Blind groper wrote:Just the one response here.mistermack wrote: People will travel a lot less, because of the cost of fuel, and the lack of need for face to face contact, due to the improved net.
I note that there is, today, a whole range of electric cars entering the market. The cost of running an electric car, in terms of 'fuel' (electricity for recharge) is very much less than petroleum products.
Not really. Not yet anyway. Electric cars cannot compete without subsidies because the total energy budget for each electric car is much higher than than for a production petroleum fuel vehicle due to economies of scale and the maturity of fossil-fuel technology. You have to factor in all the costs of building, maintaining and servicing the vehicle plus the energy costs of recharging it and apply a convenience factor because electric cars have such limited range and utility to make a valid comparison.
When they manufacture an all-electric Ford F-450 pickup truck that can carry 6000 pounds of cargo and tow up to 24,0000 pounds of trailer that can go 400 miles on a charge and be recharged in 10 minutes or less at any of the millions of gas stations in the country, I'll buy one. But not till then.
AT some point the physics bump up against the optimism and optimism loses. There is no guarantee that battery capacity or recharge capability will ever reach the same convenience and utility of the gasoline/diesel engine and fuel distribution network. Because there is no guarantee of this new technology, fossil fuel vehicles will remain the dominant means of transport for the next century at least merely because of the sunk costs of the existing infrastructure and engineering. It would cost the economy far too much to attempt a rapid wholesale conversion to something other than the very mature technology we have now, so it will have to be done very gradually if there is any chance for success.New technologies, due to be introduced way before 2050, should permit great range and rapid recharge of such cars.
So, do you not think, MM, that this factor would alter your above prediction?