France : the OTHER presidential elections

[Svartalf]

So, there was little to say that would be of any concern on these boards before the first round came in, but I'm still disppointed to be having to start this thread myself.

So, the usual suspects from the same two parties that have been facing each other 7 times since 1965 (with two exceptions : 1969 when the traditional right candidate faced a moderate democratic centre man rather than an official lefty, and 2002 when we had a traditional right/far right match). Some media say that this election was a severe denial for szarkoshyt... he may have lost 5 points from his 2007 score, but he still will be on second round... that much for violent rejection. Similarly, the media and polls give the "socialist" canidate a solid lead, but when you add up all the votes from the left, including the fringes that are not that likely to cast a vote for him (some may vote for the worst, just to stir the shyt up, some will be blank, many may simply abstain), the left barely adds up to 50% of votes, and while the szark won't be getting good realignment from the far right votes, many of which definitely denote rejection of him, victory seems far from impossible for him...

And of course, there's the Hitler factor... the far right making unprecedented scores. Of course, that party has long had a tradition of gathering protestation votes, but there has recently been a change of leadership, and it seems that the daughter got SOMETHING right, even if she has less brains or style than her dad... she seriously means business, even though her business model is all wrong, ut it seems she added a social aspect to the nationalist rhetoric that is traditional for the party, and it seems that combo worked... bodes ill.

[Clinton Huxley]

Damned Frenchies and their Republic. Always said no good would come of it.

[Rum]

At this point it would seem likely you are going to have a pretty leftish government in power which won't be popular with the markets (the bastard markets!) and a strongish far right vote. It won't be the most stable mix!

I'm not sure how the Presidential role fits in with your representative forums etc. Perhaps you could enlighten us.

[Svartalf]

Pretty leftish? That hollande guy isn't a real lefty, he's gotten all soft from being too busy politicking up and making sure he gets support, even from unlikely bedfellows. Sure, he ain't a big market lover like DSK, but the socialist party hasn't been left wing since 1981... actually, hasn't since 1971, but it's hard to be sure when the brass realized that Mitterrand had conned everybody, and decided to stay aboard because even if the real left leaning options were left aside, the machine was a good one for getting in power, especially until the hoi polloi caught on that they were being betrayed.

My guess is that the government will depend heavily on the makeup of the House after we get those elections done with, and how much he has to cater to center/moderate right to get an actual majority.

At any rate, the crisis is such that there is no elbow room... I don't know if he'll manage to get as little done in the way of fulfilling his promises as szarkoshyt did, or to get as widely hated, but unless something really good happens until 2017, his administration won't be regarded as a good one, and it's more than even chances that the mainstream right canidate will replace him then. ... All this, of course, assuming that the socialist Losing Machine doesn't kick up and let him snatch defeat from the jaws of looming victory.

[John_fi_Skye]

".....isn't a real lefty, he's gotten all soft from being too busy politicking up and making sure he gets support, even from unlikely bedfellows. Sure, he ain't a big market lover ..... but the socialist party hasn't been left wing since 1981... actually, hasn't since 1971, but it's hard to be sure when the brass realized ........ and decided to stay aboard because even if the real left leaning options were left aside, the machine was a good one for getting in power, especially until the hoi polloi caught on that they were being betrayed."

- now, isn't that a familiar scenario, folks? For years, while folk like Foot were thrashing around in the unelectable wilderness, I said the UK Labour Party should move to the right to get elected, and then implement the policies of genuine, altruistic socialism (and before anybody says - no, I'm not talking about any neo-Stalinist dystopia, I'm talking about a new type of society based on altruism, not materialism). So, they did indeed move to the right, and then they kept moving to the right, and then they stayed there, and we got Bliar, and then we got the Millipedes, and now there is no real, credible "leftish" voice in British politics. Sounds like Hollande might be your Millipede.

[Svartalf]

Well, pudding is a thousand times better than his ex wife "bravehood", the shithead bitch that ran the socialist slot against sharkshyt last time... he's got the charisma of a bowl of milkpudding, and is about as hard, but at least he's not actively stupid... you have to wonder how such people ever managed to get into the elitest government school we have... Of course, I have serious beef against him, because he was titular head of the party 5 years ago, and he didn't play his cards right, and went through that silly primaries thing instead of thumping on the table and making sure HE was the candidate... therefor we had segolène "bravehood" royal running against sharkshyt, and she lost because that lady is president material like I'm Fields Medal material. So basically, I hold him personally responsible for sharkshyt having been president in the first place... and I wonder how long will pass before we can be completely free of his noxious heritage...

[John_fi_Skye]

Interesting hearing all that, Svartalf. I'll follow the election with more interest now.

