Election 2016 Thread

[Forty Two]

Trump may get a high popular vote. Angry people, good turnout. Analysis is faulty for electoral vote.

538.com takes into account electoral vote, and is the most detailed and accurate analysis site. They are renowned for their accurate predictions over the last decade. The only one they got significantly wrong was ....drum roll.... Trump in the GOP primaries....

[Tero]

Well, like global warming, this is not a phenomenon we've had before. Normal tools don't work.Florida, for example, is not preedictable
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5963.html

However, in this arm chair election, my prediction is as good as the professional's. I predict Hillary wins mostly via electoral vote, popular vote very close.

States held will not change due to:
It’s also not clear whether Trump will persuade any voters he doesn’t already have. Views of Trump — and of Clinton — are very firmly held at this point, according to Matthews, whose partner ran an anti-Trump super PAC earlier this year.

“I don’t think significant numbers of women will change their minds,” she said.

[Tero]

Also, CNN poll summary today of many polls.

cnn poll of polls
Hillary Clinton headshot photo
clinton 43%
Donald Trump headshot photo
trump 41

With these numbers Trump cannot win. He loses all the states marked for Hillary. Hillary has to pass out during a debate to lose any more votes.

This one lets you make your own map
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

I gave Hillary Florida. Once Trump loses Florida, game over

[Forty Two]

Indeed, the polls show Hillary with a small lead in the vote count, and more ways to win in the electoral college.

The interesting thing is that it's as close as it is, with the establishment politicians (including republicans), and most of the media too, in Hillary's camp, it's amazing that Trump can still have a chance.

After fivethirtyeight.com, I like to follow the Princeton Election Consortium -- http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/ - this shows advantage Hillary, but it's not a done deal.

I believe the debates could have a significant impact. There is a debate on 9/26. The anticipated ratings for that debate are through the roof, dwarfing anything that we have ever seen before. People are breaking out the popcorn and drinks for this one. And, the reason is that Trump is there. The ratings are not going to be through the roof because of Clinton.

Trump, in my view, needs to find a way to avoid a "Candy Crowley moment." http://dailycaller.com/2014/01/27/romne ... erference/ The debate moderators are mostly going to be against him, and they will interfere like Crowley did when it will help Hillary. Trump has to be very careful to minimize those opportunities.

Similarly, he can't give opportunities for zingers -- http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/2 ... olicy-Back - Mitt got pounded unmercifully in 2008 for saying that Russia was our greatest foreign policy threat. He has been shown to be at least arguably right on that point ,but the debate moderators and the media will be hungry to shame and humiliate Trump as uninformed. He has to understand that they are teeing these things up.

[Tero]

Trump is going to give most of you a tax cut. $500.


A rare truthful goal in the Trump platform.

[Forty Two]

Trump is going to give most of you a tax cut. $500.

I, for one, would welcome a kiss on the cheek like that. The ass fucking we taxpayers have had for the last 8 years was a bit harsh.

[DaveDodo007]

I don't give a shit about the (rigged) polls. If anyone thinks the outcome is anything other than a Trump landslide doesn't understand politics and/or the current mood of the American voters.

[Tero]

DailyBeast
According to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, released Wednesday, the Democratic nominee leads Trump by 7 percentage points, 48% to 41%, among likely voters in a two-way matchup. When the two most popular third-party candidates are added, Clinton’s lead falls to 6 points, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein raking in a combined 12% support.

[pErvinalia]

I don't give a shit about the (rigged) polls. If anyone thinks the outcome is anything other than a Trump landslide doesn't understand politics and/or the current mood of the American voters.

Says the Pommy...

[Tero]

[Forty Two]

realclearpolitics -- http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5952.html

More importantly - babes for Trump! https://twitter.com/babesfortrump

[Tero]

Ramussen Poll: Make America WHITE again

Most voters oppose Obama’s plan to bring more Middle Eastern and African refugees to this country next year and view that decision as an increased danger to U.S. national security. Clinton supports the president’s policy.

Voters, on the other hand, strongly support Trump’s plan for temporarily restricting immigration from countries with a history of terrorism and for testing to screen out newcomers who don’t share America’s values.

[Forty Two]

Ramussen Poll: Make America WHITE again

Most voters oppose Obama’s plan to bring more Middle Eastern and African refugees to this country next year and view that decision as an increased danger to U.S. national security. Clinton supports the president’s policy.

Opposing bringing in more middle eastern and African refugees is not the same thing as making the country white again. Also, the blurb you posted says "most voters" and not just most Trump voters. Of course most voters oppose a plan to bring in more "refugees." What's the point of bringing in more refugees? And, one of the key points that is important to most people is that they create a significant vetting process, so that we don't simply let in hundreds of thousands of people. Something is wrong with the process. They just gave 1800 people citizenship by mistake - they were supposed to be deported.

Voters, on the other hand, strongly support Trump’s plan for temporarily restricting immigration from countries with a history of terrorism and for testing to screen out newcomers who don’t share America’s values.

large n

That sounds eminently sensible. Temporarily restrict immigration from countries with a history of terrorism. Sounds like a good plan. And, as far as testing to screen out folks who don't share American values - if that's problematic, then what of the European countries who make immigrants take education classes to understand liberal western society's mores? Like Norway, etc. where they educate newcomers on the rights of women, and secular society, etc.

There are always restrictions on immigration. That's the whole point of immigration law - to control the flood of immigrants. Every country does it. If, say, large numbers of immigrants are to come from Somalia, shouldn't they be restricted until the immigrants can be properly vetted?

[Tero]

As far as the polls go, even the debates do not matter to most states. It looks like it is coming down to
Iowa, Florida and Nevada. Ohio can be given to Trump. And Iowa and NV probably, so mostly Florida is going to be decisive
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5963.html

Also, Colorado could be more interesting than some polls suggest
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5974.html

[Scot Dutchy]

Florida always seems to play an important role.