An independent Scotland?

[klr]

...
The primary reason for this has been explained very well by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his books "Fooled by Randomness" and "Black Swan". The issue is a fundamental failure to understand the nature of probability and risk. This problem is at the heart of the next round of the Basel Regulations.
...

I have Black Swan, and some day I may muster up sufficient patience and forbearance to actually read it. NNT seems preoccupied with showing off his intellectual brilliance to the reader.

[Audley Strange]

...
The primary reason for this has been explained very well by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his books "Fooled by Randomness" and "Black Swan". The issue is a fundamental failure to understand the nature of probability and risk. This problem is at the heart of the next round of the Basel Regulations.
...

I have Black Swan, and some day I may muster up sufficient patience and forbearance to actually read it. NNT seems preoccupied with showing off his intellectual brilliance to the reader.

I agree, but try and bear with it, it's very interesting.

[klr]

...
The primary reason for this has been explained very well by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his books "Fooled by Randomness" and "Black Swan". The issue is a fundamental failure to understand the nature of probability and risk. This problem is at the heart of the next round of the Basel Regulations.
...

I have Black Swan, and some day I may muster up sufficient patience and forbearance to actually read it. NNT seems preoccupied with showing off his intellectual brilliance to the reader.

I agree, but try and bear with it, it's very interesting.

I certainly will, but he's currently near the back of a very long queue.

[Cormac]

...
The primary reason for this has been explained very well by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his books "Fooled by Randomness" and "Black Swan". The issue is a fundamental failure to understand the nature of probability and risk. This problem is at the heart of the next round of the Basel Regulations.
...

I have Black Swan, and some day I may muster up sufficient patience and forbearance to actually read it. NNT seems preoccupied with showing off his intellectual brilliance to the reader.

Perhaps, but bear in mind that his primary audience is supposed to be highly proficient in the area.

The books are standard reading for all in the "field", but nothing at all has changed. Basel 3 goes ahead with the fundamental flaws in place.

[Rum]

I've just decided they can have it back. Just returned from a drive around Annan and other bits of SW Scotland and surrounds in the rain.

[John_fi_Skye]

I've just decided they can have it back. Just returned from a drive around Annan and other bits of SW Scotland and surrounds in the rain.

I never thought Annan was the most picturesque - even in the sunshine!

But then, I'm from Dumfries.

[Rum]

..which is so much better of course in every way.

[Pensioner]

I've just decided they can have it back. Just returned from a drive around Annan and other bits of SW Scotland and surrounds in the rain.

I never thought Annan was the most picturesque - even in the sunshine!

But then, I'm from Dumfries.

Love that part of Scotland, my daughter in law was born in kirkcudbright. I love the place.

[mistermack]

I've just decided they can have it back. Just returned from a drive around Annan and other bits of SW Scotland and surrounds in the rain.

I never thought Annan was the most picturesque - even in the sunshine!

But then, I'm from Dumfries.

Annan is good for birdwatching, ennit?

[Rum]

I've just decided they can have it back. Just returned from a drive around Annan and other bits of SW Scotland and surrounds in the rain.

I never thought Annan was the most picturesque - even in the sunshine!

But then, I'm from Dumfries.

Annan is good for birdwatching, ennit?

The coast around there certainly is, as is the Solway Firth generally.

[ronmcd]

Oooh, interesting.

Scottish independence: EU 'could not ask Scots to leave'

In written evidence submitted to Westminster's Foreign Affairs committee, which is examining the potential implications of Scottish independence, Mr Avery said arrangements for Scotland's EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence.

He added: "For practical and political reasons the idea of Scotland leaving the EU, and subsequently applying to join it, is not feasible.

"From the practical point of view, it would require complicated temporary arrangements for a new relationship between the EU (including the rest of the UK) and Scotland (outside the EU) including the possibility of controls at the frontier with England.

"Neither the EU (including the rest of the UK) nor Scotland would have an interest in creating such an anomaly.

"From the political point of view, Scotland has been in the EU for 40 years; and its people have acquired rights as European citizens.

