OK. So we started with...Hermit wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:44 pm...
I can't work out what you are saying here, or if you are even addressing the problem I tried to illustrate by means of the black swan analogy. Maybe if I try to rephrase it, you might do likewise by replying directly to how I put it now: Lack of evidence for the existence of black swans is not proof of the non-existence of black swans. If it were, we'd have to come to the absurd conclusion that black swans did not exist until we found evidence of their existence.
The issue rests on 'proof' and what it means to prove something - in this case a claim for a supernatural agent.
My question is: why are we entertaining the possibility of a black swan here? Why not pink or green swans, or hitherto unknown billionaire uncles who have named you as the sole beneficiary in their willw, or any other untypical thing we are capable of imagining?
To prove is to confirm with such surety and security that all doubt is banished. To dispute or deny a proof is to dispute or deny a reality. While we might imagine pink swans or wealth uncles existing what we require to validate claims for same is to secure their material existence as 'things' with some straightforward evidences. A picture might be enough, but a more direct observation might be better. Multiple observations would be better still.
What would we consider adequate proof varies with the claim. As Sagan said that time, extra-ordinary claims require extra-ordinary evidences.
Where would we observe a supernatural agent? Only down here, in the world, in the material realm of energy, atoms and forces. After all, that is where things exists. However, according to myth and legend, supernatural agents are above such mundane concerns, the kinds of ordinary things which black swans require. We know, if the black swan exists, we will encounter it in our present world of things: in nature. The supernatural agent is claimed to exist in a realm beyond or above nature, a realm we have no direct access to, a realm where, so it is said, the ordered laws governing energy, atoms, forces, time, causality etc which rule our lives hold no sway, a realm that we can only conjure in our imagination - like the characters and places of a fantastical novel.Brian Peacock wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:21 pm... The absence of material evidence in support of claims for supernatural entities justifiably supports the conclusion that supernatural entities do not exist.
Nonetheless, the claim is: a certain type of thing exists - a supernatural agent. Despite the best efforts of the faithful of a number of traditions, and over a considerable period of time, that which might confirm without doubt the existence of this supernatural agent - material evidences - has not, so far, been forthcoming.
Sure, we can entertain the possibility that the things that we can imagine may indeed have some form of existence somewhere in the world. Indeed, we might argue that simply to imagine a thing is to give it a kind of material existence within the meat of our brains and nervous systems, but that is not what we would generally consider material evidence proving the existence of some 'thing' is it? We don't say that we can prove our imaginable supernatural entity exists simply by reporting that we can imagine them existing somehow/where, even if we can imagine them in great detail along with all their uniquely supernatural characteristics, properties and attributes. To allow the merely imaginable exists would be to elevate a say-so to be on a par with facts; to place an unsupported opinion on the same level as verified, verifying evidence.
Likewise, we can entertain the possibility that the black swan exists in some form in some place, but how do we address the claim that a black swan is not only imaginable, not only possible, but a real, extant thing? Again, for that we require more than just an earnest report - we need material evidence. Anecdotes about black swans, wealthy uncles, or supernatural entities don't count for very much if we cannot encounter them in the world.
There's a reason why challenging someone to prove a negative is fallacious. Here you have challenged me with a claim for which there is no supporting evidence. The burden of proof should rightly be placed on the claimant, but the challenge does not entail proof (securing, confirmatory evidences) of the material existence of a particular kind of thing with particular attributes and qualities. Instead the challenges is to secure with confirmatory evidences the non-existence of that thing.When I see evidence of black swans or supernatural entities, or anything else a human can imagine and then described, then I'll re-evaluate my conclusion. The standard here is not found in proving the non-existence of that for which no evidence is forthcoming.
The only rational thing to do here is to point out that that for which no evidence exists cannot be confirmed to exist. The longer the claim goes without confirmatory support the more untrustworthy, unsupportable, errant it appears. The only possible evidence that the thing does not exist is the absence of evidences which would otherwise support (beyond doubt) a claim that it does. The standard here is not the quality of our proof for the non-existence of the claimed-for thing but the paucity of support for the existence of the thing itself. Saying that the claimed-for thing could, possibly, imaginably exist has no material impact on the world and is indistinguishable from a fiction, and fantasy, or a falsehood.
In light of this one can justifiably conclude that black swans, secretly benevolent unknown uncles, and supernatural entities do not exist, because claims for them have not been supported. If evidence for their existence comes along then I'm more than happy to re-evaluate my conclusion at that time - which is just to say that I won't be worrying about being factually incorrect about the existence of supernatural agents until there's evidence that there's actually something to worry about.
