US Election 2020

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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Hermit » Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:05 pm

JimC wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:12 pm
Seabass makes a good point that casting aspersions of large groups, based on race, geography, age etc. is fairly pointless. Actions, such as voting for a particular party, belonging to a political group or clearly stating certain opinions are at least a better guide for making generalisations.
Lumping everybody who voted for Trump into one heap and labelling them "Republicans" does not provide a great deal of explanatory power, particularly when that group consists of 63 million voters or 46.1% of all votes cast. There is in fact "good and bad on both sides", although not equally distributed. For example, exit polls show that 54% of women voted for Clinton in 2015, and 41% for Trump. Also, 41% of men voted for Clinton and 52% for Trump. So, saying
Seabass wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:44 am
Men aren't the problem. Women aren't the problem.
is incorrect. If Republicans are the problem, 41% of women are part of that, as are 52% of men. It is only by digging ever deeper into detail of who is Republican that you can hope to figure out why they are and hence what you can do about it.

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Re: US Election 2020

Post by JimC » Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:11 pm

Within the 63 million who voted for Tump, I agree there would be a variety of motives, including, of course, the "I always vote Republican" brigade. I think that a fair number voted somewhat naively, without quite realising the nature of Trump. Perhaps that group may be fewer in '20...
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Hermit » Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:31 pm

JimC wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:11 pm
Within the 63 million who voted for Tump, I agree there would be a variety of motives, including, of course, the "I always vote Republican" brigade. I think that a fair number voted somewhat naively, without quite realising the nature of Trump. Perhaps that group may be fewer in '20...
I'm not sure if you understand what I'm trying to get across. Seabass quite categorically states that women are not the problem, men are not the problem, and so on. Well, 41% of women and 52% of men are the problem. Conversely, 54% of women and 41% of men are not. Ignoring that and simply stating Republicans are the problem, while true, doesn't get us anywhere. There's good and bad on all sides. If we want to find out what to do about the problem we need to find out what makes 41% of women and 52% of men want to support Trump. Republicanism is not a uniform virus that affects people randomly. We must not waste time and effort trying to develop a universal Republican virus vaccine.

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Re: US Election 2020

Post by pErvinalia » Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:57 pm

Hermit wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:05 pm
JimC wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:12 pm
Seabass makes a good point that casting aspersions of large groups, based on race, geography, age etc. is fairly pointless. Actions, such as voting for a particular party, belonging to a political group or clearly stating certain opinions are at least a better guide for making generalisations.
Lumping everybody who voted for Trump into one heap and labelling them "Republicans" does not provide a great deal of explanatory power, particularly when that group consists of 63 million voters or 46.1% of all votes cast. There is in fact "good and bad on both sides", although not equally distributed. For example, exit polls show that 54% of women voted for Clinton in 2015, and 41% for Trump. Also, 41% of men voted for Clinton and 52% for Trump. So, saying
Seabass wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:44 am
Men aren't the problem. Women aren't the problem.
is incorrect. If Republicans are the problem, 41% of women are part of that, as are 52% of men. It is only by digging ever deeper into detail of who is Republican that you can hope to figure out why they are and hence what you can do about it.
You are being too literal (bloody Germans). He's not saying that men or women aren't part of the group that voted for Trump. He's saying that being a man or woman has little to nothing to do with their voting for Trump. However, being a supporter of Republicans IS something that has plenty to do with their voting patterns.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:08 am

JimC wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:11 pm
Within the 63 million who voted for Tump, I agree there would be a variety of motives, including, of course, the "I always vote Republican" brigade. I think that a fair number voted somewhat naively, without quite realising the nature of Trump. Perhaps that group may be fewer in '20...
Is there not a hard core of 30% of "non-thinking voters" that support Trump.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by JimC » Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:28 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:08 am
JimC wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:11 pm
Within the 63 million who voted for Tump, I agree there would be a variety of motives, including, of course, the "I always vote Republican" brigade. I think that a fair number voted somewhat naively, without quite realising the nature of Trump. Perhaps that group may be fewer in '20...
Is there not a hard core of 30% of "non-thinking voters" that support Trump.
Within that group, there will be some blue-collar workers who have come to realise that Trump lied about the benefits he told them were coming, and others who now realise how un-Presidential he is. It need not be many, just a small number switching from Trump may be important...
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:11 am

