The fear of North Korea

[klr]

How long for the S. Korean airforce and USAF to take out the static NK artillery positions?

Most static artillery would presumably be well hidden and/or well protected.

But the problem with static artillery these days is that it's very easy to work out from the shell trajectory exactly where the gun is placed. That's why most artillery is mobile, so the gun can do a runner while a volley of shells are still in the air. In fact, the opposing side may well have already fired back well before your own shells land ("counter-battery" fire).

You have to believe for all their rhetoric, those at the very top of the NK leadership know full well that launching any serious attack would mean the end of North Korea, and the end of them personally. What's more, the must surely know that this would happen extremely quickly. The Japanese leadership c. 1941 could at least count (or so they thought) on wearing down the will of the USA and others in a prolonged fight that would follow if they went to war.

But then I'm a realist. I sometimes find it hard to put myself in the position of such people.

Bush and Blair (apparently) convinced themselves of the wisdom of invading Iraq. They even believed dubious evidence to convince themselves. War is irrational and pretty well always an evil thing, so why should we expect rationality from those who wage it?

Whatever the issues with the 2003 invasion, I think it would be wrong to try and equate it with a hypothetical North Korean attack. The particulars of each case are just too different.

And while much war is indeed "irrational", there are also plenty of examples from history where leaders took a very calculated gamble in launching aggressive action - and often got away it, more's the pity.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I imagine given the time they have had for rehearsal the thing would all go off like clockwork and certainly all the major targets would be gone in the first hour.

There's a whole non-existent agency dedicated to locating assets in NK to go "on the list" for targeting if the shit hits the fan. They've pretty much run out of ways to spoof the snoopers in that department.

[Clinton Huxley]

The Glorious Glosters could pick up another Presidential Unit Citation.

[klr]

The Glorious Glosters could pick up another Presidential Unit Citation.

They'd have to be reformed first, before you could even think of camping out by the Imjin river again.

[Clinton Huxley]

The Glorious Glosters could pick up another Presidential Unit Citation.

They'd have to be reformed first, before you could even think of camping out by the Imjin river again.

Their genes are still there in some other formation

[Gawdzilla Sama]

The Glorious Glosters could pick up another Presidential Unit Citation.

They'd have to be reformed first, before you could even think of camping out by the Imjin river again.

After tea, old chap, after tea.

[FBM]

How long for the S. Korean airforce and USAF to take out the static NK artillery positions?

Two minutes after the war actually starts.
Seriously.

Looks like they've dug caves to hide the big guns in over the years. It would take some pretty accurate smart bombs to hit the entrances precisely enough to disable the most important artillery. This issue crops up in the local news from time to time. I don't think the NK air force is much, but them and their ground-based AA tech would make it a job. It won't be over in a few minutes, I think. And I think it would be dangerous for SK and the USFK to assume it would be.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

How long for the S. Korean airforce and USAF to take out the static NK artillery positions?

Two minutes after the war actually starts.
Seriously.

Looks like they've dug caves to hide the big guns in over the years. It would take some pretty accurate smart bombs to hit the entrances precisely enough to disable the most important artillery. This issue crops up in the local news from time to time. I don't think the NK air force is much, but them and their ground-based AA tech would make it a job. It won't be over in a few minutes, I think. And I think it would be dangerous for SK and the USFK to assume it would be.

We've had a few years to get the go-booms right for caves.

[FBM]

North Korea launching an attack against South Korea or anyone else would be a remarkably bad idea since, one way or another, it would end disastrously for the North.

However, explaining that to ourselves as the #1 reason why they'll never do any such thing runs a fine line between rational assessment and wishful thinking. The same sort of thing could be said about Japan prior to Pearl Harbor; prior to the attack, many Japanese leaders, including those responsible for deciding to attack, knew full well that Japan could not prevail in a full-scale war against they US. They talked themselves into attacking anyway.

People tend to look at predicting a nation's behavior like they look at economics: that the leaders will weigh risks and rewards rationally and choose the most pragmatic course of action for their nation. But many other factors often come into play, and history is replete with instances of groups of people, from army companies up to whole nations, running headlong into catastrophe - even when, in hindsight, they were being irrationally reckless with their own existence.

I think you're right on target there. The current Kim may find himself in an internal power pinch that the rest of the world may never know about.

You also touched close to another issue that I don't think gets enough attention. NK has some ability to affect the KOSPI by scaring overseas investors who tend to react to NK's behavior more strongly than the locals. To a certain extent, NK can be seen as holding the KOSPI hostage, and one thing SK doesn't want to do is sacrifice its economy for reunification.

[FBM]

I think they can cause some trouble for South Korea, and that's where FBM lives

That's so thoughtful and caring of you! If I'd been drunk when I read that, I may have cried.

[pErvinalia]

You're not drunk?

[pErvinalia]

What would happen if say NK launched a small nuke at some smaller town of Sth Korea? Would the US immediately react by nuking pong nang?

[Rum]

No such thing as a small nuke. But I'm sure all these scenarios have been calculated by the planners.

[pErvinalia]

I guess I want to know the thinking. Say NK nukes 20,000 people. Does pong and it's 'x' millions of people get nuked? I mean, we are literally talking about the possibility of the annihilation of an entire people (or towards that vicinity). The other issue to consider is atmospheric (and potentially water?) pollution affecting SK and China. It's a fucking scary scenario.

[Clinton Huxley]

I was wondering what the response to an NK nuke would be. Massive nuclear response? Counter-productive. Tactical nuke strike against NKs remaining nuke facilities to stop them launching another one? Massive conventional response and invasion?