The Coronavirus Thread

[Scot Dutchy]

Replying to Scot's post here:

viewtopic.php?p=1888916#p1888916

My posts on the matter agree that there is uncertainty in the data, particularly in third world countries. However, there are 2 important points:

1. In general, western countries with modern infrastructure generally have much less uncertainty in their data than the third world. Virtually all the posts by Hermit or others, regarding mask wearing or other anti-civid measures, made comparisons between places like the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, the US and the UK, using well-publicised data from respected academic institutions. When there are very large and consistent patterns in such data, they can reasonably be accepted as valid.

2. The thrust of the article you quoted about data difficulties was that under-reporting is the dominant pattern - figures from excess mortality comparisons support this unequivocally. Much of your early posting about the virus was to play down its severity and impact (just like the strident calls from various right-wing world leaders...)

Jim you just cant compare. What basis are you going to do that? You just cant. Do you realise how different the Netherlands is to Australia? We have absolutely nothing in common except that we are human beings. That is where it ends. On every other level we are totally different.

[Scot Dutchy]

Replying to Scot's post here:

viewtopic.php?p=1888916#p1888916

My posts on the matter agree that there is uncertainty in the data, particularly in third world countries. However, there are 2 important points:

1. In general, western countries with modern infrastructure generally have much less uncertainty in their data than the third world. Virtually all the posts by Hermit or others, regarding mask wearing or other anti-civid measures, made comparisons between places like the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, the US and the UK, using well-publicised data from respected academic institutions. When there are very large and consistent patterns in such data, they can reasonably be accepted as valid.

2. The thrust of the article you quoted about data difficulties was that under-reporting is the dominant pattern - figures from excess mortality comparisons support this unequivocally. Much of your early posting about the virus was to play down its severity and impact (just like the strident calls from various right-wing world leaders...)

I'm going to reiterate a fact that Scot ignored, but I think poses a significant hurdle for his nihilistic assertions about the data.

As for Hermit's numbers, the order of magnitude difference between Australia, New Zealand, and Japan's numbers and those of other countries is very hard to attribute solely to national differences. Without strong evidence to the contrary, he's right that their policies have the situation under control when compared to other developed countries.

Let's take the example of the US versus Australia, Per Hermit's data, cases and deaths per million in the US are 53 and 29 times more respectively than in Australia. To me, this can't be accounted for by the unquantified problems Scot lists. Until he can either put believable numbers to these inaccuracies or show by other measures, say hospital overutilization, that Australia, New Zealand, and Japan don't have COVID under control, the claim isn't really believable.

I'm certainly not going to take Scot's word for it. I'm willing to do so for some folks based on a rough personal credibility score I base on their posts, but unfortunately for him, I subtract 42 points for being told I'm sucking on a tit or taking the Kool-Aide.

Keep pissing up the wall Joe along with Hermit. There are so many reports about the unreliability of Covid data. I quoted one of hundreds but yet you try to make comparisons. Just on what basis Joe? How many pretty smiles there are?
You dont have to take my word Joe just read the reports but of course you wont. It is all a MESS.

[JimC]

Jim you just cant compare.

Oh yes I can!

And I will!

So there!

[Scot Dutchy]

Jim you just cant compare.

Oh yes I can!

And I will!

So there!

Then IIYHO which really does not count for much TBH.

[Joe]

Replying to Scot's post here:

viewtopic.php?p=1888916#p1888916

My posts on the matter agree that there is uncertainty in the data, particularly in third world countries. However, there are 2 important points:

1. In general, western countries with modern infrastructure generally have much less uncertainty in their data than the third world. Virtually all the posts by Hermit or others, regarding mask wearing or other anti-civid measures, made comparisons between places like the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, the US and the UK, using well-publicised data from respected academic institutions. When there are very large and consistent patterns in such data, they can reasonably be accepted as valid.

2. The thrust of the article you quoted about data difficulties was that under-reporting is the dominant pattern - figures from excess mortality comparisons support this unequivocally. Much of your early posting about the virus was to play down its severity and impact (just like the strident calls from various right-wing world leaders...)

I'm going to reiterate a fact that Scot ignored, but I think poses a significant hurdle for his nihilistic assertions about the data.

As for Hermit's numbers, the order of magnitude difference between Australia, New Zealand, and Japan's numbers and those of other countries is very hard to attribute solely to national differences. Without strong evidence to the contrary, he's right that their policies have the situation under control when compared to other developed countries.

Let's take the example of the US versus Australia, Per Hermit's data, cases and deaths per million in the US are 53 and 29 times more respectively than in Australia. To me, this can't be accounted for by the unquantified problems Scot lists. Until he can either put believable numbers to these inaccuracies or show by other measures, say hospital overutilization, that Australia, New Zealand, and Japan don't have COVID under control, the claim isn't really believable.

