2012 US Presidential Debate 1 - October 3, 2012

[Coito ergo sum]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19845234

Down to 7.8% from 8.1 at present.

Now THAT is a fucking joke.

Manipulated numbers through the labor secretary? They'll fucking stop at nothing...

Jack Welch....


Numbers to be revised in November...lol

"It's a little confusing, to be honest with you. The number of jobs created wasn't that high but the unemployment rate came down and the participation rate went up a little bit, so it's confusing..." Ron Florance, managing director for investment strategy for Wells Fargo Private Bank.

114,000 jobs in the last month - and then they revise up the numbers in two previous months by 86,000? One, 200,000 doesn't seem like enough, just at first blush, to reduce the Unemployment rate to 7.8% from 8.1% without a huge drop in labor participation. But, apparently there has been an increase in labor participation (and that would tend to increase the unemployment rate).

Can't wait to see the analysis of this.

[FBM]

Attacking the messenger, rather than the message.

[Tero]

I think there may be a deeper parallel here. Bush in 1992 campaigned like he wanted to lose. It really seemed like he was tired of the presidency, and maybe he realized deep down that he wasn't doing a very good job and didn't really want to continue to do that.

Obama's handlers have kept his campaign sufficiently detached from reality to avoid campaigning to lose, but now it looks like that perhaps involved keeping Obama himself out of the loop. After all, they don't care whether he does a good job for the country, as long as he stays in power and they benefit from it. Obama himself, though, might feel like Bush did: he does care about Americans, and it looks from the debate like he realizes deep down that he's letting America down.

This is bullshit. Congress let America down.

The fact that US reacted to Obamacare etc in 2010 should not have been a surprise.

With a cooperative congress we could have European Socialism, Swiss flavor, tomorrow.

All we need to do is convince Montana that Obama will not take the cowboys' guns away.

[Coito ergo sum]

Attacking the messenger, rather than the message.

I just don't get, yet, how the numbers work out. They seem incredible.

[FBM]

Attacking the messenger, rather than the message.

I just don't get, yet, how the numbers work out. They seem incredible.

Do you have the numbers? No? Then how is it incredible? Just because you want more bad news for Obama?

The latest official data showed that the construction sector added 5,000 jobs last month, while the number of people working in government jobs rose by 10,000.

However, the biggest gain was record in the healthcare sector, which added 44,000 jobs in September.

The Labor Department also used the release of the September data to revise up how many new jobs were created in both July and August. It said that 86,000 more jobs than first calculated were added across the two months.

[Ian]

Attacking the messenger, rather than the message.

I just don't get, yet, how the numbers work out. They seem incredible.

I doubt you'd be complaining if they percentage went up. Must be a conspiracy within the administration.

EDIT: It's also telling that you're pissed about hearing good economic news! Partisanship first, well-being of Americans second...

[Coito ergo sum]

Attacking the messenger, rather than the message.

I just don't get, yet, how the numbers work out. They seem incredible.

Do you have the numbers? No? Then how is it incredible? Just because you want more bad news for Obama?

I do. 114,000 jobs created in September, and a revision up, for some reason, of 86,000 jobs from previous months, totally 200,000 jobs created. However, the labor force participation rate, from what I read, increased (which raises the unemployment rate because more people are looking for work and are in the job market). So, just based on that, it seems odd that the unemployment rate would drop from 8.1% to 7.8% given the total number of workers involved.

We've had months in the past where around or near 100,000 jobs have been created, and the labor force participation rate has also gone down, and the change hasn't been that much.

The latest official data showed that the construction sector added 5,000 jobs last month, while the number of people working in government jobs rose by 10,000.

However, the biggest gain was record in the healthcare sector, which added 44,000 jobs in September.

The Labor Department also used the release of the September data to revise up how many new jobs were created in both July and August. It said that 86,000 more jobs than first calculated were added across the two months.

Exactly. Those numbers at first blush are too small, with an increase in labor participation, to drop 3 points. I am very interested in the analysis. It doesn't pass the initial smell test, and the timing is curious.

[Ian]

The timing is not curious at all. Jobs numbers are reported the first friday after the end of the month. It's been that way for ages.

Why don't you look into how they got that data before crying conspiracy.

[Coito ergo sum]

Attacking the messenger, rather than the message.

I just don't get, yet, how the numbers work out. They seem incredible.

I doubt you'd be complaining if they percentage went up. Must be a conspiracy within the administration.

Not "must be," but these numbers don't sound credible. I wouldn't be complaining if the percentage went up because when the labor participation rate goes up, as the article says it did, then it's hard for unemployment rates to go down. Surely you agree with that. If they announced a big drop in the labor participation rate, it would make more sense.

[

EDIT: It's also telling that you're pissed about hearing good economic news! Partisanship first, well-being of Americans second...

No, I'm glad for good economic news. I just won't swallow the numbers, released 1 month before the election, with anemic job growth of 114,000 for September and an INCREASE in labor participation rate (which puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate) can drop the unemployment rate 3 points. Even with the 86,000 upward "revision" from previous months, the numbers of unemployed are large enough for me to really want to see the details and hear the analysis.

tell me if this wasn't one month before the election in 2008 and this happened, you wouldn't look at it with a skeptical eye. You'd just be like "seems legit!" and not even question it? Right? Yes?

