An independent Scotland?

[klr]

Just a point about the outcome of the vote.

If the vote is no, I said before that it should be declared that there will be no new vote for 20 years.
I actually think that would be a good thing, because otherwise, Scotland could find that international investment might dry up, if a new independance vote was always hanging in the air as a possibility.

Big companies want certainty, about EU membership, about political stability and about currency.
If the vote is not regarded as final, for a good period, people will just go elsewhere.

Every time there's a referendum here in Ireland, there's always hand-waving before the vote by those opposed to it (and afterwards if it's defeated) that a "no" vote is final, and that the question can't "ever" be put again. Which is obviously nonsense. Nothing would ever get done that way.

In practice, the breathing space between asking the same or similar question again will vary on a case-by-case basis. Divorce was firmly rejected by the Irish voters in 1986, by 64% to 36%. Less than a decade later, a second referendum on divorce was passed - barely, but it was still a huge swing in social views in only a few years. A couple of referendums on EU treaties were initially rejected, and then passed a second time around (surprise!), usually within 18 months.

I don't think there should be any such moratorium attached to a "no" vote, and it would be undemocratic any way IMHO. It might also raise the stakes so high that some people really would get worked up about the vote.

If it's a "no", let the politicians and the people weigh up for themselves when it might next be a good time to raise the question again, and what lessons should be learned from the first vote.

[ronmcd]

Just a point about the outcome of the vote.

If the vote is no, I said before that it should be declared that there will be no new vote for 20 years.
I actually think that would be a good thing, because otherwise, Scotland could find that international investment might dry up, if a new independance vote was always hanging in the air as a possibility.

Big companies want certainty, about EU membership, about political stability and about currency.
If the vote is not regarded as final, for a good period, people will just go elsewhere.

The irony is no politician in Westminister can tell any company or corporation what the government policies will be in 5 years time, or even 2 or 3. And on EU ... is westminister really providing any more or less certainty than the current discussions in Scotland? Tory ministers - not just back benchers - want out.

And on taxation, what was the first decision Osbourne made in 2010? A huge tax grab on north sea oil companies, which directly led to slashing in exploration and expenditure the next year. Certainty? What certainty? And just for extra lols, 2010 was a recent high point for income to the UK govt from north sea oil, when that income crashed in part due to Osbourne's panic tax grab, it was used as an argument against independence! Look, we told you the oil was running out!

*sigh*

Oh, and even during this time of supposed uncertainty, Scotland is the most attractive area of UK outside of london for investment at the moment. I dont understand it ..... what ARE these silly companies thinking of!

[ronmcd]

Just a point about the outcome of the vote.

If the vote is no, I said before that it should be declared that there will be no new vote for 20 years.

There will be a new referendum if a party includes it in it's manifesto and the people vote for them. Nothing else really matters. Personally, I suspect if people vote no, the SNP will remove a new referendum from their next Holyrood manifesto, as that policy had effectively just been rejected and they would hardly want to have another one immediately. They would want to try and continue being a good government, and get re-elected on that basis.

I dont think a new referendum would be a problem, or on the cards.

[hadespussercats]

Could a moderator please put this post back into this thread, it was pertinent, not part of a derail. If you want you can edit out the first line.

http://rationalia.com/forum/viewtopic.p ... 2#p1301192

Did.

[mistermack]

Oh, and even during this time of supposed uncertainty, Scotland is the most attractive area of UK outside of london for investment at the moment. I dont understand it ..... what ARE these silly companies thinking of!

Your posts seem to be copied and pasted from the SNP website, I don't see any link to any of your claims.
Why don't you just stick up a big "Vote SNP" poster and be done with it?

Here's a quote from Ernst and Young about Scotland projects :
And this is from a page SELLING Scotland :

According to the EIM for 2011, the recorded number of
investment projects coming into Scotland from outside the UK
fell by 26%, declining to 51 FDI projects from 69 in 2010. This
compares with an overall decline of only 7% in projects coming
into the UK as a whole. Only five of the years since 1997 have
seen Scotland attract a lower number of projects.
Graph 1:!

[Cormac]

Oh, and even during this time of supposed uncertainty, Scotland is the most attractive area of UK outside of london for investment at the moment. I dont understand it ..... what ARE these silly companies thinking of!

Your posts seem to be copied and pasted from the SNP website, I don't see any link to any of your claims.
Why don't you just stick up a big "Vote SNP" poster and be done with it?

Here's a quote from Ernst and Young about Scotland projects :
And this is from a page SELLING Scotland :

According to the EIM for 2011, the recorded number of
investment projects coming into Scotland from outside the UK
fell by 26%, declining to 51 FDI projects from 69 in 2010. This
compares with an overall decline of only 7% in projects coming
into the UK as a whole. Only five of the years since 1997 have
seen Scotland attract a lower number of projects.
Graph 1:!

These are not necessarily contradictory positions.

[Svartalf]

Speling is importent.

