Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

[Coito ergo sum]

Well, it was unpredictable under Kim.

It may be a little different under the new guy, unless you know something we don't.

Not really. Just don't see any reason to expect much to change. His grandad taught his dad who taught him. Tyranny in the family. He'll inherit the same military regime, which, if what the highest-ranking defector said is true, is determined to reunite by force.

If that is true, they are living in cloud-cuckoo land, surely...

Maybe they're looking at Vietnam as an example. There would probably be a lot of opposition to, certainly U.S. involvement, I would imagine. A lot of people over here, particularly on the American liberal or left side of the spectrum, have advocated that the US get out of South Korea, claiming we have no business there. And, certainly anyone who opposed the Persian Gulf War on the principle that it wasn't out business to make Hussein get out of Kuwait ought to oppose US involvement in a new Korean war.

[FBM]

There are a handful of real indicators to tell if they're serious about attacking, but they're also good and denial & deception (D&D) techniques. IMO, if and when the big attack finally comes, it'll be preceded by a "routine" crisis and military standup. The Yom Kippur War was preceded by yet another (of many) Egyptian army exercises, with the Israelis telling themselves that an attack was, again, unlikely.

Spy plane recon and satellites may give the earliest warning of an impending attack. The South had info before the last one, but ignored it.

If one thing is predictable about the North's behavior, it's that it's nearly impossible to predict with any accuracy.

You never did tell me if you read those books I gave you the URLs for.

Uhm. Was that more than 2 days ago?

[GreyICE]

Maybe it was just the hardline faction of the military. Surely they can't all be that deluded, eh?

Delusion is easy when you're living inside that big of a bubble. I mean their army is 70% of the size of the US army! They have tons of people and troops! They're all willing to die, Americans and Koreans aren't!

I mean yes, we understand the concept that force multipliers mean that there's no actual way that 100,000 North Korean soldiers could threaten 5,000 American soldiers, but on the ground in North Korea, it may be very difficult to realize the exact differences in equipment, coordination, and training leading to force multipliers that goddamn huge.

[Robert_S]

Well, it was unpredictable under Kim.

It may be a little different under the new guy, unless you know something we don't.

Not really. Just don't see any reason to expect much to change. His grandad taught his dad who taught him. Tyranny in the family. He'll inherit the same military regime, which, if what the highest-ranking defector said is true, is determined to reunite by force.

If that is true, they are living in cloud-cuckoo land, surely...

Maybe they're looking at Vietnam as an example. There would probably be a lot of opposition to, certainly U.S. involvement, I would imagine. A lot of people over here, particularly on the American liberal or left side of the spectrum, have advocated that the US get out of South Korea, claiming we have no business there. And, certainly anyone who opposed the Persian Gulf War on the principle that it wasn't out business to make Hussein get out of Kuwait ought to oppose US involvement in a new Korean war.

I say that if we get involved at all, we should not step foot across the DMZ. Air and naval support are fine, along with troops defending current South Korean territory though. Our guys seem to be a bit fried from Iraq and Afghanistan right now.

[Coito ergo sum]

Well, it was unpredictable under Kim.

It may be a little different under the new guy, unless you know something we don't.

Not really. Just don't see any reason to expect much to change. His grandad taught his dad who taught him. Tyranny in the family. He'll inherit the same military regime, which, if what the highest-ranking defector said is true, is determined to reunite by force.

If that is true, they are living in cloud-cuckoo land, surely...

Maybe they're looking at Vietnam as an example. There would probably be a lot of opposition to, certainly U.S. involvement, I would imagine. A lot of people over here, particularly on the American liberal or left side of the spectrum, have advocated that the US get out of South Korea, claiming we have no business there. And, certainly anyone who opposed the Persian Gulf War on the principle that it wasn't out business to make Hussein get out of Kuwait ought to oppose US involvement in a new Korean war.

I say that if we get involved at all, we should not step foot across the DMZ. Air and naval support are fine, along with troops defending current South Korean territory though. Our guys seem to be a bit fried from Iraq and Afghanistan right now.

That ain't the way you win wars. That's the way you leave Vietnam 10 years later, because people at home get tired of counting body bags.

[Ian]

Winter's a-comin'. The north probably wouldn't launch a full-scale attack during winter. FBM should be safe for at least four more months.

[Robert_S]

Well, it was unpredictable under Kim.

It may be a little different under the new guy, unless you know something we don't.