I'm certainly not going to take Scot's word for it. I'm willing to do so for some folks based on a rough personal credibility score I base on their posts, but unfortunately for him, I subtract 42 points for being told I'm sucking on a tit or taking the Kool-Aide.

Keep pissing up the wall Joe along with Hermit. There are so many reports about the unreliability of Covid data. I quoted one of hundreds but yet you try to make comparisons. Just on what basis Joe? How many pretty smiles there are?
You dont have to take my word Joe just read the reports but of course you wont. It is all a MESS.

You're the one making dubious claims that Japan, New Zealand, and Australia don't have COVID under control so the burden of proof falls on you. If there's more you need to show to make your case, it's not my job to find it.

Frankly, were I making this claim, I would have already cited these reports you claim back you up. You have read them, haven't you? I doubt it, but it doesn't matter. Let's say you're right that Hermit's numbers are so hugely off as to be useless for any purpose, that doesn't prove your claim. It just invalidates his.

The only thing that backs your claim that these countries don't have COVID under control is your word. Show me why I should believe you, and do it without personal attacks or I'll take another 42 points off.

[Scot Dutchy]

Making dubious claims? These reports doubt the reliability of the data. It is one of plenty. Just how many do you require to realise the data is crap and very politicised. He cant prove anything because he accepts the so called official figures without question when so many doubt the validity of the data. I cant help you any further. Where are the personal attacks by me? Just keep pissing up the wall Joe and keep taking the kool-aid instead of thinking.
Just how do you compare countries? That like so many of my questions will never be answered.

[pErvinalia]

Don't forget to keep sucking on the tit, Joe.

[Scot Dutchy]

Boris Johnson would lose majority and seat in election tomorrow – poll

Results suggest public are deeply unhappy with the government’s handling of Covid and Brexit

The public are deeply unhappy with the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the Brexit negotiations, a damning new poll suggests.

The poll predicts that if a general election were held tomorrow neither the Conservatives nor Labour would win an outright majority. Disturbingly for Boris Johnson, the survey says the Conservatives would lose 81 seats, wiping out the 80-seat majority they won in December 2019.

It gives the first detailed insight into the public’s perception of Johnson’s handling of the Brexit talks and the pandemic, amid fears that Britain is heading into a third national lockdown.

The prime minister is on course to lose his own seat of Uxbridge and Ruislip South, if the insight is accurate.

According to the survey of more than 22,000 people, conducted by the research data company Focaldata, using the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) method that is said to be more than accurate than conventional polling, the results would leave the Tories with 284 seats and Labour with 282 – an increase of 82.

Results in Scotland would see the Scottish National party achieve a near complete sweep, winning 57 of the 59 Scottish seats. The poll also predicts the Liberal Democrats would be reduced to just two seats – in Bath and in Kingston and Surbiton – down from the current 11. One in four voters who supported the Lib Dems in 2019 said they will switch allegiance to Labour.

Who thinks Johnson is bothered about it? He could not care FA.

[Joe]

Don't forget to keep sucking on the tit, Joe.

Watch it eRv, or I'll dock Scot another 42 points.

[Brian Peacock]

That's exactly what a sheeple would say!

[Joe]

Only someone taking the Kool-Aide would think so.

[pErvinalia]

Yeah, you can't trust that data, Scot.

It's amazing how Scot is ok with data that suits his bias, and not ok with data that disagrees with him.

[Joe]

What I really want to know is what kind of tit gives Kool-Aide, and what sort of creature has that kind of tits.

[Joe]

Making dubious claims? These reports doubt the reliability of the data. It is one of plenty. Just how many do you require to realise the data is crap and very politicised. He cant prove anything because he accepts the so called official figures without question when so many doubt the validity of the data. I cant help you any further. Where are the personal attacks by me? Just keep pissing up the wall Joe and keep taking the kool-aid instead of thinking.
Just how do you compare countries? That like so many of my questions will never be answered.

It's your fault, you know. Have you heard of this thing called Google? I hear even The Netherlands has it and man do you need to use it. Search the text I underlined and maybe you'll find something like COVID-19: How to make between-country comparisons to help you answer your questions. There's probably more to be found if you vary your search, but as I said, that's your problem not mine.

As for where the personal attacks are, you see the part I highlighted in red just after you asked? That's 42 more points deducted my friend.

See, that wasn't that hard. So how come it is for you?

[JimC]

With all the Kool-Aide Joe and Hermit are supposedly drinking, it's no wonder that the need to piss is paramount...