The Coronavirus Thread

[NineBerry]

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0022968

[pErvinalia]

#FAKESCIENCE

[rainbow]

#FAKESCIENCE

het dorpsgek zegt

[pErvinalia]

You should see about that cough.

[Tero]

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0022968

The advantage of the valve fitted mask shown is that it has the bands going around the head. Even for 20 minutes it is more comfortable than a mask with straps around the ears. If ear the mask is tight, it actually bends the ears. The mask with the valve can easily be changed by sticking duct tape over the valve on the inside.

[rainbow]

You should see about that cough.

It is a minor irritation.

[Scot Dutchy]

Never mind but we all knew it anyway:

When politicians cite Covid-19 statistics, they may be wrong – it doesn't mean the numbers are

Statisticians would welcome an inquiry into their role in this crisis – they have done a good job

ooner or later we are going to have to have an inquiry into the role of statisticians in the Covid-19 crisis,” declared the journalist Ross Clark in the Daily Telegraph recently. “They will have to be put in the hot seat and grilled as to whether they contributed to the sense of panic which has gripped so many people and disrupted normal life for so long.” As one of those beastly statisticians, I would relish the opportunity.

In my book The Art of Statistics, published last year, I quote the statistician and writer Nate Silver, who said: “Numbers have no way of speaking for themselves… we imbue them with meaning.” During this crisis, a lot of meaning has been imbued by people who want the numbers to support their argument. This may include making comparisons with Sweden to say a strict lockdown is unnecessary, or pointing to rising infection rates to demand a zero-Covid strategy. In contrast, statisticians tend to be pedantically cautious in their interpretation of data, as they understand its frailties and uncertainties, and are very reluctant to use it to argue that something should or should not be done.

Are we surprised?

[JimC]

I think you've missed the point here, Scot. The implication was that the basic data is correct (with the usual degree of uncertainty in either direction), which you have tended to argue against. The valid point being made here is that when the numbers are used by politicians to generate policies their decisions can be arguable.

[Sean Hayden]

[Scot Dutchy]

I think you've missed the point here, Scot. The implication was that the basic data is correct (with the usual degree of uncertainty in either direction), which you have tended to argue against. The valid point being made here is that when the numbers are used by politicians to generate policies their decisions can be arguable.

Sorry Jim that is not my interpretation. I read it as data can be anything you want to prove your case.

During this crisis, a lot of meaning has been imbued by people who want the numbers to support their argument.

This what is happening and he states:

In contrast, statisticians tend to be pedantically cautious in their interpretation of data, as they understand its frailties and uncertainties, and are very reluctant to use it to argue that something should or should not be done.

[rainbow]

Are we surprised?

Absolutely not!

Dutch politicians are way ahead in manipulating data. The best. The Belgians are, of course the worst at it.

[Brian Peacock]

... I read it as data can be anything you want to prove your case. ...

Is it the sources or the methodologies you object to - or maybe just the conclusions of the analysis?

[Scot Dutchy]

Political leaders are raising ‘false hopes’ about coronavirus vaccines

Drugs now under development are unlikely to end the pandemic, the Wellcome Trust’s Jeremy Farrar warns

Vaccines will not be a silver bullet to end the Covid-19 pandemic and leaders must avoid creating false hope, a key government adviser has warned.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, writes in today’s Observer that the first vaccines are likely to be only partially effective. Raising expectations and rushing new drugs into production risks damaging public trust in any vaccination programmes that eventually arrive, he said.

Farrar, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), also takes aim at “vaccine nationalism”, saying supplies need to be allocated fairly rather than hoarded by richer nations.

Vaccines in the UK should go first to those who need them most, he says, and he calls for action to prevent the virus spreading to vulnerable people from young adults, who are testing positive for Covid-19 at an increasing rate.

Big Pharma want to make a double killing. If things return to reasonable levels they would have lost the opportunity of a lifetime. That is why he says a load of crap to keep the paranoia going.

“We are facing a chaotic stop-start winter for schools and businesses,” Farrar writes. “We have to do everything possible to avoid this. The first vaccine may not be a silver bullet that sends us back to normal in a matter of months, but by using doses wisely on people who most need them along with truthful, considered public health messaging that does not place false expectations, we will be in a strong position to avoid a repeat of early 2020.”

Maybe in the UK but that is not the world (although many living there thinks it is).

[JimC]

Melbourne's hard lockdown has now been extended (with minor changes) till the end of September, with a series of further steps after that, in 2 week blocks. Current case numbers are decreasing, but not fast enough, apparently. A drag, but necessary, IMO...

[Hermit]

Melbourne's hard lockdown has now been extended (with minor changes) till the end of September, with a series of further steps after that, in 2 week blocks. Current case numbers are decreasing, but not fast enough, apparently. A drag, but necessary, IMO...

Victoria is definitely on the mend, but new cases are still appearing near the rate at the top of the first wave. I made a scrappy graph to illustrate the state of your state visually. It is up to date even though the labels of the x axis don't make that clear. The charting capabilities of my 20-something year old spreadsheet software is somewhat primitive.

Daily new Coronavirus cases in Victoria 20200906.png (10.1 KiB) Viewed 936 times