The US fiscal cliff - would it really be a bad thing?

[Jesus_of_Nazareth]

My understanding is that it would mean a lot of (automatic) tax hikes (which the Democrats wants) and a lot of spending cuts (which the Republicans want)....everyone is a winner .

The effect (of doing all that instantly) would be a couple of years of recession, but after that maybe not such a bad thing?

The compromise simply being on the timing not the fundamentals (tax more - spend less)......my bet is that things will simply get kicked forward a year or 2 - at which point the spending cuts would not be so destructive to the wider economy, so the Democrats can then sell the cliff as a good thing (and then get back to business as usual of trading spending hikes for tax cuts for the rich).

[laklak]

I think it would be a good thing. Run the fucking bus off the cliff, we're all Bozos on it anyway.

[amused]

They intentionally created the fiscal cliff with the thinking that it would force a compromise:

The Budget Control Act of 2011 was passed under the political environment of a partisan stalemate, in which Democrats and Republicans could not agree on how to reduce the deficit. It was thought that the blunt cuts of budget sequestration and sharp revenue increases would be mutually undesirable to both parties and provide an impetus and deadline to bring the sides together to solve the deficit problem.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_cliff

[laklak]

I honestly think we should drive right over it. Something has to drive home the inescapable truth that we have to live within our means. You cannot have the sort of society that it appears we want, i.e. one moving towards Western European social democracy, without seriously cutting spending in other areas and raising taxes. Both parties are talking shit. Raising the marginal rate a few points on "rich people" (fill in your own definition of "rich") won't do shit, it's a literal drop in the bucket. Letting the rich "create jobs" is bullshit. Neither of them want to tell the American public the hard truth - you're going to have to work harder, longer and take home a lot less of your paycheck if we're going to get out of this hole.

If I were in the GOP leadership I'd simply stand aside. Let the Looney Left wing of the Democratic party have their head. Go for it. Make everything free. Health care, cell phones, cars, pizza, new washing machines, whatever. Shut down small businesses, drive multinationals offshore, send all the liquid capital into Australian bonds. When we're all eating Soylent Green together maybe we can start talking about reality instead of pie in the sky.

[Seth]

I honestly think we should drive right over it. Something has to drive home the inescapable truth that we have to live within our means. You cannot have the sort of society that it appears we want, i.e. one moving towards Western European social democracy, without seriously cutting spending in other areas and raising taxes. Both parties are talking shit. Raising the marginal rate a few points on "rich people" (fill in your own definition of "rich") won't do shit, it's a literal drop in the bucket. Letting the rich "create jobs" is bullshit. Neither of them want to tell the American public the hard truth - you're going to have to work harder, longer and take home a lot less of your paycheck if we're going to get out of this hole.

If I were in the GOP leadership I'd simply stand aside. Let the Looney Left wing of the Democratic party have their head. Go for it. Make everything free. Health care, cell phones, cars, pizza, new washing machines, whatever. Shut down small businesses, drive multinationals offshore, send all the liquid capital into Australian bonds. When we're all eating Soylent Green together maybe we can start talking about reality instead of pie in the sky.

I'm with ya Laklak. Sometimes you have to let the system collapse for people to really understand what they did to themselves. I'm headed for Arcadia or perhaps Texas after the spasm of violence and cannibalism is over. The bunker is becoming a much better investment these days.

[laklak]

I've been brushing up on my meat curing skills, particularly in the bacon, ham and sausage areas. I'm betting long pork will be a decent substitute for piggies, who will rapidly disappear as the ravening hordes of urbanites boil out of the collapsing cities and overrun the countryside, consuming everything in their path like a swarm of mutant locusts.

[Jason]

So long as you're going to be down in your bunker anyway, can I have your stuff?

[Seth]

I've been brushing up on my meat curing skills, particularly in the bacon, ham and sausage areas. I'm betting long pork will be a decent substitute for piggies, who will rapidly disappear as the ravening hordes of urbanites boil out of the collapsing cities and overrun the countryside, consuming everything in their path like a swarm of mutant locusts.

That's why Texas is a very good place to move to. In addition to having a very well-armed populace, it has the highest population of feral hogs in the US...literally millions of them. So many in fact that you can shoot a feral hog any time, any where (with permission and inside city limits excepted), using any weapon, day or night, and you don't even have to butcher them, you can just leave them to rot if you want.

Come the Revolution, Texas will take advantage of its right to secede and Texas feral hogs will become a major food source, so you won't need long pig because the real thing will be abundant...for those with the arms, technology and skill to hunt them...like me.

