe storm is now illegal in Italy.

Other stuff is probably happening in their society. A loss of trust in authority, with their political scandals and things. Wouldn't take this as a barometer of ignorance, quite the opposite.

Nah, this happened in isolation, separate from any history, sociology or psychology that might have been included otherwise.

[kiki5711]

Actually, you can at least give "early" warning for earthquakes, if you have enough sensors around in the area that can detect the first P-wave, and sound an alarm immediately, just before the usually more destructive S-wave hits. Then everyone has 1-5 minutes to get our of the house / dive under the table / stand in a doorway / whatever. But that's not exactly prediction, is it?

Source: Dirk Fahland, a friend form the ISCRAM community, who was a PhD student on the project. They gave up when they could not figure out how to motivate the people of Istanbul to keep the batteries charged in the hundreds of little detectors that would have been needed for the early warning system to really work.

You're right. I think we're using the word "prediction" here in several ways. I didn't mean it to sound as if some magic prediction, or premonition. I meant it precisely based on science of animal behavior during changes in climates and "sensing" rather than "predicting" an oncoming disaster.

Humans are not in touch with nature as well as animals are so we're having to rely on other means.

[borealis]

This suing thing is going too far...

[kiki5711]

Kiki, try this: http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/episodes ... ction/130/

thanks for the video. very interesting.

[Lozzer]

It's not their fault...line.

[Svartalf]

that's stupid beyond belief

I sure hope the charges get dismissed in a hurry... Italy was one of the few countries where the justice system still commanded a modicum of my respect.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I've heard that they failed to word a statement perfectly. They apparently said "there is no danger of an earthquake" without adding any waffle-words to it, like "to the best information we have" or "as far as current technology will allow us to discover." So naturally, so lawyer spotted that faux pas and it was off the chariot races...