Boy Band Mafia

[oblivion]

ack...thought I was in the peanut gallery. that last post was a reply to something Feck posted in the PG.

[irretating]

Right...
I'm open to suggestions.
Does that exit have the fingerprint of Oblivion.
I think not. Which is what I'd be expecting to think if it were.

Circular... round and round. Sorry, but this w/e is very busy. Will post again before daybreak.

Gah. I'm glad we got one. My brain is mush, can't help anyone tonight...

[irretating]

braindumping, though I suspect I'll be alive tomorrow. the wifom is just too tasty.

The scum almost have to be either ani or twinkie. There will be 4 players tomorrow morning. This is just about the only situation where voting nolynch makes sense, when you have 1 scum left and 3 town. you force the scum to do a last night kill and then it's 2 town to 1 scum and you have the additional info about who was eliminated on the final night. Otherwise, town players each have to choose between 3 possible scum, and that's harder to nail down than 2. And it will be game over after the lynch because 2 town and 1 scum entering the night means 1 to 1 the next day.

If I'm alive in the morning, that's what I'm going to do - vote nolynch, unless something from the night results suggests otherwise.

both Ani and Twinkie have been scummy. Twinkie outed late-ish in the day after being sledged a bit. Ani volunteered his alignment first thing in the morning. generally, early outs are less scummy looking than late outs. Also, I sledged the hell out of ani today and he held up well.

Twinkie has several times asserted that she's sure that someone else is town -- MZ and Ani to be precise. That's also a scum tactic and sometimes a scum mistake. I've made the mistake myself, and occasionally been caught as a result.

Anyway...see you in the morning, and good luck in the (unlikely) event that I am dead.

Thanks for that

[oblivion]

It's a strange game when I trust the vanilla town players more than the specials.

Still...I think Ani is more likely to be town than twinkie. I think I had the right idea on day 2.

Listing the living players in most townish to least townish order:

consider doing the same, and we can talk about the differences in our lists:

Feral P - gave me the most info about the vanilla role PM

MZ - not as much info, but all correct and right off the bat - he posted within minutes of me, and he had the syntax correct - something I didn't give them in my post.

Ani - voluntarily outed today and did so early. Held up well under my heavy sledging, also volunteered some info about the town special role PM.

Twinkie - outed late after mild sledging. volunteered nothing about the town special role pm (ani might be able to do something with this - ani, ask about the number of punctuation marks in the band rocks part of the pm, for instance, or something else that could point up a discrepancy. She tried to sidestep the whole vanilla role pm thing until I finally got feral's attention to it.

I have played the most protown game I know how to play. I nailed 2 scum, and one was damned hard, since I was the lynch leader. I know that's not good enough. Nothing is good enough.

but guys - go read the Spooks game and compare how I played then to how I played this time. I think just about anyone could see the difference in my game style, whether you buy the results or not.

http://rationalia.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=81&t=12195

If you don't have time to read the whole thing, the endgame starts on page 23. http://rationalia.com/forum/viewtopic.p ... &start=550

[Magicziggy]

Cool, Oblivion. I'll have a read.... when i get an hour, which just might happen.
Might end up being a coin toss. Interesting that neither special has had any effect.
That is making me rethink my "declared specials must be telling the truth" stance.

I do think that FPs posts today have been protown. Mind you, I've only skimmed and guess what... I have to go again.
I really do need an hour straight to think this through. I will get that before daybreak and dump some thoughts then.

[oblivion]

One last thought and then I *hope* I can hit the sack.

Ask yourself this: If you were scum who would you try to kill tonight?

The seer? (if the seer isn't dead but someone else dies, there are a few possibilities - the remaining scum player views as town, the seer isn't really a seer...)

The doc? (the doc should be protecting the seer tonight -- any other protection tonight is anti-town because we are at endgame and tonight is the last chance for a useful view.

The pain in the ass vanilla townie? (has directly contributed to two scum lynches and eluded what looked like a certain day 3 lynch. Might be lynchable on day 4. Or might be scum.)

all three of us are potentially scum. It's reached a point in the game where whichever one of us turns up night killed, you have to ask yourself why the others are still alive. Then you have to figure out if one of them isn't what they seem.

[irretating]

Oblivion, could you please run this game design through your whizz bang game balancing spreadsheet, and let us know in your opinion how likely it is that this game has a doc (I know it does, it is me), a seer and a vigilante?