My dual-tube PVS-14 NVG's mounted on my Team Wendy bump helmet makes night navigation through the brush easy thanks to the stereoscopic vision the setup offers and is complimented by my Colt AR-15 with Lewis Machine Tool MRP upper in Remington 6.8 SPC mounted with my Insight AN/PEQ-2 TIPAL (legal LE trade-in not stolen military property) and Leupold Mark 6 1-6x20 behind my L3 CNVD-LR clip-on, supported by my Raytheon W1000-9 Thermal Weapon Sight as an observation/detection device makes me an efficient night pig killer...long or otherwise. All that's left for the suite is the AAC silencer, which along with the AAC can for my Sako TRG-42 .338 Lapua Magnum long-range rifle, is waiting for BATFE approval.

Here piggie, piggie, piggie...

[Seth]

So long as you're going to be down in your bunker anyway, can I have your stuff?

Nope. What I don't bug out with will be burned and blown up to deny its use to my enemies a la Sherman.

[Wumbologist]

I'm with ya Laklak. Sometimes you have to let the system collapse for people to really understand what they did to themselves. I'm headed for Arcadia or perhaps Texas after the spasm of violence and cannibalism is over. The bunker is becoming a much better investment these days.

Fuck bunkers. As one of the rare armed citizens of MA I plan to stay aboveground and rise to power as the chief of my own tribe of post-apocalyptic raiders.

[Seth]

I'm with ya Laklak. Sometimes you have to let the system collapse for people to really understand what they did to themselves. I'm headed for Arcadia or perhaps Texas after the spasm of violence and cannibalism is over. The bunker is becoming a much better investment these days.

Fuck bunkers. As one of the rare armed citizens of MA I plan to stay aboveground and rise to power as the chief of my own tribe of post-apocalyptic raiders.

You have to survive the spasm of mindless violence and chaos that will occur about a week or so after the food deliveries to major metropolitan areas come to a halt when the fuel supplies are disrupted. We're no longer 30 days away from starvation and riots, we're about a week because grocery chains no longer have large local food distribution warehouses, they now depend on "just in time delivery" systems that leaves but three days worth of supplies in any given store once the trucks stop rolling. This is exactly what's happening in NYC and New Jersey right now, and the only thing that's preventing widespread rioting and looting is the determination of the nation to bail out the afflicted area. When that stops, as it will in a depression/crash, every major metropolitan area will be completely on its own, and even the military won't be able to supply enough food, water, medicine or shelter. People are going to die by the tens or hundreds of millions in the collapse as the rural food-producing areas fort-up and deny food to outsiders.

It'll all go very local and feudal, and those with the arms, ammunition and willingness to use them will be the Kings.

But initially it's going to be necessary to survive (or evade) the worst of the rioting, for a few months during which vast numbers of urban dependent class drones will starve to death, riot, and eventually start eating each other.

Only then can the rebuilding begin on a local basis, and the eastern seaboard is NOT the place to be. Too many people chasing too few goods...and food...and each other. I'm headed for the wide-open spaces where game is plentiful and people are few.

[mistermack]

The last resort, when people stop spending, is to tax assets.

There was a furious debate when income tax was originally introduced as a short-term measure.
It's ingrained in the system now. Sales taxes take the pressure off income tax and are easy to collect.

But an asset tax would be a great instrument for stability. The government could always guarantee to pay it's bills. And the asset tax could go up or down, depending on the financial situation.

If there was a deep recession, and the government decided to bring it in, people would start spending, rather than get taxed on assets, which would lift the economy out of recession, removing the need for taxing assets.

The fiscal cliff would be a great time to bring it in. Don't think it would get through the congress though.
Unless the government was broke and people weren't getting paid. Like Greece. But the greeks haven't resorted to it yet.

[Tero]

No. Take a leap of faith.

[Warren Dew]

The last resort, when people stop spending, is to tax assets.

There was a furious debate when income tax was originally introduced as a short-term measure.
It's ingrained in the system now. Sales taxes take the pressure off income tax and are easy to collect.

But an asset tax would be a great instrument for stability. The government could always guarantee to pay it's bills. And the asset tax could go up or down, depending on the financial situation.

If there was a deep recession, and the government decided to bring it in, people would start spending, rather than get taxed on assets, which would lift the economy out of recession, removing the need for taxing assets.

The fiscal cliff would be a great time to bring it in. Don't think it would get through the congress though.
Unless the government was broke and people weren't getting paid. Like Greece. But the greeks haven't resorted to it yet.

The billionaires have too much power for an asset tax to pass.

[Warren Dew]

By the way, for the Europeans, "driving off the fiscal cliff" is the same thing as austerity - increased taxes with decreased spending.