The Coronavirus Thread

[Brian Peacock]

False hope is better than no hope.

[laklak]

We've got the very best false hope. Except for the Dutch. Theirs is even better.

[Scot Dutchy]

How can coronavirus models get it so wrong?

Analysis depends on data – so predictions for Italy and Spain, where peak has passed, are more reliable than for UK

By August the UK is projected to have recorded more Covid-19 deaths than Italy, Spain, France and Germany combined

Still the numbers are tiny but ja the press needs a story.

[Scot Dutchy]

After only 76 days Wuhan restarts.

'Liberation' as Wuhan's coronavirus lockdown ends after 76 days

Flights resume, families reunite, and traffic jams return to the streets where 11m people had been shut in

After 76 days sealed off from the world, the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus pandemic began, has opened its doors again.

At midnight on Wednesday, authorities allowed residents to leave the city for the first time since 23 January when 11 million people were put under lockdown to contain the quickly spreading coronavirus.

“It’s like being liberated,” said Zhang Kaizhong, 51, who was in his car among rows of vehicles waiting on a motorway leading east out of Wuhan, towards the neighbouring province of Jiangsu. Zhang had come to Wuhan to visit his son the day before the lockdown was announced with only a few hours’ notice. He had not seen his wife for more than 70 days. “I miss her very much,” he said. “Of course I am very excited.”

[Scot Dutchy]

Just a footnote:

The whole of China has 2 deaths per million inhabitants.
America has 39 per million.

[pErvinalia]

How can coronavirus models get it so wrong?

Analysis depends on data – so predictions for Italy and Spain, where peak has passed, are more reliable than for UK

By August the UK is projected to have recorded more Covid-19 deaths than Italy, Spain, France and Germany combined

Still the numbers are tiny but ja the press needs a story.

You must be torn. On one hand you think it's all a beat-up, but on the other hand you must be gleefully hoping the UK's numbers do reach those levels, given how much you hate the place.

[Scot Dutchy]

UK must learn from German response to Covid-19, says Whitty

Government’s chief medical officer says Germany got ahead in terms of coronavirus testing

The UK government’s chief medical officer has conceded that Germany “got ahead” in testing people for Covid-19 and said the UK needed to learn from that.

Ministers have been challenged repeatedly during the pandemic over their failure to increase testing quickly enough, prompting the health secretary, Matt Hancock, to promise to deliver 100,000 tests a day by the end of April.

Asked about the differences with Germany, where the number of deaths appears to be increasing less rapidly than in the UK, Prof Chris Whitty told the daily government press briefing on Tuesday: “We all know that Germany got ahead in terms of its ability to do testing for the virus, and there’s a lot to learn from that.” Germany is already able to test 500,000 patients a week and is under pressure to increase this further.

[NineBerry]

The Netherlands must learn from German response to Covid-19

With 123 death per 1 Million inhabitants, it's among the top ten countries.

[Scot Dutchy]

The Netherlands must learn from German response to Covid-19

With 123 death per 1 Million inhabitants, it's among the top ten countries.

I am not saying we dont am I but the outbreak is not over in Europe and our numbers are declining and not increasing like the UK.

BTW we are 12th and not even in the top ten.

[Animavore]

Where do you get info on how countries compare? I want to check out Ireland.

[NineBerry]

Where do you get info on how countries compare? I want to check out Ireland.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Switch to "Yesterday" to see some meaningful statistics

[Scot Dutchy]

[Animavore]

Could be better. Germany is still above average for deaths per million though there seems to be an awful lot of places this thing has barely begun in yet. Very worrying.

[Hermit]

BTW we are 12th and not even in the top ten.

8th

[rainbow]

How can coronavirus models get it so wrong?

Analysis depends on data – so predictions for Italy and Spain, where peak has passed, are more reliable than for UK

By August the UK is projected to have recorded more Covid-19 deaths than Italy, Spain, France and Germany combined

Still the numbers are tiny but ja the press needs a story.

Classic case of garbage, in garbage out.

All the data is flawed, and could be an underestimate. It may take months before the actual numbers can be compared to the "normal" deathrate due to other respiratory diseases. Even in China, a large proportion of deaths were amongst smokers (Can't find the source, but makes sense).
There will always be some guesswork as to what was the major, not the immediate, cause of death.

With exponential growth a small change in initial conditions will have a major effect of the final numbers.

My guess is that the US will end up the loser, due to the late response.