The Coronavirus Thread

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NineBerry
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by NineBerry » Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:54 am

The definition of a case is a person who is infected. Being a case doesn't require having symptoms. Even people without symptoms can spread the infection.

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:07 am

NineBerry wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:54 am
The definition of a case is a person who is infected. Being a case doesn't require having symptoms. Even people without symptoms can spread the infection.
A "case" here is American English and means a patient. In law a case means an actual incident has taken place.
We are getting into the paranoid stakes here. There will always be Covid as there is always be flu. We should not be counting positive tests but looking at hospital admissions. People who are vaccinated could test positive.
"Wat is het een gezellig boel hier".

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by NineBerry » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:34 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:07 am
NineBerry wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:54 am
The definition of a case is a person who is infected. Being a case doesn't require having symptoms. Even people without symptoms can spread the infection.
A "case" here is American English and means a patient. In law a case means an actual incident has taken place.
And in epidemiology which is the relevant context here it means:
Confirmed cases –have a positive laboratory result (isolation of the causative agent or positive serological test). This case definition has high specificity.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal ... ground.pdf

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:07 am
We are getting into the paranoid stakes here. There will always be Covid as there is always be flu. We should not be counting positive tests but looking at hospital admissions. People who are vaccinated could test positive.
That will be true in maybe 1 or 2 years, but in the meantime there aren't enough people who are immune yet so that a rapid spread of the virus will see lots of people getting seriously ill and will thereby create a strain on the healthcare system.

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:44 am

Yes. Mr Trump made a very similar case against tests.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Hermit » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:43 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:07 am
People who are vaccinated could test positive.
Which constitute cases of infection.

In the 16 days since the Dutch government has rescinded almost all regulations aimed at slowing the spread of of Coronavirus cases the 7-day average of daily new infections in the Netherlands has increased 8.7-fold.

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:47 pm

Hermit wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:43 am
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:07 am
People who are vaccinated could test positive.
Which constitute cases of infection.

In the 16 days since the Dutch government has rescinded almost all regulations aimed at slowing the spread of of Coronavirus cases the 7-day average of daily new infections in the Netherlands has increased 8.7-fold.

Image
Fairy data. Does not prove anything. We will never be Covid free. These are not infections but refer to positive tests. That is due to the holidays as many youth who have not fully vaccinated are opting for a test to go out of the country. Older people dont bother with testing. The dictators saw their chance to bend Rutte's ear.

We are almost at the tipping point in vaccinations. Hospital cases are not increasing. Just because Ozland failed don't think that we have. The number of cases in a vaccinated country will always rise as people get back to near normal. We dont need lockdown or bloody masks. Just been to the medical centre and not a mask in sight.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by NineBerry » Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:51 pm

There are no positive PCR tests without an infection. Ozland hasn't failed. It had a huge success with both very little death, very little illness and very little strain on the economy and individual liberties compared to European countries.

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:40 pm

NineBerry wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:51 pm
There are no positive PCR tests without an infection. Ozland hasn't failed. It had a huge success with both very little death, very little illness and very little strain on the economy and individual liberties compared to European countries.
It has failed at vaccinating its people. It is a massive country with pockets of urbanisation. Easy to control.
"Wat is het een gezellig boel hier".

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Strontium Dog » Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:51 pm

NineBerry wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:54 am
The definition of a case is a person who is infected. Being a case doesn't require having symptoms. Even people without symptoms can spread the infection.
All the evidence I've seen suggests that the asymptomatic are much, much less likely to spread the virus. Which stands to reason - if you don't have symptoms, you won't be coughing over everyone.

So far as I can gather, it is a small number of super-spreaders who are responsible for most cases.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by NineBerry » Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:55 pm

Strontium Dog wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:51 pm
NineBerry wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:54 am
The definition of a case is a person who is infected. Being a case doesn't require having symptoms. Even people without symptoms can spread the infection.
All the evidence non-scientific rubbish I've seen suggests that the asymptomatic are much, much less likely to spread the virus. Which stands to reason - if you don't have symptoms, you won't be coughing over everyone.

