Fermi Paradox?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Real/achievable technology is much more interesting ... like Project Orion:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Or ... pulsion%29

I disagree.

Dreamy wankfestish technology is far more exciting.

That's only one stop removed from believing in fairies ... and angels.

Bullcrap. Sci-fi feeds science and science feeds sci-fi. I suspect that Jules Verne was told the same thing.

Yes, but then people scoffed at the thought of much more mundane developments as well, like street lighting. We now live in a era completely focused on what might be possible in the short-term and long-term. It doesn't mean we'll always get it right of course, but we're much more in tune to technological progress that people were in days of yore. We have to be, because it moves so fast in some areas (but not all).

I might live to see humans land on Mars or beyond (I've been waiting long enough), or see a space elevator, or asteroid mining. But interstellar travel, let alone quick'n'easy gallivanting about the galaxy ... a different ball game altogether. The Fermi paradox is not to be dismissed lightly.

The Fermi paradox is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations.

[klr]

Enrico would like his surname fixed. Fermie sounds distinctly Scottish.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Borrowed the above post from the Warp thread and added the link for those unfamiliar with this.

I don't see a problem with the lack of alien civilizations here-and-now. The universe is big, the chances of two civilization being close enough to contact each other is commonly considered to be low. The chances that another civilization could be visiting us right now are even slimer, IMHO.

[devogue]

Borrowed the above post from the Warp thread and added the link for those unfamiliar with this.

I don't see a problem with the lack of alien civilizations here-and-now. The universe is big, the chances of two civilization being close enough to contact each other is commonly considered to be low. The chances that another civilization could be visiting us right now are even slimer, IMHO.

Slimmer or slimier?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Borrowed the above post from the Warp thread and added the link for those unfamiliar with this.

I don't see a problem with the lack of alien civilizations here-and-now. The universe is big, the chances of two civilization being close enough to contact each other is commonly considered to be low. The chances that another civilization could be visiting us right now are even slimer, IMHO.

Slimmer or slimier?

For a B.E.M. to be a B.E.M., there must be slime.

[klr]

Borrowed the above post from the Warp thread and added the link for those unfamiliar with this.

I don't see a problem with the lack of alien civilizations here-and-now. The universe is big, the chances of two civilization being close enough to contact each other is commonly considered to be low. The chances that another civilization could be visiting us right now are even slimer, IMHO.

That's the gist of what Rico was getting at. Space and geological time are huge. An "advanced" civilization could appear and then disappear again just like that. It could be that highly intelligent life evolved on some other planet in this part of the galaxy hundreds of millions of years ago (while the Dinos were still in charge here), but has long since died out.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Borrowed the above post from the Warp thread and added the link for those unfamiliar with this.

I don't see a problem with the lack of alien civilizations here-and-now. The universe is big, the chances of two civilization being close enough to contact each other is commonly considered to be low. The chances that another civilization could be visiting us right now are even slimer, IMHO.

That's the gist of what Rico was getting at. Space and geological time are huge. An "advanced" civilization could appear and then disappear again just like that. It could be that highly intelligent life evolved on some other planet in this part of the galaxy hundreds of millions of years ago (while the Dinos were still in charge here), but has long since died out.

Several questions for Fermi:

1. Why would they come here?
2. When would they come here?
3. Would we know it if they came here?
4. IF they're out there, why would we be able to know they're there?

[Deep Sea Isopod]

Borrowed the above post from the Warp thread and added the link for those unfamiliar with this.

I don't see a problem with the lack of alien civilizations here-and-now. The universe is big, the chances of two civilization being close enough to contact each other is commonly considered to be low. The chances that another civilization could be visiting us right now are even slimer, IMHO.

That's the gist of what Rico was getting at. Space and geological time are huge. An "advanced" civilization could appear and then disappear again just like that. It could be that highly intelligent life evolved on some other planet in this part of the galaxy hundreds of millions of years ago (while the Dinos were still in charge here), but has long since died out.

Several questions for Fermi:

1. Why would they come here?
2. When would they come here?
3. Would we know it if they came here?
4. IF they're out there, why would we be able to know they're there?

5. If we were out, when they came here, would they leave a card through the door?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Borrowed the above post from the Warp thread and added the link for those unfamiliar with this.

I don't see a problem with the lack of alien civilizations here-and-now. The universe is big, the chances of two civilization being close enough to contact each other is commonly considered to be low. The chances that another civilization could be visiting us right now are even slimer, IMHO.

That's the gist of what Rico was getting at. Space and geological time are huge. An "advanced" civilization could appear and then disappear again just like that. It could be that highly intelligent life evolved on some other planet in this part of the galaxy hundreds of millions of years ago (while the Dinos were still in charge here), but has long since died out.

Several questions for Fermi:

1. Why would they come here?
2. When would they come here?
3. Would we know it if they came here?
4. IF they're out there, why would we be able to know they're there?

5. If we were out, when they came here, would they leave a card through the door?

That's actually my favorite. ~2.5 billion years of life on this planet was cyanobacteria only. Visitors would not be impressed, and I doubt they'd put up a monument to their visit anywhere.

[Clinton Huxley]

We've only got one data-point with regards to how likely it is for life to develop and zero data-points as to the likelihood of intelligent life arising. Any discussion about the number of alien species in the cosmos is ltherefore ittle more than an exercise in pulling numbers out of your backside.

[AshtonBlack]

We've only got one data-point with regards to how likely it is for life to develop and zero data-points as to the likelihood of intelligent life arising. Any discussion about the number of alien species in the cosmos is ltherefore ittle more than an exercise in pulling numbers out of your backside.

....more commonly known as Drake's Equation.

[klr]

And here's what it looks like when extracted from Mr. Drake's posterior:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

The Drake equation states that:

N = R^{\ast} \times f_p \times n_e \times f_{\ell} \times f_i \times f_c \times L \!

where:

N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;

and

R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.[2]

[Gawdzilla Sama]

We've only got one data-point with regards to how likely it is for life to develop and zero data-points as to the likelihood of intelligent life arising. Any discussion about the number of alien species in the cosmos is ltherefore ittle more than an exercise in pulling numbers out of your backside.

I never discuss numbers. Much too much of way too little for that.

[AshtonBlack]

And here's what it looks like when extracted from Mr. Drake's posterior:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

The Drake equation states that:

N = R^{\ast} \times f_p \times n_e \times f_{\ell} \times f_i \times f_c \times L \!

where:

N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;

and

R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.[2]

Indeed.... some of those numbers can be informed guesses, but the vast majority is certainly, at the moment, rectal yankage.

[Clinton Huxley]

Yeah, the equation gives you a framework in which to talk about the concept of alien life but any numbers derived from it are, at the moment, cobblers.