Here comes the other economic shoe dropping...

[affirmedatheist]

It's going to take decades for the US to dig itself out from the abyss, and the US that climbs out will not be the same one that went in. It will be a shadow of itself at peak. Still a significant player, but not a superpower.

I wouldn't be surprised if the US fractures like the USSR did, though I suspect into fewer pieces.

[LaMont Cranston]

affirmedatheist, I believe that many of us think that the economic situation in the US is much worse than many politicians and others want to admit to, that there is no quick fix and that the role of the US as a superpower and all that goes with it is changing, hopefully for the better. That being said, it is highly unlikely that this country will fracture into pieces. That's already been tried; it was called the Civil War, and the North won. There have always been those who have advocated things like "let's give all of those colored folks their own country so we can pretend they don't exist," or who have pushed for some kind of separation, but, generally speaking, those people are a very small minority, and they look like nut cases.

[Robert_S]

Soooo... We can has manufacturing again?

You know, that thing where you actually make something that other people want because they want to USE it, not because they think some greater fool will pay a more outrageously inflated price for it?

[Feck]

Soooo... We can has manufacturing again?

You know, that thing where you actually make something that other people want because they want to USE it, not because they think some greater fool will pay a more outrageously inflated price for it?

That might just work ...

[affirmedatheist]

Oh, for the record I don't think the US will splinter, I just wouldn't be surprised if it did.

Regardless, the US will be one of two things in 50 years:

Either a less influential, and somewhat more humble citizen in the global community, albeit still with influence or;

A smouldering wreck of a country that is bitterly divided, and potentially some kind of theocracy or dictatorship...

It mightnt splinter, but it will be a very different place regardless.

I personally hope it becomes option 1.

For the record, I'm commenting as an outsider here.

[Feck]

Predicting a humble USA or a fractured country in 50 years .....I doubt it . I think there might be less of a world policeman attitude by then but it will still be a Major player .

[Warren Dew]

Soooo... We can has manufacturing again?

I hope not. "Things you can touch but don't help feed, clothe, or shelter you" - which is to say manufactured goods - simply aren't important enough to be the foundation of a modern economy. Automobiles may be an exception, but the vast majority of autos sold in the U.S. are made here as well, albeit many under foreign nameplates.

The way to the future is through networked services, not manufactured goods.

Oh, for the record I don't think the US will splinter, I just wouldn't be surprised if it did.

Soviet style fracturing practically requires not only different cultures, but different languages.

Still, that could happen in the southwestern U.S. While I don't think it's the mostly likely thing to happen, I could see the Mexican cartels ultimately developing into a new independent state in northwestern Mexico and parts of the southwestern U.S.

That's a very different time scale than "the other economic shoe", though.

[Coito ergo sum]

US Dow Jones industrial average has worst month in nine years: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... Collection

[Warren Dew]

It's not actually the worst month in 9 years; it's just the worst August in 9 years. Other months have been worse more recently.

Still, certainly not a good sign.

[affirmedatheist]

Predicting a humble USA or a fractured country in 50 years .....I doubt it . I think there might be less of a world policeman attitude by then but it will still be a Major player .

That's what I meant when I said humble, a more considerate player, a bit more like europe's general mindset. I agree it'll still be a fairly large player, something in the vein of Europe now. Hopefully like Europe in regards to its lesser degree of batshit fundie influence as well, but I wouldn't bet on that.

In general I hope the US thinks things through more. Its last decade has been a disaster.

[Coito ergo sum]

Beware the Obama tax hikes: http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/fo ... 1_ST_N.htm

US unemployment up again.... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... TopStories

[Coito ergo sum]

In the "recovery summer" the US economy lost almost 300,000 jobs.

But, the President says we are "on the right track." Tell me this - if McCain was President, would you give him a pass on that?

And, in 120 days we are facing the largest tax increase in American history: http://www.atr.org/days-thebr-largest-t ... tory-a5370#

In case you were wondering if it's just "the rich" or if Obama would stick to his promise that "nobody making under $250,000 would see one dime of a tax increase" -- here are the tax bracket increases.... everyone is getting it in the buttocks. I recall in 1991 when Bush, Sr. was running, and it was the greatest sin of all time that he promised "no new taxes" and then he didn't veto a tax increase bill. Will Obama get a pass on this?

The full list of marginal rate hikes is below:
- The 10% bracket rises to an expanded 15%
- The 25% bracket rises to 28%
- The 28% bracket rises to 31%
- The 33% bracket rises to 36%
- The 35% bracket rises to 39.6%

Read more: http://www.atr.org/days-thebr-largest-t ... z0yUxcq71w

[Ian]

He was right about the bottom 95% - the tax increase was supposed to be further down the road. After two years of his administration, tax hikes were in the plan.

And I say it's about friggin' time! RAISE MY TAXES, MR. PRESIDENT.

I'll give him a BIG pass on this. And a nice sloppy kiss in the form of donations to his 2012 campaign if he has the sack to bring taxes back up.

I'm sure plenty of people will whine about "getting it in the buttocks" when taxes go back up. Those are the same people who gave Bush Jr. a pass when his tax cuts drove the budget on a nosedive into trillions of dollars in red ink, and today they blast Obama for presiding over a giant budget shortfall. No doubt they also ignore things like a stimulus package being completely inevitable whether Obama or McCain was elected, or history such as the great conservative Reagan raising taxes six times during his administration. To use a recent Obama soundbite, the conservatives are betting on people having amnesia. To hell with them. They offer nothing more than baseline theories; "lower taxes = growth". My arse. The budget has been getting it in the buttocks for nearly a decade already, and every citizen along with it.

[Warren Dew]

Let the tax cuts expire completely, and we'll see a second dip that extends right on into 2012 - at which point the Republicans will lock up the government for longer than the Democrats did in 1932.

Not a good result, in my opinion. One party rule tends to be overly extremist, from either party.

[Ian]

Let the tax cuts expire completely, and we'll see a second dip that extends right on into 2012 - at which point the Republicans will lock up the government for longer than the Democrats did in 1932.

Not a good result, in my opinion. One party rule tends to be overly extremist, from either party.

Fair enough, IMO. I'd be OK with keeping them partly in place, at least until the recovery picks up speed again. Simply keeping them fully in place or fully gone once they expire are both not so good ideas.