The fear of North Korea

[FBM]

I just find it hard to imagine China jumping in uninvited and trying to take over NK. They'd lose both the US and SK as trading partners, not to mention those on the UNSC who would probably follow suit. Doesn't make economic sense, and everything bows down before the idol of economics.

I don't know, the US might prefer a Chinese occupation of NK to it being run by the current crew, if it meant the nuke programme, for example, being shut down.

China would just expand its nuke placements, no? Yes, Chinese management would be preferable to what's there now, but SK would never stand for it, and they're more strongly allied to the US. But SK hasn't the military might to stand up to China, so the whole question - if that scenario were to unfold - would be the US response to an SK plea for intervention. This is why I drink.

[Clinton Huxley]

"When is China going to stop thinking it's the world's policeman!"

There's a new sheriff in town....

[Coito ergo sum]

Maybe the US should hand over responsibility for the defense of South Korea to the South Koreans. US involvement is really the cause of all the resentment between south and north, and the Chinese wouldn't be at all involved in Korea if it wasn't for the US. If anything, we should let the Japanese rearm and handle the situation. If anyone is sympathetic to the Koreans, it's the Japanese.

[klr]

Maybe the US should hand over responsibility for the defense of South Korea to the South Koreans. US involvement is really the cause of all the resentment between south and north, and the Chinese wouldn't be at all involved in Korea if it wasn't for the US. If anything, we should let the Japanese rearm and handle the situation. If anyone is sympathetic to the Koreans, it's the Japanese.

Many Koreans would not exactly see it like that methinks.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

"When is China going to stop thinking it's the world's policeman!"

There's a new sheriff in town....

Good. Maybe now fewer Americans will die "over there".

[Coito ergo sum]

Maybe the US should hand over responsibility for the defense of South Korea to the South Koreans. US involvement is really the cause of all the resentment between south and north, and the Chinese wouldn't be at all involved in Korea if it wasn't for the US. If anything, we should let the Japanese rearm and handle the situation. If anyone is sympathetic to the Koreans, it's the Japanese.

Many Koreans would not exactly see it like that methinks.

You may have failed to notice my tongue planted firmly in my cheek...

But, seriously, the way to solve this is to hand over responsibility for the defense of South Korea to those who think that it's none of anyone's business but the Koreans, and let the chips fall where they may.

[FBM]

I just find it hard to imagine China jumping in uninvited and trying to take over NK. They'd lose both the US and SK as trading partners, not to mention those on the UNSC who would probably follow suit. Doesn't make economic sense, and everything bows down before the idol of economics.

Exactly. And since a unified Korea* would be a healthier trading partner for China than just SK alone, why prop up NK? A side-benefit for China might be that US military presence on the Korean peninsula would be reduced over time.

*Unified along the lines of South Korea of course, not the "Workers Paradise".

NK have shown their economic aptitude already. And it's been costing China for decades now. And yes, SK would have no more need of the expensive US military presence once reunification was achieved. It has no other significant military threats to it. Win, win, win...except for poor ol' Uncle Sam, I guess. He'd have to retreat to Japan. Which is like, just right across the street in terms of military presence in Northeast Asia. But still, it's not like they would become SK's enemies or anything.

[Clinton Huxley]

Maybe the US should hand over responsibility for the defense of South Korea to the South Koreans. US involvement is really the cause of all the resentment between south and north, and the Chinese wouldn't be at all involved in Korea if it wasn't for the US. If anything, we should let the Japanese rearm and handle the situation. If anyone is sympathetic to the Koreans, it's the Japanese.

You'll need to move those troops from S. Korea anyway, to police the demilitarised zone between England and Scotland, should the referendum go the wrong way....

[Coito ergo sum]

To save money, just beef up Hadrian's Wall. Just do try to keep the Newcastle breweries open.

[Clinton Huxley]

To save money, just beef up Hadrian's Wall. Just do try to keep the Newcastle breweries open.

We will have to beef up the gun emplacements around Berwick Upon Tweed. I don't trust that Kim Il McSalmond.

[klr]

Maybe the US should hand over responsibility for the defense of South Korea to the South Koreans. US involvement is really the cause of all the resentment between south and north, and the Chinese wouldn't be at all involved in Korea if it wasn't for the US. If anything, we should let the Japanese rearm and handle the situation. If anyone is sympathetic to the Koreans, it's the Japanese.

You'll need to move those troops from S. Korea anyway, to police the demilitarised zone between England and Scotland, should the referendum go the wrong way....

You could always hire some Scottish mercenaries to do that.

[Coito ergo sum]

Kim Il McSalmond, from the Clan Il McSalmond?

[Coito ergo sum]

Maybe the US should hand over responsibility for the defense of South Korea to the South Koreans. US involvement is really the cause of all the resentment between south and north, and the Chinese wouldn't be at all involved in Korea if it wasn't for the US. If anything, we should let the Japanese rearm and handle the situation. If anyone is sympathetic to the Koreans, it's the Japanese.

You'll need to move those troops from S. Korea anyway, to police the demilitarised zone between England and Scotland, should the referendum go the wrong way....

You could always hire some Scottish mercenaries to do that.

Mercenaries? I thought they were marzipanaries...

[MiM]

Maybe the US should hand over responsibility for the defense of South Korea to the South Koreans. US involvement is really the cause of all the resentment between south and north, and the Chinese wouldn't be at all involved in Korea if it wasn't for the US. If anything, we should let the Japanese rearm and handle the situation. If anyone is sympathetic to the Koreans, it's the Japanese.

Many Koreans would not exactly see it like that methinks.

You may have failed to notice my tongue planted firmly in my cheek...

But, seriously, the way to solve this is to hand over responsibility for the defense of South Korea to those who think that it's none of anyone's business but the Koreans, and let the chips fall where they may.

Pulling off the nuclear umbrella, would be a sure way to get the South Koreans to arm themselves to the teeth with nukes. And a second nuke race is really nothing anyone wants. Things are already starting to look bad.

[Warren Dew]

...
I would also note that China's plan if North Korea goes to war with the south is a preemptive invasion of North Korea...

I'm curious about this statement, Warren. Is this your estimation, or have others predict it, also? Not saying I agree or disagree, just curious. It hadn't occurred to me before.

It showed up in a source I consider trustworthy on these issues - I think it was Stratfor - and it made sense to me once I heard it, since it was already clear to me that North Korea starting a war would be against China's interests.