Blind groper wrote:Wumbo
I have already admitted that the cure will take time. In the short term, you will be correct, and the law abiding citizens will no longer have hand guns, while many criminals will retain them. However, the number of murdered people will drop, in relation to a reduction in number of hand guns in circulation. For home defense, paranoid citizens can use rifles, which are actually better, since they are more accurate. The truth is, of course, that the number of ordinary citizens murdered in their homes by invading criminals is a very tiny number. Most murders are criminal killing criminal, or ordinary citizen killing someone he/she knows. The latter group will drop in number substantially, and very quickly, as ordinary citizens no longer have hand guns.
These numbers are not insignificant. In the USA, between 1500 and 2000 people are murdered by their spouse each year, and the dominant murder weapon is hand gun.
In the longer term, though, hand guns will become few and far between. There may be a few (but only a few) home made weapons around, but they are usually not as good, and prone to problems. Professionally made hand guns are more reliable, more accurate, and take more lives.
In time, even criminals will no longer have access to hand guns, and the murder rate will drop dramatically. But only if the government has the courage to do the right thing, which I seriously doubt. Politicians are known cowards, who will never do anything that may cost them votes.
I think you underestimate how long it would take for existing illegal arms to dry up. Even today, many of the guns used most commonly by criminals are from manufacturers that have been out of business since the late 90's. Add in whatever number of guns end up making their way underground in a post-ban US and you've got a lot of guns in criminal hands for a long time before anyone has to think about manufacturing new ones to meet demand. Oh, and on the topic of keeping rifles (and I assume shotguns) legal, another weapon commonly favored among criminals is a cut-down .22 caliber rifle that ends up being quite concealable. Or the perennial favorite sawed-off shotgun. Both of those will continue to exist without legal handguns. I think you'd be looking at 40-50 years before US criminals started to see gun supplies run short and had to start manufacturing their own. It's easy enough to manufacture one now, I'd bet with five decades of 3D printing advances it'll be child's play by that time to print out major components for a firearm. Say what you will about Americans but if there's one thing we've shown time and time again it's that we're exceptionally good at getting our hands on things the government tells us not to.