What are the odds....?
-
Blind groper
- Posts: 3997
- Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2012 3:10 am
- About me: From New Zealand
- Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
I love statistics!
For every human action, there is a rationalisation and a reason. Only sometimes do they coincide.
-
FBM
- Ratz' first Gritizen.
- Posts: 45327
- Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:43 pm
- About me: Skeptic. "Because it does not contend
It is therefore beyond reproach" - Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
Mind-bending..
"A philosopher is a blind man in a dark room looking for a black cat that isn't there. A theologian is the man who finds it." ~ H. L. Mencken
"We ain't a sharp species. We kill each other over arguments about what happens when you die, then fail to see the fucking irony in that."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions in favor of vegetarianism while the wolf remains of a different opinion."
"We ain't a sharp species. We kill each other over arguments about what happens when you die, then fail to see the fucking irony in that."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions in favor of vegetarianism while the wolf remains of a different opinion."
-
Xamonas Chegwé
- Bouncer
- Posts: 50939
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:23 pm
- About me: I have prehensile eyebrows.
I speak 9 languages fluently, one of which other people can also speak.
When backed into a corner, I fit perfectly - having a right-angled arse. - Location: Nottingham UK
- Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
No matter how large the odds, there is still a non-zero probability that a pack of cards has been shuffled into that order before! The chances against it happening are astronomical but it is still possible. Stephen Fry, much as I admire him, is simply wrong when he says that he can make his claim with "absolute certainty". 
A huge probability does not equate to certainty!
A huge probability does not equate to certainty!
A book is a version of the world. If you do not like it, ignore it; or offer your own version in return.
Salman Rushdie
You talk to God, you're religious. God talks to you, you're psychotic.
House MD
Who needs a meaning anyway, I'd settle anyday for a very fine view.
Sandy Denny
This is the wrong forum for bluffing
Paco
Yes, yes. But first I need to show you this venomous fish!
Calilasseia
I think we should do whatever Pawiz wants.
Twoflower
Bella squats momentarily then waddles on still peeing, like a horse
Millefleur
Salman Rushdie
You talk to God, you're religious. God talks to you, you're psychotic.
House MD
Who needs a meaning anyway, I'd settle anyday for a very fine view.
Sandy Denny
This is the wrong forum for bluffing
Paco
Yes, yes. But first I need to show you this venomous fish!
Calilasseia
I think we should do whatever Pawiz wants.
Twoflower
Bella squats momentarily then waddles on still peeing, like a horse
Millefleur
Re: What are the odds....?
Without actually watching the video I'm going to presume the odds are 1 in 5252 (or 1.70676555274e+89) or a 5.85903552128e-90 probability that a pack of cards will be shuffled in exactly that same order.
-
Rum
- Absent Minded Processor
- Posts: 37285
- Joined: Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:25 pm
- Location: South of the border..though not down Mexico way..
- Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
I'd bet a couple of 20s though.Xamonas Chegwé wrote:No matter how large the odds, there is still a non-zero probability that a pack of cards has been shuffled into that order before! The chances against it happening are astronomical but it is still possible. Stephen Fry, much as I admire him, is simply wrong when he says that he can make his claim with "absolute certainty".
A huge probability does not equate to certainty!
-
Blind groper
- Posts: 3997
- Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2012 3:10 am
- About me: From New Zealand
- Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
The number was factorial 52, not E52. A much smaller number, but still immense. I'm with Stephen Fry on this. The probability is not zero, but so close that, for practical purposes, it is close enough.
For every human action, there is a rationalisation and a reason. Only sometimes do they coincide.
Re: What are the odds....?
of course. You're selecting from an ever decreasing pool. Derp!
Re: What are the odds....?
This is bollocks, nearly every time I open a new pack of cards, they are in the same order.
-
Xamonas Chegwé
- Bouncer
- Posts: 50939
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:23 pm
- About me: I have prehensile eyebrows.
I speak 9 languages fluently, one of which other people can also speak.
When backed into a corner, I fit perfectly - having a right-angled arse. - Location: Nottingham UK
- Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
So would I. Again and again. By the time I lost, I would almost certainly have won so much I wouldn't notice the loss of £40 against the gain of enough money to buy most of the galaxy at £1million/cubic centimetre.Rum wrote:I'd bet a couple of 20s though.Xamonas Chegwé wrote:No matter how large the odds, there is still a non-zero probability that a pack of cards has been shuffled into that order before! The chances against it happening are astronomical but it is still possible. Stephen Fry, much as I admire him, is simply wrong when he says that he can make his claim with "absolute certainty".
A huge probability does not equate to certainty!
But that doesn't change the fact that I could lose any time I bet!
Somebody wins the lottery most weeks - despite odds that say you are an idiot to buy a ticket. Even more bizarrely unlikely genetic chances meant that all of us happens to be here, right now. Every single one of all of our ancestors managed to live long enough to reproduce - a ridiculously unlikely scenario!
Probability theory is a great tool but it only ever tells you how likely something is to happen - NOT whether it will happen.
A book is a version of the world. If you do not like it, ignore it; or offer your own version in return.
