Bronco has won a can of worms

[mistermack]

I'm sure that winning feels better than losing.

But what a poison chalice the US economy is going to be. The best that Obama can hope for, is to deflect the blame onto the republicans in the house.

There will have to be huge tax rises, and huge spending cuts, if they can actually agree to do anything.
And that's going to drag the jobs figures back down, and stop companies investing. And the money markets won't like any of it. The rest of the world isn't looking much better, either.

Obama must be glad that he won, but sorry that he didn't lose.

[Tero]

Define huge. What is the % increase for a family making 100 000 when Bush tax cuts expire?

[mistermack]

Define huge. What is the % increase for a family making 100 000 when Bush tax cuts expire?

I dunno. I'm not an expert. I'm just going on what's in the media, about the fiscal cliff that the economy is sliding towards.
A paltry 700 billion? They could borrow to put it off. But borrowing doesn't remove it, it just delays it and makes it bigger.

[Tero]

Ah, the media. Full of hyperbole.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Define huge. What is the % increase for a family making 100 000 when Bush tax cuts expire?

I dunno. I'm not an expert. I'm just going on what's in the media, about the fiscal cliff that the economy is sliding towards.
A paltry 700 billion? They could borrow to put it off. But borrowing doesn't remove it, it just delays it and makes it bigger.

In other words, you're talking out your ass.

[mistermack]

Define huge. What is the % increase for a family making 100 000 when Bush tax cuts expire?

I dunno. I'm not an expert. I'm just going on what's in the media, about the fiscal cliff that the economy is sliding towards.
A paltry 700 billion? They could borrow to put it off. But borrowing doesn't remove it, it just delays it and makes it bigger.

In other words, you're talking out your ass.

You can never back your insults up though, can you? Like a parrot. You can say the words, but that's your limit.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Define huge. What is the % increase for a family making 100 000 when Bush tax cuts expire?

I dunno. I'm not an expert. I'm just going on what's in the media, about the fiscal cliff that the economy is sliding towards.
A paltry 700 billion? They could borrow to put it off. But borrowing doesn't remove it, it just delays it and makes it bigger.

In other words, you're talking out your ass.

You can never back your insults up though, can you? Like a parrot. You can say the words, but that's your limit.

You said yourself that you were just parroting a webpage. Damned with your own words.

[mistermack]

You said yourself that you were just parroting a webpage. Damned with your own words.

No I didn't say that. Tero asked me for specific information, which I never claimed that I had. It's your ass that is doing all the talking.

[Gerald McGrew]

There will have to be huge tax rises, and huge spending cuts, if they can actually agree to do anything.

No, there doesn't. Allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire on the wealthy is not a "huge tax raise", and as the economy continues to recover, eventually you can either allow all of them to expire, or restructure the tax code to accomplish essentially the same thing (revenue-wise).

Spending-wise, there will indeed be some battles. Liberals want to cut defense, and conservatives want to cut social programs. Social Security is a very easy fix (lifting the contributions cap would make it solvent for the foreseeable future). Health care OTOH is a tougher deal. IMO, eventually we're going to have to do what most other developed countries have done and adopt a single-payer national system. The data is unambiguous in that such systems lower costs significantly.

The wild card in the whole thing are the baby boomers. If most of the live to very old ages and require very expensive care, it's going to be an enormous drain on the country.

And that's going to drag the jobs figures back down, and stop companies investing. And the money markets won't like any of it. The rest of the world isn't looking much better, either.

Obama must be glad that he won, but sorry that he didn't lose.

I don't think so. The economy has been recovering, albeit slowly. But most objective economists figured that's what would happen, given the depth and magnitude of the Bush recession. I think Democrats were cringing at the possibility of Romney coming in and taking credit for a recovery that's going to happen anyways.

[mistermack]

There will have to be huge tax rises, and huge spending cuts, if they can actually agree to do anything.

No, there doesn't.....and...... I don't think so.

I was going on the wikipedia section on the fiscal cliff.
On the basis that it would be hard to find anything else that would at least try to be unbiased.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_cliff_debate

There are ways out of falling off a cliff. But it all involves money being taken out of the economy, either by taxes or cuts or both. There is certainly no third source. Borrowing more just means you pay back more.

All of which is highly likely to cause another recession.

[Gerald McGrew]

The "fiscal cliff" will only occur if no agreement is reached. I'm betting that there will be some sort of agreement, even if it's just kicking the can further down the road (which is what I expect).

[laklak]

I don't know, Gerald. Depends on how pissed off the GOP actually is over the election. It's a good (using the term "good" advisedly) time for them to be intransigent, the next election cycle is two years away. They know as well as anyone that the average American voter has the attention span of a marmot and will have completely forgotten about it by 2014. In the meantime, they can force the expiration of the "Bush" tax cuts, which will hit everybody, regardless of their current tax bracket. Then they can point at Obama and say "he took that money out of your pocket". If they can force an actual tax increase then so much the better. Realpolitik can be a nasty beast.

[mistermack]

The "fiscal cliff" will only occur if no agreement is reached. I'm betting that there will be some sort of agreement, even if it's just kicking the can further down the road (which is what I expect).

I'm sure that's right. But the options are, meet it by taxes, or cuts, or a combination of both, or agree to throw the borrowing rules out of the window.
Both taxes and cuts will directly take money out of the economy. Which will depress confidence, as well as remove cash. And more borrowing might well spook the market.

That's what I meant by a can of worms. There isn't a painless way out.
Having said that, is a bit of recession actually all that bad? It's not comfortable, but maybe it forces people to face facts.
Living on a growing bubble might feel better at the time, but it's shit when it bursts.

The US housing market is going to be toxic for years, just like it is in the UK.
Houses will be over-valued, with sellers who can't afford to sell, and buyers who can't afford to buy.
Which forces up rents.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

You said yourself that you were just parroting a webpage. Damned with your own words.

No I didn't say that. Tero asked me for specific information, which I never claimed that I had. It's your ass that is doing all the talking.

You can't backpedal out of looking like a turkey, they're physically incapable of walking backward.

[Gerald McGrew]

I don't know, Gerald. Depends on how pissed off the GOP actually is over the election. It's a good (using the term "good" advisedly) time for them to be intransigent, the next election cycle is two years away. They know as well as anyone that the average American voter has the attention span of a marmot and will have completely forgotten about it by 2014. In the meantime, they can force the expiration of the "Bush" tax cuts, which will hit everybody, regardless of their current tax bracket. Then they can point at Obama and say "he took that money out of your pocket". If they can force an actual tax increase then so much the better. Realpolitik can be a nasty beast.

Except most of them will be up for re-election and will face challengers from the Democrats as well as the tea party while having to explain why they raised taxes on everyone.

They realize that's a recipe for disaster.