The Coronavirus Thread

[Cunt]

Does Cnut look like that yet? Keep blastin' those pecs, Cunt!

I've been happy lately, that I chose to have a home gym (really just a pullup bar and some dumbbells) and eschew tying my fitness activities to payments, like gym or trainers.

It sort of insulates against my plans being upset by others and their complicated 'infrastructure'.

I love living in a city, but I'm glad my trail is wide open, compared to our best indoor facilities.

And no, I don't look anything like that. Picture a slightly stooped, slightly deflated-baloon-shaped hairy old man.

I don't think I could get to that size, but then I don't know really what I can get. I guess I'll see some of it, but it takes years.

[Scot Dutchy]

Needs a good scrub get some of that blue muck off

[Brian Peacock]

Woad betide him in his later year.

[Scot Dutchy]

A shrivelled up old prune. Old people with tats dont look nice and there are going to be some very ugly ones.

[Tero]

The cases in China started early Feb and have now leveled off. It does not quite explain the virulence, infectivity, as we have put in quarantines. Other countries have graphs of the same shape. It looks to be leveling off in 2 months in most areas. Or is at least starting to curve off. The coronavirus family does not have the mutation rate that flu viruses have.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... onder.html

[Tero]

This could take some time if 20% are carrying the virus


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opinions ... index.html

[Cunt]

How can anyone trust CNN after knowing their record?

Isn't 'empiricism' still kind of popular?

[Brian Peacock]

Yeah, it's difficult to distinguish fact from opinion at the moment, but I think most governments have a vested political and public health interest in issuing advice based on the relevant numbers both in terms of avoiding unnecessary panic and in quantifying the actual risk to the population at large (assuming their monitoring systems are robust enough of course).

I'm surprised Galaxian hasn't swooped in to tell us that it's all a deep-state false-flag operation to depress the global economy in readiness for the arrival of the Ggarf hulk fleet from Alpha Centauri hiding in Saturn's shadow, or something.

[Cunt]

I've been watching the best 1st world countries, for their information. Someone recently drew my attention to Africa, where I would expect a lot more infection and a lot more deaths.

Still think there is no reason to change my 'disaster planning', beyond reducing group activities.

[Scot Dutchy]

Strangely China was having economic problems before the virus appeared.

[laklak]

eSwatini is ready now, they've got the test kits. Costs E1400 for the test ($100) but it only costs if you're not infected. We've also got a few ICU beds in the Mbabane Clinic, and there's always Traditional Medicine. This dude will take care of you.

[Tero]

Smokers died in China. True rate is less than 1%

This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low). Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were detected in China. This alone suggests a halving of the virus’s true fatality rate.

On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. If the numbers from reports out of China had held, the expected number of deaths in those under 70 should have been around four.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/co ... think.html

[Seabass]

White House continues to protect Trump's ego instead of Americans.

Official: White House didn’t want to tell seniors not to fly
https://apnews.com/921ad7f1f08d7634bf681ba785faf269

NEW YORK (AP) — The White House overruled health officials who wanted to recommend that elderly and physically fragile Americans be advised not to fly on commercial airlines because of the new coronavirus, a federal official told The Associated Press.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention submitted the plan as a way of trying to control the virus, but White House officials ordered the air travel recommendation be removed, said the official who had direct knowledge of the plan. Trump administration officials have since suggested certain people should consider not traveling, but have stopped short of the stronger guidance sought by the CDC.

[Brian Peacock]

The issue isn't so much about the mortality rate, but the infection rate. If the mortality rate is only 0.01% but the infection rate is 80% then that's still a fuck of a lot of dead people.

[Tero]

Though the virus changes more during an epidemic compared to a coronavirus, the swine flu of 2009 may be a better model for numbers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_ ... ted_States

it wound up by end of may, though certainly more than 1000, more like 10 000