It's hard to believe he will increase his vote. But then, it was hard to believe that he would be elected in the first place.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:19 am

Maybe I have seen too many documentaries about Trumpland. Dutch tv did a great in depth one not so long a ago. I just dont see them thinking about anything. The term "as thick as two short planks" or the Dutch version "een plank voor zijn hoofd" comes readily to mind.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Hermit » Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:21 am

JimC wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:28 am
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:08 am
JimC wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:11 pm
Within the 63 million who voted for Tump, I agree there would be a variety of motives, including, of course, the "I always vote Republican" brigade. I think that a fair number voted somewhat naively, without quite realising the nature of Trump. Perhaps that group may be fewer in '20...
Is there not a hard core of 30% of "non-thinking voters" that support Trump.
Within that group, there will be some blue-collar workers who have come to realise that Trump lied about the benefits he told them were coming, and others who now realise how un-Presidential he is. It need not be many, just a small number switching from Trump may be important...
The core doesn't give a fuck about how un-Presidential Trump is, and I don't think material benefits are all that important to it either. As he said, his supporters would stand by him even after he shot someone in the middle of Fifth Street. His appeal consists of his dogwhistling in favour of all their prejudices: Racism, insularity, national chauvinism, anti education, anti science, anti liberalism and so forth. As long as he has their back in their efforts to continue living in their Dukes of Hazzard and Jim Crow fantasy land, they'll keep voting for that abortion.

Some of his supporters will change their minds, but if a sufficient number of them do so to effect a change of Presidents in 2020 remains to be seen. One thing is certain to me: Unless the Democratic Party gets its act together and - just as importantly - avoids breaking up into feuding factions of DINOs, social democrats and those in between, there will be no election landslide. If the next president turns out to be a Democrat, he/she will squeak in by the thickness of a pubic hair. Oh yeah, and Trump will not concede defeat. That'll be another manifestation of the "interesting times" the USA has found itself in since the 8th of November 2015 or even earlier.

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Re: US Election 2020

Post by JimC » Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:55 am

I agree that it all depends on the Democrat candidate. If the voters feel they are as suspect as Hillary, the nightmare will continue...
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:16 am

They just need to feel the Bern.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Animavore » Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:22 pm

Image
"[Donald Trump] a symbol of renewed white identity and common purpose".
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:16 am

Gun babies and Jesus again. Plus Trump.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/ ... ls-1365192
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:11 pm

The laws would require essentially all abortions past so many weeks to be C-sections, so that you can see if the fetus survives. Fetus to suffer for hours or days and then die anyway. Current abortion methods kill the fetus at the start, then remove it.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/ ... ls-1365192
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Forty Two » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:11 am

JimC wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:11 pm
Within the 63 million who voted for Tump, I agree there would be a variety of motives, including, of course, the "I always vote Republican" brigade. I think that a fair number voted somewhat naively, without quite realising the nature of Trump. Perhaps that group may be fewer in '20...
...other motives include "I want what is best for the country, and I think that Trump was the best of the two main candidates..."

Nobody in the US had any illusions about the "nature of Trump." He has been a household name here since the early 1980s. Nobody ever accused him of being a nice guy. His rep was hard-nosed business mogul who succeeded in the corrupt world of New York City real estate, philanderer, publicity hound, pragmatist, amoral -- but gets shit done. Some people like shit to get done, and care less about him being morally commendable.

Look - I wasn't originally, but I became a Trump supporter. One thing that did not change is my opinion of him as a person. He's an asshole. He is probably near impossible to work for, ruling by decree and abuse - the kind of boss that enters the building in increases the tension by his presence. Rules by fear and intimidation if necessary. Carrots and sticks. Results only. No excuses. I want X. Give me X or you will feel pain. If I get X, you will be rewarded. Then it's over, and you suck again until you give me the next thing I want. He cheats on his wives and girlfriends. He's selfish, mean, unpleasant, aggressive, conceited, gluttonous, avaricious, braggart.
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