An independent Scotland?

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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by mistermack » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:02 pm

ronmcd wrote:Your very favourite Scot Alex Salmond has been heard to say a number of times that of course there would be negotiations ... but from within.
Yes of course. That is exactly what WILL happen.
That's what I've said all along.
But it will be negotiations from within the EU, while still within the UK.

In other words, Scotland will have to remain part of the UK, right up to the day it becomes an EU member in it's own right.
I've said that over and over. But Salmond still seems to have hoodwinked you that somehow, all this will be automatic.

It's perfectly obvious from that situation, that if becoming a full member is delayed, independence will have to be delayed. Otherwise, you cannot escape the fact that negotiations will be between an Independent Scotland and the EU from OUTSIDE the EU.
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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by Svartalf » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:47 pm

ronmcd wrote:Oooh, interesting.

Scottish independence: EU 'could not ask Scots to leave'
In written evidence submitted to Westminster's Foreign Affairs committee, which is examining the potential implications of Scottish independence, Mr Avery said arrangements for Scotland's EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence.

He added: "For practical and political reasons the idea of Scotland leaving the EU, and subsequently applying to join it, is not feasible.

"From the practical point of view, it would require complicated temporary arrangements for a new relationship between the EU (including the rest of the UK) and Scotland (outside the EU) including the possibility of controls at the frontier with England.

"Neither the EU (including the rest of the UK) nor Scotland would have an interest in creating such an anomaly.

"From the political point of view, Scotland has been in the EU for 40 years; and its people have acquired rights as European citizens.

"If they wish to remain in the EU, they could hardly be asked to leave and then reapply for membership in the same way as the people of a non-member country such as Turkey.

"The point can be illustrated by considering another example: if a break-up of Belgium were agreed between Wallonia and Flanders, it is inconceivable that other EU members would require 11 million people to leave the EU and then reapply for membership."

Some opponents of independence have argued that Scotland would be forced to reapply for EU membership in the event of a 'yes' vote in the referendum, and then face the prospect of having to join both the euro and the Schengen area of free movement.
'Better deal'

In his evidence, Mr Avery said: "Without embarking here on a discussion of the implications for Scotland of these policies, we may note that although new member states are required to accept them in principle, they do not become members of the eurozone or Schengen immediately on accession, and are not permitted to do so.

"Joining the euro or Schengen depends on a series of criteria that are examined in the years following accession."

Mr Avery is a senior member of St Antony's College in Oxford and a senior adviser at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

He worked for 40 years as a senior official in Whitehall and Brussels, and took part in successive negotiations for EU enlargement.
Mr Avery is a moron whi believes his wishes have a relation with reality, OR, the adjustment period between announcement of Scottish independence to be and the actual granting of same would be several years and cover the time necesary for Scotland to negociate its membership in EU from independence on.

His experience notwithstanding, there is only the scenario I outline to make it possibly true, and his experience doesn't apply, as this is completely unprecedented.
Last edited by Svartalf on Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by Svartalf » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:49 pm

ronmcd wrote:
mistermack wrote:There's nothing wrong with any of that.

What he DOESN'T say is that Scotland would automatically become a member.
Well, he is saying we - the people in Scotland - already ARE EU citizens, and that would not be taken away, no matter how much politicians opposed to independence claimed it would. Your very favourite Scot Alex Salmond has been heard to say a number of times that of course there would be negotiations ... but from within. Exactly what this opinion suggests. It is just one opinion mind, one of a number submitted to the foreign affairs committee. But it seems it holds some weight, potentially more than Hague, who has reportedly been passing UK legal advice to Spain to help with their little local difficulties even though it's against the UK ministerial code to reveal it to us :roll: , or Lord Jim Wallace: "No! No, no no. No". I'm paraphrasing.