Not really. Just don't see any reason to expect much to change. His grandad taught his dad who taught him. Tyranny in the family. He'll inherit the same military regime, which, if what the highest-ranking defector said is true, is determined to reunite by force.

If that is true, they are living in cloud-cuckoo land, surely...

Maybe they're looking at Vietnam as an example. There would probably be a lot of opposition to, certainly U.S. involvement, I would imagine. A lot of people over here, particularly on the American liberal or left side of the spectrum, have advocated that the US get out of South Korea, claiming we have no business there. And, certainly anyone who opposed the Persian Gulf War on the principle that it wasn't out business to make Hussein get out of Kuwait ought to oppose US involvement in a new Korean war.

I say that if we get involved at all, we should not step foot across the DMZ. Air and naval support are fine, along with troops defending current South Korean territory though. Our guys seem to be a bit fried from Iraq and Afghanistan right now.

That ain't the way you win wars. That's the way you leave Vietnam 10 years later, because people at home get tired of counting body bags.

I figure we could let the South Korean army go on the offensive while our lot keep their hot Korean chicks warm guard their territory against attack.

[Blondie]

That ain't the way you win wars. That's the way you leave Vietnam 10 years later, because people at home get tired of counting body bags.

I don't see the US winning any wars right now.

Afganistan saw the Soviets out, the British out, and they'll see the so-called coalition (America's coerced "allies") out as well. Iraq? Hah. So long as there is oil the war pays for itself.

Go fuck a donkey.

[FBM]

Winter's a-comin'. The north probably wouldn't launch a full-scale attack during winter. FBM should be safe for at least four more months.

[Ian]

Winter's a-comin'. The north probably wouldn't launch a full-scale attack during winter. FBM should be safe for at least four more months.

It's Miller Time!
Just have your passport ready come springtime.

Trigger Warning!!!1! :

I hope is appropriate!

[FBM]

Winter's a-comin'. The north probably wouldn't launch a full-scale attack during winter. FBM should be safe for at least four more months.

It's Miller Time!
Just have your passport ready come springtime.

My passport has been in 24/7 readiness mode since Sept. 1996.

Trigger Warning!!!1! :

I hope is appropriate!

Unless you're making a pass at me, it's cool.

[Ian]

No worries. I've done some top secret-level calculations, and I've deduced that the most likely possibility for the future of Korea is that Japan will re-invade in a lightning-fast campaign at the request of China, and will turn Korea into a colony once more. Casualties will be minimal, though you may have to learn Japanese at some point. I could be wrong, but time will tell.

[FBM]

No worries. I've done some top secret-level calculations, and I've deduced that the most likely possibility for the future of Korea is that Japan will re-invade in a lightning-fast campaign at the request of China, and will turn Korea into a colony once more. Casualties will be minimal, though you may have to learn Japanese at some point. I could be wrong, but time will tell.

Uhmmm....Yeeaaah. Or rather, doomo arigato.

[Coito ergo sum]

That ain't the way you win wars. That's the way you leave Vietnam 10 years later, because people at home get tired of counting body bags.

I don't see the US winning any wars right now.

Afganistan saw the Soviets out, the British out, and they'll see the so-called coalition (America's coerced "allies") out as well. Iraq? Hah. So long as there is oil the war pays for itself.

Go fuck a donkey.

You don't? Probably some heightened definition of "win" you're using. The Iraq War is won. The invasion itself in 2003 was unparalleled in its success. There is hardly a comparison in the annals of warfare where a country of the size of Iraq was seized in such short order. There likely isn't a country in the world today who could have been as successful. There was a fair bit of guerilla warfare after that, and it appears that the US has prevailed. Iraq has a new government, and Parliamentary elections occur. Whether it was right or wrong to invade int he first place, it has ultimately proved successful.

Afghanistan took even less time than Iraq, and has been overall a general success. We'll eventually "leave" of course, but we left Europe and Japan a few years after World War 2 - doesn't mean we lost those theaters.

Why are you all bunged up and telling me to go fuck a donkey? Guess you're just another one of those gits who can't discuss the topic rationally...gotta always personalize it and hurl insults. Whatever blows your dress up, buddy. Have at it.

[Hermit]

The Iraq War is won. The invasion itself in 2003 was unparalleled in its success.

"Afghanistan? Easy to get in, difficult to get out" That was the advice the incumbent Prime Minister got from one of his generals in 1847. Apparently, the lesson has not been learnt by the Soviet Union or by other powers in regard to other wars.