I will find it difficult to come up with any name other than yours for lynching tomorrow. Assuming I survive. Which, if you are the scum I think you are, is possible if you think that's enough to get me lynched so you win the game. If oblivion is scum, she will kill feral (most likely) or ziggy.

So...let's see what happens overnight, eh? If I'm killed everyone will know I was the doc, and things won't look rosy for oblivion. She can't kill Ani tonight. Ziggy seems to be wavering, so I think feral is for the chop. Oh, and if there is no kill tonight, it will reaffirm that I am the doc and I protected Ani.

It all looks sorted, from my perspective.

[Feral_Punctuation]

Oblivion: trying again to make sure you know where the protection goes? The scum that's left is very probably the don, which makes the seer's view almost certainly usless AND misleading. A better choice would be trying to protect whoever we think is going to get killed.

8 Ani - posted screenshots of the PMs showing he's seer. Most trusted for this reason.

7 twinkie - There's no counterclaim for doctor. Still possible there is no doc, though.
2 Oblivion - knew the role PM
10 MZ - Lynched Budski. Oblivion says he knew the role PM, but from what I can see he could have parroted it and got lucky.

So either Twinkie took a big risk and got lucky. I don't think this happened, though.
Oblivion could have known about the PM before, or possibly been sent it by Zigmen.
OR MZ lynched Budski to gain favour. Doesn't seem too likely either since they surely would have had Denny vote for him as well...

Or have I missed something?

[irretating]

Does anyone else wonder why oblivion to this point not share her knowledge about game balancing?

Well, let me enlighten everyone:

vanilla scum: 2 [weighting of -4.5, total -9]
don: 1 [weighting of -6, total -6]
seer: 1 [weighting of 3, total 3]
doc: 1 [weighting of 3, total 3]
vigi: 1 [weighting of 3, total 3]
vanilla town: 5 [weighting of 1, total 5]
total players: 11 [net balance: -1]

If there were no seer, then the game would be imbalanced. Same with doc.

QED people.... oblivion is the only one to know this.. yet she hasn't reveal it. She is SCUM!!!!

[Feral_Punctuation]

She did reveal it. Then she went back and said she thought there was only two scum to start with.

[Feral_Punctuation]

I think we have to apply Ockham's Razor to some of this.

I'm a little leary about the razor given the last two game designs and Zigmen's level of experience as a GM, but this game so far has seemed to depend on traditional mafia mechanics.
3 scum would be 27%. 2 would be 18%

1 in 4 or 1 in 5 is the usual scum ratio. 3 scum is 1 in 3.6. Town would need to be revved up a little in order for 3 scum to be balanced. there should be a seer. a doc and vig are usually valued at 3 vanilla town. a seer is valued at 6 vanilla town. vig plus doc seems low. vig or doc plus seer seems right. vig + doc + seer suggests there is a don or role blocker. Probably don.

[irretating]

I think we have to apply Ockham's Razor to some of this.

I'm a little leary about the razor given the last two game designs and Zigmen's level of experience as a GM, but this game so far has seemed to depend on traditional mafia mechanics.
3 scum would be 27%. 2 would be 18%

1 in 4 or 1 in 5 is the usual scum ratio. 3 scum is 1 in 3.6. Town would need to be revved up a little in order for 3 scum to be balanced. there should be a seer. a doc and vig are usually valued at 3 vanilla town. a seer is valued at 6 vanilla town. vig plus doc seems low. vig or doc plus seer seems right. vig + doc + seer suggests there is a don or role blocker. Probably don.

Ah, thanks feral. Oblivion confirms then, what we all know, which is ani is seer, I am doc. That she is putting question on us (and on everyone, which is weird because there are cleared players) is just a massive scum flail.

[Feral_Punctuation]

There is just one problem I have, which is the role PMs. How could she have known about them?

[Feral_Punctuation]

In order:

My role is vanilla town, and my band rocks. with a capital R.

I'm vanilla town. And my band rocks!

My band Rocks with 3 exclamation marks.

I had claimed I was vanilla town before, I think.

[Feral_Punctuation]

Look at the detail. There are three main points:
Saying the band rocks. The capital 'R' in 'rocks'. The exclamation marks (three of them). MZ missed two of the three factors, adding nothing and leaving details already given to him out. I added info. Oblivion added info.