Interesting there has been a softening on EU membership by Labour and Lib Dem politicians in recent days, saying "of course!" Scotland would be in EU. LOL. Now they have moved to scaremonger over the terms.
Actually, that WOULD be taken away, for any who lost their british citizenship... now negociate well, because there's no reason for the UK to maintain said citizenship for breakaway subjects.
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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by ronmcd » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:20 pm

mistermack wrote:
ronmcd wrote:Your very favourite Scot Alex Salmond has been heard to say a number of times that of course there would be negotiations ... but from within.
Yes of course. That is exactly what WILL happen.
That's what I've said all along.
But it will be negotiations from within the EU, while still within the UK.

In other words, Scotland will have to remain part of the UK, right up to the day it becomes an EU member in it's own right.
I've said that over and over. But Salmond still seems to have hoodwinked you that somehow, all this will be automatic.

It's perfectly obvious from that situation, that if becoming a full member is delayed, independence will have to be delayed. Otherwise, you cannot escape the fact that negotiations will be between an Independent Scotland and the EU from OUTSIDE the EU.
I dont disagree with the core of what you are saying. It applies to everthing though - EU, NATO, UN, all the international bureaucracy countries would wish to be part of, or not. What we are talking about here is what any country becoming and independent state would have to deal with, and Scotland is no different. The important point is not the process, but what is the final outcome people want, independence or not. If people want independence, then it will happen, if they want to be in EU, that will happen.

The problem is the fearmongering. As each scary story is addressed, another is produced. Tonight on Scottish tv we had a Scottish Labour MSP saying of course we will be in EU (!!) but then claimed we will have to be in Euro, sky might fall etc. And then she ranted angrily about Salmond for a while. It's quite depressing. Interesting contribution last night on Scottish tv from Henry McLeish, ex Labour First Minister, a voice of reason. Said Scottish Labour are blinded by their hatred of SNP.

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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by ronmcd » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:29 pm

Svartalf wrote: Mr Avery is a moron whi believes his wishes have a relation with reality, OR, the adjustment period between announcement of Scottish independence to be and the actual granting of same would be several years and cover the time necesary for Scotland to negociate its membership in EU from independence on.
Eh? Thats exactly what he is suggesting, "Mr Avery said arrangements for Scotland's EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence". If people vote yes in 2014, the period between that decision and actual independence will be measured in years, at the moment it is assumed to be 2 years, and the reason for that is to get everything sorted - that includes EU. So at the point Scotland actually became independent, the major issues and agreements would be in place. I've never heard any suggestion of anything else.

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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by ronmcd » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:33 pm

Svartalf wrote: Mr Avery is a moron whi believes his wishes have a relation with reality...
Just wanted to add, I have no idea who Avery is personally, but it appears he was asked for his opinions - along with other experts - by a Westminister committee, presumably because he has relevant experience. Moron, really? His opinion might be right or wrong, but hardly a moron.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... 43/m05.htm
Graham Avery is Senior Member of St. Antony’s College, Oxford University, Senior Adviser at the European Policy Centre, Brussels, and Honorary Director-General of the European Commission. He has given evidence on a number of occasions to Committees of the House of Commons and the House of Lords

In the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food in London (1965-72) he headed the unit responsible for negotiations for accession to the EC, and later (1976) served as Private Secretary to two Ministers. In the European Commission in Brussels (1973-2006) he worked in agricultural policy, foreign affairs, and the cabinets of the President and other Commissioners, and took part in successive negotiations that enlarged the EU to 27 members. His last post was as Director for Strategy, Coordination and Analysis in the Directorate General for External Relations

He has been Fellow at the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, Fellow at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies of the European University Institute, Florence,

Visiting Professor at the College of Europe, and Secretary General of the Trans European Policy Studies Association

In the Queen’s New Year Honours 2012 he was appointed Companion of the Order of St. Michael and St. George (CMG) for services to European affairs.