[laklak]

"Unexpected" drop in unemployment, eh? How....convenient. Maybe unexpected to the Obama administration, but not to everyone else. ABC News ran a story last week about seasonal hires kicking in early this year (which they're including in the unemployment figures, BTW). The jobs are minimum wage or just above. I'm sure all those 50+ unemployed professionals will jump at the chance to get a $7 an hour job sweeping floors at Walmart.

Here's some heartening news - the Obama campaign has just broken the record for most money raised by any campaign in a single month. $150,000,000 in September! Well done, Oh Champion of the Working Class! Keep castigating those nasty, rich Republicans with all their corporate contributions!

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/?hpt=hp_t2

And he's lecturing Romney on Telling The Truth:

"If you want to be president, you owe the American people the truth," Obama said at a campaign rally Thursday in Denver.

Oh, you mean the "Truth" like "it was a spontaneous protest"? You remember that "spontaneous protest" in Libya, the one where "spontaneous protestors" managed to lay down direct and indirect fire and just happened to have mortars and RPGs handy.

I cannot wait for October 11th, I want to see Biden attempt to handle Ryan.

[Ian]

tell me if this wasn't one month before the election in 2008 and this happened, you wouldn't look at it with a skeptical eye. You'd just be like "seems legit!" and not even question it? Right? Yes?

Wrong. And comparing it to 2008 is utterly impossible considering what was happening in September of that year.

An re-read what I said about the timing. Jobs reports always come out the first friday after the end of the month. Specifically, at 8:30am EDT. There'll be another one on November 2nd, four days before the election.

[Coito ergo sum]

The timing is not curious at all. Jobs numbers are reported the first friday after the end of the month. It's been that way for ages.

Why don't you look into how they got that data before crying conspiracy.

Dude, I am well aware that this is monthly, and that the numbers were expected today. I follow it every month. Shove the snark up your ass. Who doesn't know when these numbers come out?

The timing I was talking about was the timing of a dramatic downward drop just one month before the election on numbers that are not materially different than those we've been seeing for 2 years. 114,000 jobs in September?

I didn't cry "conspiracy," either. I went through 6 years of Democrats bitching that a 4.5% and 5% unemployment rate under Bush was "Bush cooking the books" and "rigging the numbers" because so many folks had "run out of their unemployment benefits." Conspiracy my ass. The Democrats were consistent in their allegation that the Bush Administration had controlled the unemployment numbers to make them look better than they were.

All I've said here is that the drop doesn't make sense given the announced numbers. Maybe the analysis will make more sense when it is vetted and scrutinized a bit. But, if you think that 114,000 new jobs and a revision up of 86,000 from previous months plus an increase in labor participation seems like a reasonable impetus for a drop from 8.1% to 7.8%, then you and I can just disagree on that.

However, there is nothing conspiratorial about it, and there is nothing wrong with me wanting scrutiny here. It's not a wish for bad economic news, it's that the economic news doesn't make sense.

[Coito ergo sum]

tell me if this wasn't one month before the election in 2008 and this happened, you wouldn't look at it with a skeptical eye. You'd just be like "seems legit!" and not even question it? Right? Yes?

Wrong. And comparing it to 2008 is utterly impossible considering what was happening in September of that year.

An re-read what I said about the timing. Jobs reports always come out the first friday after the end of the month. Specifically, at 8:30am EDT. There'll be another one on November 2nd, four days before the election.

Dude - I fucking know when the god damn report comes out. FFS -- the timing was in the the convenience of huge drop (on weak numbers) occurring one month before the election, just in time for Obama to claim -- "look! in January 2009, it was 7.9% and now it's 7.8% -- Everything I did was awesome!"

And, good, if I'm wrong, and you wouldn't have swallowed Bush's numbers without question, then I'll thank you to allow me to not swallow Obama's numbers without question without casting "conspiracy theorist" aspersions. I don't trust Obama anymore than I would trust Bush. Obama is not the saint Democrats make him out to be and his machine is just as willing to push their political muscle to get an election point. That's not a conspiracy theory. That's reality.

[Coito ergo sum]

"
And he's lecturing Romney on Telling The Truth:

"If you want to be president, you owe the American people the truth," Obama said at a campaign rally Thursday in Denver.

Oh, you mean the "Truth" like "it was a spontaneous protest"? You remember that "spontaneous protest" in Libya, the one where "spontaneous protestors" managed to lay down direct and indirect fire and just happened to have mortars and RPGs handy.

I cannot wait for October 11th, I want to see Biden attempt to handle Ryan.

LOL - and the allegation that companies get a tax break for shipping jobs overseas, which of course is the Republicans doing. LOL.

[Ian]

The revisions may have had something to do with it, or maybe turnover has dropped (the net figure accounts for both new hires and losses - maybe losses were especially light). There are plenty of reasons which I doubt had anything to do with the President and the Labor Secretary getting together a few months back and deciding to mysteriously cook the numbers for the September report.

It IS crying conspiracy, FFS. By saying these numbers a few weeks before the election make no sense, that's exactly what you're doing. Don't tell me to shove the snark when you're the one crying foul.. then saying you're not crying foul, but yet you'd spent years of watching Democrats cry foul at Bush's numbers. Jeebus effin' crap dude. No, Obama is no saint - nor has he been the the economy-wrecking disaster you've made him out to be.