"If they wish to remain in the EU, they could hardly be asked to leave and then reapply for membership in the same way as the people of a non-member country such as Turkey.

"The point can be illustrated by considering another example: if a break-up of Belgium were agreed between Wallonia and Flanders, it is inconceivable that other EU members would require 11 million people to leave the EU and then reapply for membership."

Some opponents of independence have argued that Scotland would be forced to reapply for EU membership in the event of a 'yes' vote in the referendum, and then face the prospect of having to join both the euro and the Schengen area of free movement.
'Better deal'

In his evidence, Mr Avery said: "Without embarking here on a discussion of the implications for Scotland of these policies, we may note that although new member states are required to accept them in principle, they do not become members of the eurozone or Schengen immediately on accession, and are not permitted to do so.

"Joining the euro or Schengen depends on a series of criteria that are examined in the years following accession."

Mr Avery is a senior member of St Antony's College in Oxford and a senior adviser at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

He worked for 40 years as a senior official in Whitehall and Brussels, and took part in successive negotiations for EU enlargement.

[Santa_Claus]

Yeah, "for practical and political reasons".

IMO very much in Englands own interests to not rock the boat on their own EU membership (can you imagine an in or out EU referendum! - economic suicide to even risk a bye bye vote!.........no matter that a wet dream for the little Englanders)..........in practice I suspect the EU would need some discussions with Scotland pre-independence, even if only to make sure everyone was on the same page. and likely Scotland would want own signing in ceremony (all politicos like a nice day out!).

As independence does not happen 5 minutes after a yes vote - any idea what the intended timescale for that is post referendum? and how it will be formally declared? (Salmond waiving a haggis from Hadrians wall? or burning a Pork Pie inside a Whicker man?)

[mistermack]

There's nothing wrong with any of that.

What he DOESN'T say is that Scotland would automatically become a member.
He says that it's inconcievable that member states would not agree to their membership.
Which means that he acknowledges that there would have to be a vote. And he can't conceive of that vote not being unanimous.
I would agree, but not put it so strongly. I would say it's unlikely. But I CAN conceive of someone voting no.
They probably wouldn't. But that's not certain.

And of course he's right, membership and splitting from the UK should happen on the same day. That's just stating the obvious. But that might take a long time, and a lot of arm twisting in Europe.

[ronmcd]

Yeah, "for practical and political reasons".

IMO very much in Englands own interests to not rock the boat on their own EU membership (can you imagine an in or out EU referendum! - economic suicide to even risk a bye bye vote!.........no matter that a wet dream for the little Englanders)..........in practice I suspect the EU would need some discussions with Scotland pre-independence, even if only to make sure everyone was on the same page. and likely Scotland would want own signing in ceremony (all politicos like a nice day out!).

As independence does not happen 5 minutes after a yes vote - any idea what the intended timescale for that is post referendum? and how it will be formally declared? (Salmond waiving a haggis from Hadrians wall? or burning a Pork Pie inside a Whicker man?)

I think the SNP say it would be in line with the next scheduled Holyrood elections, 2016. So 2 years where the details ironed out, I suppose that could be extended if necessary?

[ronmcd]

There's nothing wrong with any of that.

What he DOESN'T say is that Scotland would automatically become a member.

Well, he is saying we - the people in Scotland - already ARE EU citizens, and that would not be taken away, no matter how much politicians opposed to independence claimed it would. Your very favourite Scot Alex Salmond has been heard to say a number of times that of course there would be negotiations ... but from within. Exactly what this opinion suggests. It is just one opinion mind, one of a number submitted to the foreign affairs committee. But it seems it holds some weight, potentially more than Hague, who has reportedly been passing UK legal advice to Spain to help with their little local difficulties even though it's against the UK ministerial code to reveal it to us , or Lord Jim Wallace: "No! No, no no. No". I'm paraphrasing.

Interesting there has been a softening on EU membership by Labour and Lib Dem politicians in recent days, saying "of course!" Scotland would be in EU. LOL. Now they have moved to scaremonger over the terms.