Alien life is virtually certain

[Blind groper]

Sufficient heavy elements have existed for only about 6 to 8 billion years. The early universe contained mostly hydrogen and helium.

Looking at Earth.
Life has existed for (maybe and arguably) about 3.5 billion years. Until 600 million years ago, it was almost all single celled life and mostly prokaryote.

So most of our world's biohistory involves only tiny and primitive life. Statistically, this suggests that any other world with life also probably has only tiny and primitive life.

The odds of intelligent life anywhere in our galaxy close to us are rather slim.

[laklak]

Even if the odds are 17,000,000,000 to 1 that means one other intelligent race of equal or higher technological expertise in our one galaxy. And that's only with current estimates of "earth like" planets, an estimate that is sure to change radically if history is any guide. Throw in a few non-earth like planets and the probabilities are far, far higher. Who says intelligent life requires an earth like planet? The odds against winning the Mega Millions are around 128,000,000 to one and that happens every couple of weeks. Now multiply that by a couple of billion galaxies. Still convinced only primitive life exists out there?

[klr]

Sufficient heavy elements have existed for only about 6 to 8 billion years. The early universe contained mostly hydrogen and helium.

Looking at Earth.
Life has existed for (maybe and arguably) about 3.5 billion years. Until 600 million years ago, it was almost all single celled life and mostly prokaryote.

So most of our world's biohistory involves only tiny and primitive life. Statistically, this suggests that any other world with life also probably has only tiny and primitive life.

The odds of intelligent life anywhere in our galaxy close to us are rather slim.

I don't think you can draw a general inference like that just from Earth alone. You may as well argue that because the average human lifespan has been (say) less than 35 years for the bulk of human history, then it should not be much greater now. Life always starts simple, and in many cases stays simple. But not always. We know that much from Earth. There's still an awful lot we don't know about Earth, the solar system, the rest of universe ... and the range of conditions under which complex. even intelligent life could evolve. If I were a betting man, I'd say it is rare, but not at all out of the question, and there are a shitload of other potentially habitable solar systems. Or systems that were, or are to be. We could be separated from alien civilizations by not only space but also deep time.

[Blind groper]

To klr

The main thing about any discussion like this is our ignorance. We just plain do not know. We have a sample of one to guide us.

However, life elsewhere will also have evolved, and the basic rules of evolution probably apply. Such life will not have followed the Earth pattern of evolution exactly, but the general flow should be similar. Like having a long, long time with primitive life only.

[That Alien Guy.]

The galaxy is teeming with life. Most of it intelligent enough to avoid you linguistically demented apes like the fronxing plague unless watching you butcher each other for a laugh.

[rainbow]

This is no time for Anatidaean mathematics, it's serious.
Anyway, there is no paradox. People just don't understand the distances involved.
And just because alien life is virtually certain, that doesn't mean that intelligent alien life, capable of sending signals across space, is equally certain.

There can be no certainty of alien life, until we have evidence of alien life.
If you believe that there can be no evidence, then there can't be any certainty.

[cronus]

To klr

The main thing about any discussion like this is our ignorance. We just plain do not know. We have a sample of one to guide us.

However, life elsewhere will also have evolved, and the basic rules of evolution probably apply. Such life will not have followed the Earth pattern of evolution exactly, but the general flow should be similar. Like having a long, long time with primitive life only.

Wake me when the run of idjut lifeforms ends?

[klr]

To klr

The main thing about any discussion like this is our ignorance. We just plain do not know. We have a sample of one to guide us.

However, life elsewhere will also have evolved, and the basic rules of evolution probably apply. Such life will not have followed the Earth pattern of evolution exactly, but the general flow should be similar. Like having a long, long time with primitive life only.

Yes, but that does not preclude complex or even intelligent life eventually developing in a certain proportion of cases, which was the point I was making. We just don't know what that proportion might be, except that even 1% might be regarded as a big number.

[mistermack]

Sufficient heavy elements have existed for only about 6 to 8 billion years. The early universe contained mostly hydrogen and helium.

Looking at Earth.
Life has existed for (maybe and arguably) about 3.5 billion years. Until 600 million years ago, it was almost all single celled life and mostly prokaryote.

So most of our world's biohistory involves only tiny and primitive life. Statistically, this suggests that any other world with life also probably has only tiny and primitive life.

The odds of intelligent life anywhere in our galaxy close to us are rather slim.

I doubt if it took that long for sufficient heavy elements to be formed. They get formed when very big stars explode in a supernova. The really big stars burn out far quicker than stars like the Sun, some only take a few million years, so they would get recycled very quickly in the early universe. Maybe someone has calculated how long it would take, I'm just guessing about two billion years.
I suppose they will find out eventually, as some of the very oldest stars are nearly as old as the universe itself, so if they can detect planets going round them, that would be a way to find out for sure.

I agree about the primitive life bit. It would only take one major extinction event of the big animals, once every hundred million years, to ensure that life never got beyond microbes anyway. We might have been lucky here on Earth, there might be a lot more collisions elsewhere.

As far as intelligence goes, it's possible that we are just about as intelligent as organic life can go naturally.
We've stopped getting more intelligent, because we've got to the point where we ensure that it's not just the fittest that survive and reproduce. Now, the slightly weaker and more stupid have the same chance.
We might be still evolving, but it's not the struggle for survival that gives a reproductive edge any more.
So once ANY species gets to the stage where they don't have to struggle to reproduce, they will stop evolving more intelligence. UNLESS they take active steps to breed themselves more intelligent.
We could do that now, so it's obviously possible that aliens could deliberately do it.

Maybe we should be selectively breeding geniuses now, so that we can compete when we meet super-intelligent aliens.

[That Alien Guy.]

Ah now you're gleaning the issue. Out here in the Moonrocks the chances of Extinction Level Events are very common, which in turn lead to more planet crossing asteroids which in turn leads to more ELE's.

The problem you apes have is that you see that you have created some explosives and some walls and even daubed some of those walls with paint and have convinced yourselves you are sophisticated intelligences, yet even in comparison to other species on Earth that doesn't even hold true. An opposable thumb and a complex system of shrieks and burbles is not a good measure of intelligence at all.

[Tyrannical]

Space exploration may be over rated

If you could invent some cheap limitless source of power such as fusion, we wouldn't need anything from outside our solar system ever since we have plenty of raw materials in the asteroid belt beyond Mars. Planetary over crowding isn't a real issue since you could build really giant mile cubed buildings, underground, in space, or on other planets or moons. You might still be interested in sending long duration research probes, but that wouldn't leave any evidence it was ever there.

If light speed really is a hard limit, it may just not be possible or desirable to run a space empire where it takes hundreds of years to communicate messages. If you are talking distances of thousands of light years via space magic suspended animation, you run the risk of the colony worlds eventually developing into different species.

[mistermack]

Well, we already have fusion available. In space, solar fusion energy is virtually unlimited.
It's only here on Earth that it's limited. The same thing applies to living space. It's virtually unlimited, outside of Earth.
We just need to get off the planet in a big way.
There really is no need to travel to other solar systems. We would only do it because it's there. Like Everest.