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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by klr » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:37 pm

ronmcd wrote:
Svartalf wrote: Mr Avery is a moron whi believes his wishes have a relation with reality, OR, the adjustment period between announcement of Scottish independence to be and the actual granting of same would be several years and cover the time necesary for Scotland to negociate its membership in EU from independence on.
Eh? Thats exactly what he is suggesting, "Mr Avery said arrangements for Scotland's EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence". If people vote yes in 2014, the period between that decision and actual independence will be measured in years, at the moment it is assumed to be 2 years, and the reason for that is to get everything sorted - that includes EU. So at the point Scotland actually became independent, the major issues and agreements would be in place. I've never heard any suggestion of anything else.
Yes ... but. The Scottish people are going to have to vote on independence at a time when - very likely - some major details of EU membership are not going to be finalised. Uncertainty tends to make people conservative* in situations like this.


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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by Svartalf » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:52 pm

ronmcd wrote:
Svartalf wrote: Mr Avery is a moron whi believes his wishes have a relation with reality, OR, the adjustment period between announcement of Scottish independence to be and the actual granting of same would be several years and cover the time necesary for Scotland to negociate its membership in EU from independence on.
Eh? Thats exactly what he is suggesting, "Mr Avery said arrangements for Scotland's EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence". If people vote yes in 2014, the period between that decision and actual independence will be measured in years, at the moment it is assumed to be 2 years, and the reason for that is to get everything sorted - that includes EU. So at the point Scotland actually became independent, the major issues and agreements would be in place. I've never heard any suggestion of anything else.
I may be tired, I was under the impression he was suggesting that Scotland not being an automatic member upon independence, without lengthy intermediate period before independence, would create such paradoxes that it was all but impossible.
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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by ronmcd » Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:05 am

klr wrote:
ronmcd wrote:
Svartalf wrote: Mr Avery is a moron whi believes his wishes have a relation with reality, OR, the adjustment period between announcement of Scottish independence to be and the actual granting of same would be several years and cover the time necesary for Scotland to negociate its membership in EU from independence on.
Eh? Thats exactly what he is suggesting, "Mr Avery said arrangements for Scotland's EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence". If people vote yes in 2014, the period between that decision and actual independence will be measured in years, at the moment it is assumed to be 2 years, and the reason for that is to get everything sorted - that includes EU. So at the point Scotland actually became independent, the major issues and agreements would be in place. I've never heard any suggestion of anything else.
Yes ... but. The Scottish people are going to have to vote on independence at a time when - very likely - some major details of EU membership are not going to be finalised. Uncertainty tends to make people conservative* in situations like this.


*with a small 'c' of course, not a capital one ... :hehe:
True. But Scotland will have absolute certainty & clarity over the consequences of a no vote ... wont it? I'm sure no UK political parties will be looking to leave EU, at the same time as they berate SNP for not being able to guarantee Scotland's continuing membership ... ;)

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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by ronmcd » Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:19 am

Svartalf wrote:
ronmcd wrote:
Svartalf wrote: Mr Avery is a moron whi believes his wishes have a relation with reality, OR, the adjustment period between announcement of Scottish independence to be and the actual granting of same would be several years and cover the time necesary for Scotland to negociate its membership in EU from independence on.
Eh? Thats exactly what he is suggesting, "Mr Avery said arrangements for Scotland's EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence". If people vote yes in 2014, the period between that decision and actual independence will be measured in years, at the moment it is assumed to be 2 years, and the reason for that is to get everything sorted - that includes EU. So at the point Scotland actually became independent, the major issues and agreements would be in place. I've never heard any suggestion of anything else.
I may be tired, I was under the impression he was suggesting that Scotland not being an automatic member upon independence, without lengthy intermediate period before independence, would create such paradoxes that it was all but impossible.
I don't think so, he starts his submission to the committee with a summary of his main points:
2. In the debate on Scottish independence it is natural that opponents tend to exaggerate the difficulties of EU membership, while proponents tend to minimise them. This note tries to address the subject as objectively as possible. In summary it argues that:

· Arrangements for Scotland’s EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence

· Scotland’s 5 million people, having been members of the EU for 40 years; have acquired rights as European citizens

· For practical and political reasons they could not be asked to leave the EU and apply for readmission

· Negotiations on the terms of membership would take place in the period between the referendum and the planned date of independence

