A coming recession?

[Coito ergo sum]

U.S. companies are scaling back investment plans at the fastest pace since the recession, signaling more trouble for the economic recovery.


U.S. companies are scaling back investment plans at the fastest pace since the recession, signaling more trouble for the economic recovery. Sudeep Reddy reports on Markets Hub. Photo: AP.

Half of the nation's 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of securities filings and conference calls.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 25394.html

[amused]

[Coito ergo sum]

New home sales drop -- http://www.cnbc.com/id/49993293

[JimC]

"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan, In accents most forlorn, Outside the church, ere Mass began, One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about, Coat-collars to the ears, And talked of stock, and crops, and drought, As it had done for years.
"It's lookin' crook," said Daniel Croke; "Bedad, it's cruke, me lad, For never since the banks went broke Has seasons been so bad."
"It's dry, all right," said young O'Neil, With which astute remark He squatted down upon his heel And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran "It's keepin' dry, no doubt." "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan, "Before the year is out.
"The crops are done; ye'll have your work To save one bag of grain; From here way out to Back-o'-Bourke They're singin' out for rain.
"They're singin' out for rain," he said, "And all the tanks are dry." The congregation scratched its head, And gazed around the sky.
"There won't be grass, in any case, Enough to feed an ass; There's not a blade on Casey's place As I came down to Mass."
"If rain don't come this month," said Dan, And cleared his throat to speak-- "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan, "If rain don't come this week."
A heavy silence seemed to steal On all at this remark; And each man squatted on his heel, And chewed a piece of bark.
"We want a inch of rain, we do," O'Neil observed at last; But Croke "maintained" we wanted two To put the danger past.
"If we don't get three inches, man, Or four to break this drought, We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan, "Before the year is out."
In God's good time down came the rain; And all the afternoon On iron roof and window-pane It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still, And lightsome, gladsome elves On dripping spout and window-sill Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long, A-singing at its work, Till every heart took up the song Way out to Back-o'Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran, And dams filled overtop; "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan, "If this rain doesn't stop."
And stop it did, in God's good time; And spring came in to fold A mantle o'er the hills sublime Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet, With harvest-hopes immense, And laughing eyes beheld the wheat Nid-nodding o'er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face, As happy lad and lass Through grass knee-deep on Casey's place Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel Discoursed the men of mark, And each man squatted on his heel, And chewed his piece of bark.
"There'll be bush-fires for sure, me man, There will, without a doubt; We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan, "Before the year is out."

I was tempted to change Hanrahan to CES...

[Coito ergo sum]

GDP in the negative for 4th Quarter 2012.

Unemployment up to 7.9%

8,500,000 people left the labor force in Obama's first term and another 170,000 gone in January.

Gasoline (Petrol, to you Brits) to hit $4 a gallon again soon.

And, now Ed Koch is dead.

This will all end in tears.

[laklak]

If GDP contracts again in first quarter 2013 then we're officially in recession. Most fortune tellers economists see 4th quarter 2012 as a one-off, but we'll just have to wait and see.

[Coito ergo sum]

If GDP contracts again in first quarter 2013 then we're officially in recession. Most fortune tellers economists see 4th quarter 2012 as a one-off, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Economists say the U.S. economy would likely grow much more quickly if the government was not raising taxes.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/ ... 3320130102

But...but...but... the Bush tax cuts hurt the economy and the economy does better when taxes are higher, like under Clinton, so, how could it be that raising taxes would be a drag on the economy? Must be those crazy economists....

[Randydeluxe]

I just noticed this thread and was reminded of its predecessor from three years ago: http://rationalia.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=12341

I used to wonder if right-wingers would ever get tired of being proven so utterly wrong on economics for such long stretches that it's hard to keep track of just how monstrously wrong they always are.

I don't wonder any more. I think they get off to it.

[Coito ergo sum]

I just noticed this thread and was reminded of its predecessor from three years ago: http://rationalia.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=12341

I used to wonder if right-wingers would ever get tired of being proven so utterly wrong on economics for such long stretches that it's hard to keep track of just how monstrously wrong they always are.

