Ian wrote:Sure they would be touting it. Talking heads tout whatever they can, as Republicans are doing now, but either way I still think it doesn't translate well into November. That's what I thought yesterday morning, and that's what I still think. I probably should've said so here yesterday morning though.
Wait a week and see if polls in Wisconsin have suddenly reversed and are showing Obama trailing in Wisconsin. I'll be astonished if that's the case.
*BREAK*
I came up with a nightmare scenario for November. Try this on for size:
Obama wins the west coast, the northeast (including PA and NH) and the upper midwest (including OH), plus NM.
Romney wins the rest, including CO, NV, IA, VA, FL and MO.
Sound plausible? It does to me. But the result of this map would be a 269-269 electoral tie. In the event of a tie the election goes to our illustrious Congress. Specifically, if I have my facts right, not the current Congress but the incoming one that will be elected this November. A congressional tiebreaker hasn't happened since the election of 1824. How do you suppose people might react to that?
Then again, consider that Nebraska proportions its electors. It's a red state, but Obama could win 1 of the 5 electors there, like he did in 2008, resulting in a 270-268 win.
1. Each side would pick certain places to demand recounts.
2. Each side would claim the other is cheating. Both would probably be right.
3. Each side would file lawsuits similar to Bush v Gore.
4. The election would be delayed.
5. The Congress would vote one of them in, and that side would claim that Congress' vote ends the dispute and all court cases are moot.
6. Either the losing side will capitulate "for the good of the Republic," or we could have a Constitutional Crisis, and potentially civil strife.
7. The people would, for the most part, pick their favorite team, and claim that the other side "sucks" and is cheating. They will never acknowledge the legitimacy of the other side, preferring to pretend that their guys don't cheat and the other side does.
It would be very dangerous, but most likely we'd get through it. Not 100%, but most likely.