Election Day, USA!

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Warren Dew
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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Warren Dew » Fri Nov 09, 2012 6:41 am

Ian wrote:Anyway, one thing I WON’T do on this post is try to proclaim this election as a moral victory for Obama, or gloat about how the country collectively made the right choice.
Thanks for that. You're in the definite minority of Obama supporters I've heard from in that respect.
except for one important takeaway point: I sincerely hope that in the aftermath of this loss, Republicans will not chalk up Romney’s defeat to his not being conservative enough.
The rest of your paragraph here is wrong on a critical point. Contrary to the press distortions, Romney was every bit as moderate during the primary as during the general election. It doesn't take any second guessing for the conservatives to say Romney was a moderate, because that's what they were saying throughout the winter and spring. There was no disguise, except for the press filter than only affected the left. Romney was nominated specifically because he was moderate, because moderates were believed to be more electable.

Romney didn't tack to the center in that first debate at all - he just finally had an opportunity to cut through the press distortions by talking directly to the American people. If anything, the conservative base must have seen it as a tack to the right, since that was when there was finally a ground swell of popular support for him from the base.

That said, you are correct - being too moderate was not what did Romney in. Rather, what did Romney in was the natural advantages of an incumbent. Here's my nutshell analysis to my google+ conservative friends:

I want to make three observations about the 2012 election:

1. Incumbent presidents have been defeated only 3 times in the last 80 years. It is extremely difficult to defeat an incumbent.

2. The Republicans' victory in the house of representatives demonstrates that the Tea Party issues and activists that drove the 2010 election are still alive and well. We are not going away.

3. The destruction of the Akin and Mourdock campaigns, and the resultant failure of the Republicans to gain control of the senate, shows that the Tea Party formula is not the same as extreme conservatism. The Tea Party was about economic freedom and liberty, not about whose social views to impose.

It’ll happen, too – keep an eye on guys like Ryan, Rubio and others on the far right – they’ll be rising stars on the path to 2016.
It's amazing that you consider Ryan and Rubio to be "far right". Where do you put people like Santorum and Huckabee - you know, the people who really want to impose their religious beliefs on the whole country?
And who the heck will the Democrats nominate in four years? :dunno:
Hillary Clinton. And she'll be defeated by Mitt Romney.

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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Warren Dew » Fri Nov 09, 2012 6:46 am

PordFrefect wrote:I'm pretty sure the Republicans would win easily if they could convince her to run. As a bonus she's one of the few republicans even democrats don't hate.
Democrats didn't hate Romney until Obama's negative ad campaign got through with him, either. I think a major reason Condi doesn't want to run is exactly because she doesn't want to go through that.

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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Ian » Fri Nov 09, 2012 1:44 pm

Warren Dew wrote:
PordFrefect wrote:I'm pretty sure the Republicans would win easily if they could convince her to run. As a bonus she's one of the few republicans even democrats don't hate.
Democrats didn't hate Romney until Obama's negative ad campaign got through with him, either. I think a major reason Condi doesn't want to run is exactly because she doesn't want to go through that.
It wasn't anything Obama's campaign did that made me go from "meh" to "no way" with Romney. It was his Romney's own comments about 47% of Americans, his comments on immigration, his running to the right on social issues in the primaries (yes, he did), his selection of Paul Ryan, his flap about Libya, etc. Obama commercials talking about Bain Capital or what Massachusets was like during Romney's term there didn't sway me a bit.

A candidate is not guaranteed to come out of a campaign looking as bad as Romney. McCain came through pretty good in 2008, for example; the only time I lost any real respect for him was when he slected Sarah Palin for veep, not from anything Obama might have said about him.

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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Kristie » Fri Nov 09, 2012 1:54 pm

Ian wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:
PordFrefect wrote:I'm pretty sure the Republicans would win easily if they could convince her to run. As a bonus she's one of the few republicans even democrats don't hate.
Democrats didn't hate Romney until Obama's negative ad campaign got through with him, either. I think a major reason Condi doesn't want to run is exactly because she doesn't want to go through that.
It wasn't anything Obama's campaign did that made me go from "meh" to "no way" with Romney. It was his Romney's own comments about 47% of Americans, his comments on immigration, his running to the right on social issues in the primaries (yes, he did), his selection of Paul Ryan, his flap about Libya, etc. Obama commercials talking about Bain Capital or what Massachusets was like during Romney's term there didn't sway me a bit.

A candidate is not guaranteed to come out of a campaign looking as bad as Romney. McCain came through pretty good in 2008, for example; the only time I lost any real respect for him was when he slected Sarah Palin for veep, not from anything Obama might have said about him.
Mostly this!
I don't watch TV, so no commercials swayed my opinion! Romney did that all on his own!
We danced.

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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Red Celt » Fri Nov 09, 2012 2:07 pm

Warren Dew wrote:Hillary Clinton. And she'll be defeated by Mitt Romney.
Hillary is retiring from politics, apparently. That was on one of the political news broadcasts yesterday... which surprised me.
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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Coito ergo sum » Fri Nov 09, 2012 2:22 pm


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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by amused » Fri Nov 09, 2012 2:24 pm

Warren Dew wrote:
PordFrefect wrote:I'm pretty sure the Republicans would win easily if they could convince her to run. As a bonus she's one of the few republicans even democrats don't hate.
Democrats didn't hate Romney until Obama's negative ad campaign got through with him, either. I think a major reason Condi doesn't want to run is exactly because she doesn't want to go through that.
I spent most of the election cycle in Texas, where neither campaign ran ads because it's solidly Republican. I'm an older white male, the Republican core demographic. I always vote party instead of candidate because an individual is temporary and of far lesser influence than the whole party and its platform.

