American Politics from 2019 on

[Tero]

Quite hard to run a race for democrats. Leaving the Biden leaving option open will mess things up.

Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.) downplayed concerns among Democrats that President Biden should end his presidential campaign, saying Sunday that he doesn’t believe members calling on him to leave will have an impact.

Five Democratic House members have so far called on Biden to leave the race publicly amid concerns about his age and ability to win the November election.

“Can Biden run a successful campaign? I believe he can because, ultimately, it’s about two individuals,” he continued. “One is a serial liar who has not been able to present even the minimum qualifications to be an Eagle Scout. Those are the issues of being able to present himself as a viable individual.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... step-down/

The polling still has the polled people looking for the alpha male.

[Sean Hayden]

Of course it has an impact, Christ. There’s a difference between Republicans saying Biden is unfit, and his own party saying it. One is expected and more easily ignored as more of the same, the other is an acknowledgement of, a validation of, what you’re trying to say is —yep “just more of the same bs”

Thankfully most of these fears ignore that we’re ultimately talking about mobs, not rational individuals. So yeah, your own party calling your president unfit should matter…but a twiddle here, a twist there, and maybe it doesn’t.

[L'Emmerdeur]

If the Democratic Party's panic brigade wants to switch horses in mid-stream they need to have a viable candidate who's ready and willing to step up. Somebody who can help convince Biden to step aside. On the other hand, being the public face of the effort comes with risk of its own.

There's also the issue of Biden having won the primary vote. I suppose they can find a way around that, but on its face it denies the votes of all the Democratic voters who pulled the lever for Biden.

The mainstream media enthusiastically encouraging the panic is 'helpful.'

[JimC]

There does not seem to be another "viable candidate"...

[macdoc]

Mrs Obama...

[pErvinalia]

Do it for your country, Michelle!

[Tero]

Jobs in rust belt and the post pandemic years:

Good morning. Today, my colleague Jim Tankersley is writing about some good news for the U.S. economy. We’re also covering President Biden, Israeli anti-government protests and Wimbledon. —David Leonhardt
The political fallout
Researchers say it’s too soon to know exactly what’s changed, but there are theories. The pandemic disrupted some long-running patterns of where Americans live and work; some people appear to have fled cities like New York for remote jobs — or for the chance to start a new company — in less expensive areas.

Under both Trump and Biden, the government lavished Americans with pandemic assistance, like direct checks for lower-income and middle-class workers and forgivable loans for business owners. Many people saved that money, and they may have used it to start businesses and create jobs in left-behind counties.

Whatever the explanation, though, Biden probably should not expect voters in those areas to reward him electorally. Many left-behind counties are solidly Republican, or have moved to the right since Trump first ran. And for all their job and business gains, left-behind counties were hurt by high inflation in the early Biden years. In 2021 and 2022, the typical household income in those counties fell, after adjusting for rising prices. Those price increases have left voters unhappy with Biden on the economy, no matter where they live.

NYT morning letter

[Tero]

Biden is now deporting more people than Trump
Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have pledged to return more migrants to their home countries, with differing approaches as immigration has emerged as a top issue in the coming U.S. election rematch.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-EL ... peoeoerpr/

graph right edge is deporations 4 Biden years

[Tero]

The Hill continies NY Post idea of Kamala being just DEI, a black recruitment hire:
In that universe, the Democratic Party never genuflected to identity politics amid the 2020 Black Lives Matter unrest. Joe Biden wasn’t forced to choose a running mate as unpopular as Kamala Harris, who had been the first Democratic candidate to flame out of the primaries just months earlier.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/47 ... -universe/

https://nypost.com/2024/07/06/business/ ... la-harris/

[Brian Peacock]

We call it Equality, Diversity and Inclusion, EDI. You call it DEI. The right-wing UK media always call it DIE.

[Sean Hayden]

It’s hard to believe people make a living writing anything as bad as that NY Post piece.

[Tero]

Johnson want Biden out so Trump can easily defeat Kamala, who is just a woman.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) suggested Tuesday that President Biden should be removed from office under the 25th Amendment, which Cabinet members can invoke if they believe the president “is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... den-trump/

[Tero]

let's say Biden stays in...

Within the individual states, Biden leads former President Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, cementing several months of slightly improved performance, but has no advantage in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

https://pro.morningconsult.com/

Pennsylvania may be essential to win the election.

[pErvinalia]

He's going to lose.

[Tero]

A Five Thirty Eight analysis of polls found Harris’ odds of winning the Electoral College over Trump are slightly better than Biden’s (38% versus 35%), but when various economic and political factors are incorporated, in addition to polls, Five Thirty Eight found Biden’s odds of winning swing states and the Electoral College against Trump are better than Harris’—48% to 31%.

Democratic polling firm Bendixen & Amandi found Harris beating the former president 42% to 41% (margin of error 3.1) in a survey released Tuesday and first obtained by Politico, while Biden, Whitmer and Newsom all trail Trump.

Forbes

538
https://abcnews.go.com/538/kamala-harri ... =111656941