Salman Rushdie
You talk to God, you're religious. God talks to you, you're psychotic.
House MD
Who needs a meaning anyway, I'd settle anyday for a very fine view.
Sandy Denny
This is the wrong forum for bluffing
Paco
Yes, yes. But first I need to show you this venomous fish!
Calilasseia
I think we should do whatever Pawiz wants.
Twoflower
Bella squats momentarily then waddles on still peeing, like a horse
Millefleur
Salman Rushdie
You talk to God, you're religious. God talks to you, you're psychotic.
House MD
Who needs a meaning anyway, I'd settle anyday for a very fine view.
Sandy Denny
This is the wrong forum for bluffing
Paco
Yes, yes. But first I need to show you this venomous fish!
Calilasseia
I think we should do whatever Pawiz wants.
Twoflower
Bella squats momentarily then waddles on still peeing, like a horse
Millefleur
-
FBM
- Ratz' first Gritizen.
- Posts: 45327
- Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:43 pm
- About me: Skeptic. "Because it does not contend
It is therefore beyond reproach" - Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
Xamonas Chegwé wrote:No matter how large the odds, there is still a non-zero probability that a pack of cards has been shuffled into that order before! The chances against it happening are astronomical but it is still possible. Stephen Fry, much as I admire him, is simply wrong when he says that he can make his claim with "absolute certainty".
A huge probability does not equate to certainty!
"for all practical purposes" doesn't wash for me as "absolute certainty." Hume, inference, etc."A philosopher is a blind man in a dark room looking for a black cat that isn't there. A theologian is the man who finds it." ~ H. L. Mencken
"We ain't a sharp species. We kill each other over arguments about what happens when you die, then fail to see the fucking irony in that."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions in favor of vegetarianism while the wolf remains of a different opinion."
"We ain't a sharp species. We kill each other over arguments about what happens when you die, then fail to see the fucking irony in that."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions in favor of vegetarianism while the wolf remains of a different opinion."
-
Xamonas Chegwé
- Bouncer
- Posts: 50939
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:23 pm
- About me: I have prehensile eyebrows.
I speak 9 languages fluently, one of which other people can also speak.
When backed into a corner, I fit perfectly - having a right-angled arse. - Location: Nottingham UK
- Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
We can never rule out the chance of god existing for the same reason that we can never rule out a pack of cards being shuffled into suit order (and with roughly similar odds!) 
A book is a version of the world. If you do not like it, ignore it; or offer your own version in return.
Salman Rushdie
You talk to God, you're religious. God talks to you, you're psychotic.
House MD
Who needs a meaning anyway, I'd settle anyday for a very fine view.
Sandy Denny
This is the wrong forum for bluffing
Paco
Yes, yes. But first I need to show you this venomous fish!
Calilasseia
I think we should do whatever Pawiz wants.
Twoflower
Bella squats momentarily then waddles on still peeing, like a horse
Millefleur
Salman Rushdie
You talk to God, you're religious. God talks to you, you're psychotic.
House MD
Who needs a meaning anyway, I'd settle anyday for a very fine view.
Sandy Denny
This is the wrong forum for bluffing
Paco
Yes, yes. But first I need to show you this venomous fish!
Calilasseia
I think we should do whatever Pawiz wants.
Twoflower
Bella squats momentarily then waddles on still peeing, like a horse
Millefleur
-
JimC
- The sentimental bloke
- Posts: 74180
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 7:58 am
- About me: To be serious about gin requires years of dedicated research.
- Location: Melbourne, Australia
- Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
As BG said, it involves 52 factorial...
52! = 52x51x50x49... and so on...
52! = 52x51x50x49... and so on...
Nurse, where the fuck's my cardigan?
And my gin!
And my gin!
-
Thinking Aloud
- Page Bottomer
- Posts: 20111
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:56 am
- Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
But if that set of cards was brand new (which it most likely was for the show) then he can indeed be absolutely certain that it hadn't been shuffled into that order before.Xamonas Chegwé wrote:No matter how large the odds, there is still a non-zero probability that a pack of cards has been shuffled into that order before! The chances against it happening are astronomical but it is still possible. Stephen Fry, much as I admire him, is simply wrong when he says that he can make his claim with "absolute certainty".
A huge probability does not equate to certainty!
http://thinking-aloud.co.uk/ Musical Me
-
Gawdzilla Sama
- Stabsobermaschinist
- Posts: 151265
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 12:24 am
- About me: My posts are related to the thread in the same way Gliese 651b is related to your mother's underwear drawer.
- Location: Sitting next to Ayaan in Domus Draconis, and communicating via PMs.
- Contact:
Re: What are the odds....?
Therefore GOD!Xamonas Chegwé wrote:No matter how large the odds, there is still a non-zero probability that a pack of cards has been shuffled into that order before! The chances against it happening are astronomical but it is still possible. Stephen Fry, much as I admire him, is simply wrong when he says that he can make his claim with "absolute certainty".
A huge probability does not equate to certainty!
Ein Ubootsoldat wrote:“Ich melde mich ab. Grüssen Sie bitte meine Kameraden.”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests