The fear of North Korea

[JimC]

As a maths teacher, I hesitate to intrude, but shouldn't "badder" be replaced by "worse"?

[Ian]

After rolling my eyes over this situation for the past couple weeks, I suddenly got a bad feeling about N. Korea today. Probably nothing though. I'm not psychic.

Nobody even suggested you were psychotic.

Speak for yourself.

That bad feeling, Ian. Is there a rationale behind it, or intuition? I also have a badder feeling about this round than any since that submarine incident in '96.

Nothing really specific, I think it's just intuition. The optimist inside me is still saying that KJU (and his handlers) are just preparing the way for negotiations which will bring about an actual treaty instead of an armistice. But for once, my optimistic side is not feeling very confident about its reasoning.

Some of the steps the DPRK has been taking are rather unprecedented, such as pulling out thousands of workers from Kaesong, severing the crisis line with the ROK, asking British and Russian embassy personnel to leave before April 10th, etc. And the leader nowadays a young guy, barely in office, and by many accounts is an overgrown spoiled brat. Also, regardless of his real intentions, there may be other factors which could lead his country to disaster: a military accident brought about by higher tensions which prompts a response, a misunderstanding, a miscalculation on the ROK's current level of toleration for another Cheonan or Yeonpyong incident, etc.

Personally, I think the odds are currently one in three that the shit is going to hit the fan on the peninsula sometime within the coming days, weeks or months. Wise and rational heads stand ready to assure us that the DPRK wouldn't do anything on purpose to start a conflict since, one way or the other, they would end up on the disastrously losing end of it. But this thinking, that national leaders weigh risks and gains and make rationed, calculated decisions, is a holdover from theories of economic behavior. Other factors contribute to international affairs. The Japanese should've known better than to attack Pearl Harbor, the Argentines should've known better than to attack the Falklands, the Arab states should've known better than to attack Israel in 1973, et cetera, et cetera... We've not come to the end of history yet, and the Korean War part II is a distinct possibility.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

General: Sir, are you ready to give the order to launch our nuclear missiles?

KJU: Yes, I am.

General whips out pistol and shots KJU. "That's not a good idea, sir. May I suggest an alternative course of action."

[Ian]

Maybe. But it's not just KJU and a bunch of Generals. His uncle and some other political bigshots hold a lot of power, including over the military. And we shouldn't underestimate the importance of palace politics. KJU may end up in a place where he feels obligated to bite instead of just bark, in order to retain his credibility with his subordinates. I'm no expert on Korean culture, but I do get the sense that age is very important when determining respect, and KJU has needed to build up his bona fides with the elites around him very quickly. Many believe that's the main reason behind the Cheonan and Yeonpyong incidents - they were opportunities for him to get involved in a crisis, maybe even lead the DPRK through it on behalf of his father, in order to build up his credentials with the people who would surround him once KJI was gone.

Historical example of what I mean by palace politics: a good part of the reasoning behind Khruschev's decision the sneak missiles into Cuba may have been to shore up support from the hardliners in Moscow. He had recently downsized the Soviet Army for economic reasons, and the Soviets were also perfectly well aware that they lagged far behind the US in ballistic missiles in 1962, thus sending a few dozen warheads to within range of the states was a quick and cheap way to not only gain a military edge in the Cold War, but it would appease many in the Kremlin. But then there was the American response to it, before the Soviets could complete their covert fait accompli...

[FBM]

As a maths teacher, I hesitate to intrude, but shouldn't "badder" be replaced by "worse"?

Is that a gooder word?

[pErvinalia]

I feel sorry for how persecuted you feel (on behalf of Merka) coit.

You really are humor-challenged, rEv.

Bollocks. I know he was shrouding it in a veil of humour, but he constantly does this. There's no doubt in my mind he feels America is persecuted.

[FBM]

Ian, I can't think of much to add to that. It's pretty much dead on the mark, as far as I can tell. Yes, KJU's age is a factor. His generals were generals before he was born, and it is VERY difficult for a seasoned old man to take orders from a kid in his twenties, especially if the old men are generals and the kid has never served in the military. Notice how they were throwing medals at him as soon as he was tipped for succession.

[pErvinalia]

I feel sorry for how persecuted you feel (on behalf of Merka) coit.

i don't feel persecuted. I'm just laughing at you folks who make that kind of argument routinely.

Except we don't (unless it is warranted and backed up by evidence).

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I feel sorry for how persecuted you feel (on behalf of Merka) coit.

You really are humor-challenged, rEv.

Bollocks. I know he was shrouding it in a veil of humour, but he constantly does this. There's no doubt in my mind he feels America is persecuted.

Okay then.

[pErvinalia]

Are we at war yet?

[FBM]

Gimme a sec to look out the window...no...not as far as I can see, but I can't quite make out the DMZ from here.

[Warren Dew]

Historical example of what I mean by palace politics: a good part of the reasoning behind Khruschev's decision the sneak missiles into Cuba may have been to shore up support from the hardliners in Moscow. He had recently downsized the Soviet Army for economic reasons, and the Soviets were also perfectly well aware that they lagged far behind the US in ballistic missiles in 1962, thus sending a few dozen warheads to within range of the states was a quick and cheap way to not only gain a military edge in the Cold War, but it would appease many in the Kremlin. But then there was the American response to it, before the Soviets could complete their covert fait accompli...

I'd have thought the Americans withdrawing their missiles from Turkey would have helped Kruschev with the hard liners as well.

[FBM]

A'ite. NK just told SK to get ready to evacuate foreigners. Fugg 'em. I'm staying.

[pErvinalia]

Seriously, if US/SK don't launch a preemptive strike soon, I'm going to fucking do it myself.

[Svartalf]

A'ite. NK just told SK to get ready to evacuate foreigners. Fugg 'em. I'm staying.

Unless the crisis is making available chicks super horny, bailing out until it's over might be a good idea.