I don't wonder any more. I think they get off to it.

Well, right, and the economy has been in malaise, ever since, barely staying above water. And, it doesn't change the fact that we did contract, and the economy is much worse today than it was through most of the Bush administration. By far.

[Ian]

I'd call you a broken record, but at least a broken record keeps saying the same thing. You just find new ways to look pessimistic, even as trends keep improving.

What the hell am I talking about, you ask? How could I be so blind, you ask? Easy answer: Go back to the beginning of your "here comes the other economic shoe dropping" thread and compare that data to what you're whining about these days.

EDIT: Just to be clear, this is not really a liberal-conservative partisan thing for me. That's terciary at best. Mostly, it's an optimist-pessimist thing for me. I tend to be an optimist, and you're ever the pessimist about economic news. My reactions to you are also about realism. To take just today's example: the markets have been surging all month long, and what did they do after this morning's dismal (clearly your view) jobs report came out? They all jumped upwards at the opening bell, and the Dow ended the day 149 points higher, closing above 14k for the first time since 2007. Perhaps all those traders know something you don't? Maybe?

[macdoc]

Well, right, and the economy has been in malaise, ever since, barely staying above water. And, it doesn't change the fact that we did contract, and the economy is much worse today than it was through most of the Bush administration. By far.

Such a bunch of crap coito - you had a totally bubble GDP ( the world too ) that collapsed in 2008. Bush authored a good portion by ignoring or eliminating regulations on the economics activity which led to such a mess. Even Bernacke admitted he was wrong and that unregulated finance led to disaster.

THESE guys knew it - well before the fall. Perhaps you should take the time to read both articles and understand why there is no fix but a slow rebalance .....or let the banks fail which has a different set of consequences.

#

House prices: After the fall | The Economist
http://www.economist.com/node/4079458 - Cached
After the fall. Soaring house prices have given a huge boost to the world
economy. What happens when they drop? Jun 16th 2005 ·

Tweet ...
#
The global housing boom: In come the waves | The Economist
http://www.economist.com/node/4079027 - Cached
16 Jun 2005 ... House prices: After the fallJun 16th 2005; Economic slowdown: The ... of house
prices in the world economy prompted The Economist to start ...

The whole world economy is at risk. The IMF has warned that, just as the upswing in house prices has been a global phenomenon, so any downturn is likely to be synchronised, and thus the effects of it will be shared widely. The housing boom was fun while it lasted, but the biggest increase in wealth in history was largely an illusion.

what the fuck do you think happens once the stupidity is over .....the bubble money has to be squeezed out of the real economy and we're fortunate there has been less contraction than the 40% that should have occurred.

According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.

all phantom money and the engineers of that mess have barely paid for it.....every fucking bank on the planet with a few exceptions should have gone under and still should. The Libor scandal emerging is just one example of malfeasance on a monumental scale.

I really wonder some times is right wingers have a clue how the world actually works.

can I offer you an interest in a rare tulip

[pErvinalia]

Well, right, and the economy has been in malaise, ever since, barely staying above water. And, it doesn't change the fact that we did contract, and the economy is much worse today than it was through most of the Bush administration. By far.

Such a bunch of crap coito - you had a totally bubble GDP ( the world too ) that collapsed in 2008. Bush authored a good portion by ignoring or eliminating regulations on the economics activity which led to such a mess. Even Bernacke admitted he was wrong and that unregulated finance led to disaster.

THESE guys knew it - well before the fall. Perhaps you should take the time to read both articles and understand why there is no fix but a slow rebalance .....or let the banks fail which has a different set of consequences.

[Cormac]

So anyway, why will tax increases contribute to a recession?

Why would they not?

Taxes always contribute to a shrinkage in spending.

[pErvinalia]

Evidence?

[macdoc]

He has none

Spending by government generally spins off 7 times more economic activity.

Just take a look at the lowest tax states in the US for evidence of that. Poorest of the poor.

The Nordic states have very high taxes and are extremely prosperous ...it's how it's managed and what you get for the tax you pay.