Well, that was unportentous

[Rum]

An interesting article about the diaspora, particularly the 800,000 living in other parts of the UK. I'm not sure what the logic of them not being able to vote while English people living in Scotland might be? It would suggest a regionalist rather than nationalist mindset perhaps.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20048521

[klr]

An interesting article about the diaspora, particularly the 800,000 living in other parts of the UK. I'm not sure what the logic of them not being able to vote while English people living in Scotland might be? It would suggest a regionalist rather than nationalist mindset perhaps.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20048521

Well, I think if you've been resident in Scotland for a number of years, then you should certainly have a vote, regardless of nationality or place of birth. But as to those living in the rest of the UK, it's less clear. Oddly enough, my Scottish co-worker here in Ireland has a vote, even though he hasn't lived in Scotland since the mid 1990's. Go figure.

[ronmcd]

Oh, and even during this time of supposed uncertainty, Scotland is the most attractive area of UK outside of london for investment at the moment. I dont understand it ..... what ARE these silly companies thinking of!

Your posts seem to be copied and pasted from the SNP website, I don't see any link to any of your claims.
Why don't you just stick up a big "Vote SNP" poster and be done with it?

Ah, excellent, another form of belittling a different opinion than your own: imply I'm parroting a PARTY argument. And you are parroting .... what? The considered neutral non-political position? Pathetic. For the record, i am not a member of any party, I voted labour until they lost the plot, and I was open to additional powers for Holyrood, but currently see a yes vote as the likely best route for Scotland. Note - a yes vote is not about SNP.

Here is one of the articles I read:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/fac ... stors/9080

The background

Downing Street says that global corporates are sounding the alarm over the prospect of a referendum on Scottish Independence.

Businesses don’t like the uncertainty surrounding Scotland’s place in the Union, says Number 10, and have told the PM that foreign investment is under threat.

Well, that’s not the view from up north says Alex Salmond in The Independent. Some of the world’s biggest companies are setting up shop in Scotland, he argues, and they are not threatened by the prospect of a referendum, or indeed an independent Scotland.

FactCheck asks some of the companies investing in Scotland if Mr Salmond is right, and tots up the official stats on the foreign money coming in.

The analysis

It may not come as a surprise that London boasted the most foreign direct investment (FDI) projects across the whole of Europe in 2010 – the only entire countries to beat the London region were France, Germany and Russia in 2010, according to Ernst and Young.

But what might raise a few eyebrows is E&Y’s discovery that in 2010, the leading location within the UK when it comes to spinning jobs out of FDI – was Scotland.

[ronmcd]

Here's a quote from Ernst and Young about Scotland projects :
And this is from a page SELLING Scotland :

According to the EIM for 2011, the recorded number of
investment projects coming into Scotland from outside the UK
fell by 26%, declining to 51 FDI projects from 69 in 2010. This
compares with an overall decline of only 7% in projects coming
into the UK as a whole. Only five of the years since 1997 have
seen Scotland attract a lower number of projects.
Graph 1:!

I wonder why you didnt include the link to the document itself? I went and looked for it after your post, and found it's actually incredibly positive. Including the immediate paragraphs AFTER the ONE you quoted without a link:

Given the inherent volatility of annual project numbers, a decline
of 26% is not unusual. Secondly, the fall in 2011 was from a
relatively high level in 2010, which saw Scotland’s equal second
strongest performance (alongside 2007) in any year since
1997. Furthermore, the decline in projects in Scotland in 2011
was actually less severe than that seen in every region of England
except four: London and the South East, where projects rose;
and the West Midlands and the East of England, which suffered
smaller declines.

Even more positively, the reduced number of projects coming
into Scotland in 2011 created more jobs on aggregate than in
previous years, and more than in any other UK region. The 47%
increase in job creation in Scotland between 2010 and 2011
represented the biggest annual boost to Scottish employment
from FDI since 2000, and was only the fifth time since 1997 that
Scotland’s FDI-driven job creation has broken the 5,000 barrier.
This surge in job creation saw Scotland’s share of FDI employment
rise for the second successive year, to reach its highest level since
the EIM’s records began in 1997.

As a result, Scotland topped the UK league in terms of job
creation from FDI in 2011 for the second year running, with
over 2,000 more jobs created than the next-highest region. The
abolition of the RDAs in the English regions and Wales has left
Scotland as the only area of the UK with an equivalent to the
RDAs, in the form of Scottish Enterprise, Highlands and Islands
Enterprise and SDI. It seems that SDI’s receptive approach to
grant funding, together with the Scottish Government’s readiness
to intervene to encourage FDI, are yielding results in terms of
projects and jobs.

[ronmcd]

An interesting article about the diaspora, particularly the 800,000 living in other parts of the UK. I'm not sure what the logic of them not being able to vote while English people living in Scotland might be? It would suggest a regionalist rather than nationalist mindset perhaps.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20048521

Well, I think if you've been resident in Scotland for a number of years, then you should certainly have a vote, regardless of nationality or place of birth. But as to those living in the rest of the UK, it's less clear. Oddly enough, my Scottish co-worker here in Ireland has a vote, even though he hasn't lived in Scotland since the mid 1990's. Go figure.