· The EU would adopt a simplified procedure for the negotiations, not the traditional procedure followed for the accession of non-member countries
Later on he expands on the issue of timing:
7. At this point we need to consider the timing and procedure for such Treaty changes. Scotland’s EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with Scottish independence. For practical and political reasons the idea of Scotland leaving the EU, and subsequently applying to join it, is not feasible.
So as the summary suggests, he doesn't think it is feasible that Scotland would leave and reapply, instead Scotland would need the negotiations to be done in the period between the referendum and actual independence taking place. The SNP say that would be between 2014 and the next scheduled Scottish election in 2016, but no doubt that 2016 could be pushed back if required.

I'm pretty sure his submission supports the "YES" campaigns opinions, because the SNP and YES campaign have been awfully excited about this document today :D but of course there are also opposing views out there, and some other submissions to the same committee are apparently less convinced.

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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by mistermack » Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:23 am

Of course, what Salmond STILL hasn't spelled out, is that these negotiations have to end in an EU vote.
And I believe that vote would have to be unanimous.

So in effect, Scottish Independence couldn't go ahead, practically, until that unanimous vote was achieved.
The separatists want everybody to believe that that is just a given, nothing can go wrong there.

That's not true. It's heavily odds-on that nothing will go wrong. That's not the same thing though.
Salmond is trying to exude an air of certainty, when nothing is certain.
It's very very likely things will happen smoothly. That's all an honest person could say.
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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by Santa_Claus » Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:34 am

In regard to uncertainty - next week Scotland could get invaded by Aliens. Or the English.

But neither will probably happen. but they could do. Scotland not being an EU is as likely as either. Simply another EOTW scare story.

2 Years post referendum to sort out the details for independence seems fair enuf (with the back stop of being able to extend that period - plus some practical details won't need to be 100% sorted / will intentionally be left to evolve over time where the English and Scottish currently work together, and will want to continue to do so in the future).

IMO no reason why Scotland and England / the rump UK could not enter into a formal agreement for..........a British Union! (if somethings are genuinely in the best interests of all to do together, then no reason why not capture them all within one treaty).
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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by mistermack » Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:53 am

Santa_Claus wrote:IMO no reason why Scotland and England / the rump UK could not enter into a formal agreement for..........a British Union! (if somethings are genuinely in the best interests of all to do together, then no reason why not capture them all within one treaty).
Good Lord, I think you are on to something there ! That makes an awful lot of sense !
The Queen could be the nominal head. And of course, there would have to be some body to make decisions.

What could we call such a union?
The united, uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuummmmmmm,,,,,,,

Queendom !!!

That's it !
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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by ronmcd » Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:46 pm

mistermack wrote: It's very very likely things will happen smoothly. That's all an honest person could say.
Grand, some optimism! I agree. Can you be as confident about UK in EU as you are about Scotland? Can you be as confident about UK growth in the next 5 years as you are about Scotland in EU? I suspect not. Odd.

Rather than the optimism we both share, we could instead do what the other Scottish political parties are doing:
"Can the First Minister provide an absolute guarantee that the sky will NOT fall in an independent Scotland? If not, how can we possibly decide? What is he hiding!" :ask:
Give me a break.

...

First Ministers questions has just ended. The Lib Dem leader just asked this, and I'm not joking (paraphrasing):
"why has FM not secured agreements with every of the 27 members of EU to guarantee Scottish entry?" :funny:

I'm struggling to see the difference between my satirical question and his actual question ...

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Re: An independent Scotland?

Post by Santa_Claus » Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:57 pm

ronmcd wrote: First Ministers questions has just ended. The Lib Dem leader just asked this, and I'm not joking (paraphrasing):
"why has FM not secured agreements with every of the 27 members of EU to guarantee Scottish entry?" :funny:

I'm struggling to see the difference between my satirical question and his actual question ...
I don't know whether to laugh or cry :dunno:

I would have responded with "No - but that is because I am not an idiot........but I can understand that your approach would have differred" :hehe:
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