The Republican party platform is mostly wrong on most of the issues I care about while the Democratic party platform is mostly right. So I vote Democrat. The ads had no effect because I never saw them.

The Republicans lost because they are on the wrong side of history in the making.

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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Ian » Fri Nov 09, 2012 2:25 pm

Coito - :tup:

Though I think Vermont and Utah may be drifting towards war with each other... :ask:

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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Coito ergo sum » Fri Nov 09, 2012 2:31 pm

Ian wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:
PordFrefect wrote:I'm pretty sure the Republicans would win easily if they could convince her to run. As a bonus she's one of the few republicans even democrats don't hate.
Democrats didn't hate Romney until Obama's negative ad campaign got through with him, either. I think a major reason Condi doesn't want to run is exactly because she doesn't want to go through that.
It wasn't anything Obama's campaign did that made me go from "meh" to "no way" with Romney. It was his Romney's own comments about 47% of Americans,
That 47% comment bugged me too. I mean, even though I have an understanding of that sentiment, which is that Romney opposes the idea of massive dependency on the government, and I agree that it is unhealthy for people to have a such a massive dependency on the government, I don't know why he would basically name-call against almost half the population. Couldn't he rephrase the same sentiment as a positive about how he would like to reach that 47% of the population by changing the system to one which allows more people to stand on their own two feet, and gives a hand up, rather than a hand out? Instead, he just wrote them off as in "they'll never vote for me, because I'm for personal responsibility." Well, if you write off 47% of the population, then you have to win out of the remaining 53%, and if 5% are going to vote for independents or other parties, then you have to win with 48%. and, if you're not going to get the entire 48%, because obviously some of those will still vote for the other side, then how are you going to win?
Ian wrote:
his comments on immigration,
This I don't understand. He was pretty moderate on immigration.
Ian wrote: his running to the right on social issues in the primaries (yes, he did), his selection of Paul Ryan, his flap about Libya, etc. Obama commercials talking about Bain Capital or what Massachusets was like during Romney's term there didn't sway me a bit.

A candidate is not guaranteed to come out of a campaign looking as bad as Romney. McCain came through pretty good in 2008, for example; the only time I lost any real respect for him was when he slected Sarah Palin for veep, not from anything Obama might have said about him.
The interesting thing for me about this election was that turnout was DOWN among Republicans, even though we heard for months about how motivated the Republicans were this year. Had the same number of Republicans voted for Romney this year as voted for McCain in 2008, the popular vote would have been approximately even.

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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Ayaan » Fri Nov 09, 2012 2:38 pm

Warren Dew wrote:
PordFrefect wrote:I'm pretty sure the Republicans would win easily if they could convince her to run. As a bonus she's one of the few republicans even democrats don't hate.
Democrats didn't hate Romney until Obama's negative ad campaign got through with him, either. I think a major reason Condi doesn't want to run is exactly because she doesn't want to go through that.
Never saw any of the ads even though I live in Missouri. 'Zilla and I mostly watch shows we've recorded (fast forwarding through commercials), stuff off Netflix, shows on channels with too small an audience for the candidates to run ads on, and no major network channels at all. I listen to NPR in the car and 'Zilla usually listens to CD's. Online we get our news from a wide variety of sources. Campaign ads played no part in our political decisions. Romney's own words did him in with us - as did the words of Republican candidates for other offices.
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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by amused » Fri Nov 09, 2012 2:43 pm

Coito ergo sum wrote:...

The interesting thing for me about this election was that turnout was DOWN among Republicans, even though we heard for months about how motivated the Republicans were this year. Had the same number of Republicans voted for Romney this year as voted for McCain in 2008, the popular vote would have been approximately even.
It was way more down for Democrats:

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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Coito ergo sum » Fri Nov 09, 2012 3:17 pm

Yes, but the turnout for Democrats in 2008 was way up. So, the fact that it could be so far down for Obama in 2012 and Romney STILL couldn't motivate Republicans to get to the polls tells me that there were a lot of "who cares?" sentiment between Obama and Romney, or people were just not that enthused by Romney.

I could see the fire going out a bit among Democrats for Obama -- in 2008, it was a whipped up frenzy -- first time black candidate who was actually a condender -- plus, Bush hatred at a fever pitch, and all sorts of factors. It stands to reason that the fire can't be stoked like that constantly, and there was some reason for some Democrats to be disappointed.

But, the opposite would stand to reason for republicans --- McCain ran as a moderate Republican, so the conservative base was not fired up at all. The Republican party was getting pounded by Democrats and by the media over George Bush, and McCain had to run basically as an independent -- he didn't even mention that he was a Republican, hardly, let alone that he was in the same party as Bush. So, for Romney to be LESS attractive to Republicans tells me there was something seriously wrong with him as the nominee.

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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Nov 09, 2012 3:21 pm

It's so much fun to laugh at you.
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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by Gallstones » Fri Nov 09, 2012 3:55 pm

The fire can go out for Obama; there is work to be done.
Let's stoke a fire for that.
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Re: Election Day, USA!

Post by amused » Fri Nov 09, 2012 4:01 pm

Obama is now free to make some bold moves to keep the fire burning. Gobama!

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