Well legally the Scottish Parliament doesn't have access to or control over the UK election franchise. The referendum was a policy ONLY of parties in the Scottish Parliament, so it will be the same franchise the Scottish Parliament uses. The Scottish Parliament elections, and the referendum to create the Scottish Parliament a decade ago all use the same franchise, ie EU local government franchise. There is no reason to change that.

But on a fairness level, why should my brother in England who is registered to vote there and pays taxes in England, get to vote here rather than people living and paying taxes here, even if they are EU citizens, or from England Wales or NI.

edit - I'm guessing the only reason your co-worker can vote is he is on the electoral register, with a property in Scotland.

[ronmcd]

Can I just point out I already quoted the same information earlier in this thread. So I utterly refute this suggestion I am just quoting SNP.

That's an easy one I can clear up now.
England won't be paying the subsidy to Scotland. And that saving goes on for ever.

But Scotland is not subsidised by England.

The biggest beneficiaries are Northern Ireland, Wales and the North East, which receive more than a fifth of their income as subsidies from the taxpayer.

Northern Ireland pays tax worth just 27.7 per cent of GDP generated by Northern Ireland. This compares to London, which pays tax equivalent to 45.2 per cent of GDP created in the capital.

Additionally, the analysis showed that regions where the level of tax paid was low as a proportion of GDP also used a higher proportion of GDP for state spending.

For some taxes, the regional differences are huge. The bulk of Stamp Duty Land Tax is paid in London and the South East. The 50p income tax rate is also largely a London and South East tax.

Overall, London provides a net subsidy of 20.3 per cent of GDP. Northern Ireland receives a net subsidy of 29.4 per cent, while Wales receives a subsidy of 26.0 per cent and the North East 22.2 per cent.

The figures will be relevent to the ongoing discussion of independence for Scotland. Scotland receives no net subsidy. Using and established Aberdeen University split of the oil and gas revenues - which gives Scotland 83 per cent - the oil and gas revenues exactly cancel out the fiscal transfers from the non oil sector.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news ... ds-newsxml

The Ernst and Young report echoes the findings on Channel 4’s renowned factcheck analysis which confirms that outside London Scotland is the leading destination in the UK for Foreign Investment creating more high value jobs in 2010 than were created through foreign investment in London and that foreign investment in Scotland has continued to rise at a time when it is flatlining in other parts of the UK.

http://politicshome.com/uk/article/5621 ... ering.html

[klr]

An interesting article about the diaspora, particularly the 800,000 living in other parts of the UK. I'm not sure what the logic of them not being able to vote while English people living in Scotland might be? It would suggest a regionalist rather than nationalist mindset perhaps.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20048521

Well, I think if you've been resident in Scotland for a number of years, then you should certainly have a vote, regardless of nationality or place of birth. But as to those living in the rest of the UK, it's less clear. Oddly enough, my Scottish co-worker here in Ireland has a vote, even though he hasn't lived in Scotland since the mid 1990's. Go figure.

Well legally the Scottish Parliament doesn't have access to or control over the UK election franchise. The referendum was a policy ONLY of parties in the Scottish Parliament, so it will be the same franchise the Scottish Parliament uses. The Scottish Parliament elections, and the referendum to create the Scottish Parliament a decade ago all use the same franchise, ie EU local government franchise. There is no reason to change that.

But on a fairness level, why should my brother in England who is registered to vote there and pays taxes in England, get to vote here rather than people living and paying taxes here, even if they are EU citizens, or from England Wales or NI.

edit - I'm guessing the only reason your co-worker can vote is he is on the electoral register, with a property in Scotland.

I think he sold his family property after his parents died, but maybe I'm wrong. I'll ask him how he still has a vote, but I can't do that until Tuesday. I knew this bank holiday weekend had to have a downside somewhere.

I also wonder if he can vote in Irish elections and referendums.

[Santa_Claus]

The sectarian violence thing is just another EOTW scare story.......even though sectarianism IS a bigger issue in Scotland than the rest of the UK (NI excepting!). I don't see it being a major problem pre-referendum. Post referendum it is either a problem for the UK or an Independent Scotland and will be dealt with accordingly (and likely in much the same way). a Non issue.

The big uncertainty for business is not for Scotland. but for England! - Likely that sooner or later Scotland will be a real competitor for England with the advantage of a lower cost base (no nuclear weapons and no imperial delusions to pay for) and nimbler.....a bit of tweaking of the tax regime and on regulations would make a big difference to many companies, especially manufacturing if the Scottish Govt simply said that it was important to us (not simply for any immediate tax take - but for the overall social benefit to Scotland which in the long run does also have a cash benefit, even though not easily quantifiable.......strange that folks will support subsidies (direct and indirect through taxation) for green industries but not for folks simply making dull stuff and employing people).........England not had a competitor on it's door step before.