[Tyrannical]

So, any confidence that if elected the Socialist Hollande can turn things around enough to make people happy with his performance? Does he have the standing to lead a deal over an EU crisis, or is he more of a quiet mouse that is more of a follower?

[Svartalf]

If pudding manages to make people happy, there will be something very wrong.
It's not like the current economy left much room for him to make his voters satisfied... so if he manages to get something good in that department, odds are that he'll be hurting the economy or sinking us even further into debt in the process.

and he sure never got noticed for his leadership ability... or he'd be defending HIS presidency right now.

[Ian]

It sounds like Marine LePen is the most important person in Europe, for a brief period of time. If she strongly endorses Sarkozy, perhaps he might win re-election. Maybe. If she stays quiet though, her supporters will not come out as much and Hollande will coast to victory... which might produce enough of a backlash on the right for her party to subsequently gain strength, enabling her to re-define what it means to be a French/European right-winger. I think she'll either adopt the latter course or else wait a bit and then give Sarkozy a very weak, token endorsement. And she'll do better as an opposition candidate than as a kingmaker. Either way, she's already won big this year.

[Svartalf]

She won't endorse him strongly at all... At best it will be a milksop like, "we must do all we can to prevent the left from coming back in power" ... or she'll state she and her dad will cast blank votes and encourage her followers to do the same.
Her party has been ostracized for decades, and now, she'll try and make them pay... I'm a bitter and angry man, but I'm real honey compared to the bile that this woman is...

My guess is she'll do all she can to make sharkshyt lose, campaign strongly to get enough representatives to form a political group in the House after the upcoming legislative elections, and throw her weight around so as to be seen as the go to person to ensure victory for the right in 2017.

[Coito ergo sum]

The National Front party platform:

They advance an economics of "protectionism," criticizing globalism and capitalism for certain industries. They propose letting the government take care of health care, education, transportation, banking and energy.
Anti-immigration in the sense of looking to stem the tide of Muslim immigration into France, and to protect against attacks on French secular values.
France should leave the Euro.
No dual citizenship.
Reinstitute customs borders
Opposed the recent French military adventures in Ivory Coast and Libya
Relatively pro-Israel and anti-Iran
Jean-Marie LePen, the founder of the party, was pro-Vichy, expressed tolerant views of Nazi Germany, and had some issues with accusations of holocaust minimization.

That about sum up Marine LePen's party? What else do we need to know?

[Mallardz]

Relatively pro-Israel

expressed tolerant views of Nazi Germany, and had some issues with accusations of holocaust minimization.

These two don't appear to coincide very well.....
To me it says; "Save the Jews!! Respect the Nazis!!"

[Coito ergo sum]

Relatively pro-Israel

expressed tolerant views of Nazi Germany, and had some issues with accusations of holocaust minimization.

These two don't appear to coincide very well.....
To me it says; "Save the Jews!! Respect the Nazis!!"

My understanding is that Le Pen's dad was a bit Vichy in that regard. But, of course, being surprised at anti-semitism in France is like being "shocked! shocked, to find that gambling is going in here.." as the quote from Casablanca goes...

However, under the young LePen, they have gone pro-Israel and anti-Muslim. Someone from France maybe can correct me if I'm wrong.

[Svartalf]

The National Front party platform:

They advance an economics of "protectionism," criticizing globalism and capitalism for certain industries. They propose letting the government take care of health care, education, transportation, banking and energy.
Anti-immigration in the sense of looking to stem the tide of Muslim immigration into France, and to protect against attacks on French secular values.
France should leave the Euro.
No dual citizenship.
Reinstitute customs borders
Opposed the recent French military adventures in Ivory Coast and Libya
Relatively pro-Israel and anti-Iran
Jean-Marie LePen, the founder of the party, was pro-Vichy, expressed tolerant views of Nazi Germany, and had some issues with accusations of holocaust minimization.

That about sum up Marine LePen's party? What else do we need to know?

They are strongly eliminating anything that has the slightest whiff of neo nazi sympathies, paramilitary looks, or hooliganish habits... skinheads and BDU styled are forbidden, members were excluded for doing a straigtht armed salute...
I of course suspect this is just window dressing and that they are actually quite sympathetic, but effing do it in private and if you have to show off where anybody not sympathetic might eventually hear of it, don't be effing associated with the Party.

One thing on which she and sharkshyt agree is to make this country into a police state, only she's hectoring him for not doing a proper work of it (and she's right about it, the SOB has been in position to handle that since 2002, and honestly, Law and Order have deteriorated under his stewardship.)

and the FN is strongly pro catholic, period. They are closet antisemites who are pro israel as a way of endorsing the lesser evil, and stirring up shyt between all those evil semites, whether they be descended from Jacob or ishmael, and in the hope ALL french Jews should go to THEIR country instead of polluting ours.