So far as I can gather, it is a small number of super-spreaders who are responsible for most cases.
Fixed

There's numerous studies which show that people with no symptoms, mild symptoms or before symptom onset have comparable amount of virus in their throat. There's no need for coughing or sneezing. Infected people shed enough virus by simply speaking or exhaling.

On the day of my 11th birthday, a friend of mine was down with chickenpox so he couldn't join my birthday party. I went over to bring some cake from the party. There was no touching. We just stood opposite each other outside his house for about 2 minutes. Chickenpox doesn't cause coughing or sneezing. Just two minutes face to face talk was enough to spread the infection.
Last edited by NineBerry on Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Strontium Dog » Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:59 pm

NineBerry wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:55 pm
Strontium Dog wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:51 pm
NineBerry wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:54 am
The definition of a case is a person who is infected. Being a case doesn't require having symptoms. Even people without symptoms can spread the infection.
All the evidence non-scientific rubbish I've seen suggests that the asymptomatic are much, much less likely to spread the virus. Which stands to reason - if you don't have symptoms, you won't be coughing over everyone.

So far as I can gather, it is a small number of super-spreaders who are responsible for most cases.
Fixed
You know, if I was the author of one of the many scientific papers which demonstrate that the symptomatic are much more likely to spread covid, I would take that personally.

EDIT: oh, you supported it with an anecdote. How quaint. But chicken pox is of course much more contagious than covid.
Last edited by Strontium Dog on Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by NineBerry » Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:03 pm

Strontium Dog wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:59 pm
You know, if I was the author of one of the many scientific papers which demonstrate that the symptomatic are much more likely to spread covid, I would take that personally.
Can't be very scientific papers claiming to show something which isn't true.

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by NineBerry » Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:04 pm

Question What proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is associated with transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from persons with no symptoms?

Findings In this decision analytical model assessing multiple scenarios for the infectious period and the proportion of transmission from individuals who never have COVID-19 symptoms, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmission.

Meaning The findings of this study suggest that the identification and isolation of persons with symptomatic COVID-19 alone will not control the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamane ... le/2774707

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by NineBerry » Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:08 pm

Wilmes et al. recently reported in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe that asymptomatic index cases (AIC) play an important role in the transmission and spread of SARS-CoV2 infections [[1]
]. Secondary attack rates of 283 AIC were significant (0.02) but lower than those of the 567 symptomatic index cases (SIC; 0.04). AIC infected on average 0.6 contacts, only slightly less than SIC (0.7 contacts). Higher values but similar differences were found within households.
These results are in line with 13 other studies including 111 AIC, reviewed in a recent meta-analysis [[2]
]. Transmission rates of AIC ranged from 0–2.2% compared to 0.8–15.4% for SIC [[2]
]. Another meta-analysis found that household transmission from AIC was 0–4.9% compared to 18.0%; for SIC [[3]
]. In another household study, AIC were four times less likely to pass the virus to a household contact, but ultimately caused one fifth of household infections [[4]
]. All of these studies agree that AIC transmit SARS-COV2 to contacts, although to a somewhat lesser extent than SIC.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lane ... 4/fulltext

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Strontium Dog » Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:09 pm

NineBerry wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:03 pm
Strontium Dog wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:59 pm
You know, if I was the author of one of the many scientific papers which demonstrate that the symptomatic are much more likely to spread covid, I would take that personally.
Can't be very scientific papers claiming to show something which isn't true.
I mean, there are so many out there to choose from which all demonstrate the same thing.

This government paper mentions some of them.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... nments.pdf

Incidentally, that document also supports the idea that a minority of super-spreaders are responsible for a majority of infections.
100% verifiable facts or your money back. Anti-fascist. Enemy of woo - theistic or otherwise. Cloth is not an antiviral. Imagination and fantasy is no substitute for tangible reality. Wishing doesn't make it real.

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