Predictions: Who will be the GOP Candidate?

[eXcommunicate]

The PPP is an out of touch leftist source, eh? What paranoia. When you write stuff like this it makes you come across like a charicature of a partisan Republican: if you don't like the information you hear, you assume the source must secretly have a leftist bias. Says more about you than it does about the PPP.

If you actually read the article you linked to, it's an article in the New York Times, not the PPP. The problematic part isn't so much the PPP polling, but with the New York Times writer's extrapolations.

More to the point, it's FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver's blog, which is now carried on the NYT website.

538 is not leftist, and "out of touch" is the absolute last thing I'd ever say about his work. They guy understands polling and electioneering better than anybody around.

Indeed. When Warren dismissed Nate Silver as a "New York Times writer" it told me all I needed to know about the validity of Warren's opinions.

If there's anybody you should trust on the numbers, it's Nate Silver. I wouldn't trust Warren's numbers as far as I could throw him.

[Tyrannical]

I still don't think Mittens can pull a delegate majority at the convention, and generally after the first vote the delegates can vote for whomever they want. They are no longer bound to a candidate and don't automatically vote for whomever their first choice endorses.

Rumor has it that they'll all vote for Ron Paul in the second round.

Of course, Gingrich could push Romney over the top in the first round if he were willing to trade his delegates for, say, the VP slot.

Technically I don't think you can trade delegates, though I think the exact rules vary by State. I know some States release delegates if their pledged candidate drops out or endorses someone else.

[Warren Dew]

Technically I don't think you can trade delegates, though I think the exact rules vary by State. I know some States release delegates if their pledged candidate drops out or endorses someone else.

I think that technically, you can usually release candidates but not direct their future actions. However, to the extent that Gingrich's delegates are actually Gingrich fans, they might be inclined to follow his endorsement, especially if that got him the VP slot.

To the extent that even Gingrich's bound delegates are Ron Paul fans, of course, that might backfire. Could be an interesting convention.

[Coito ergo sum]

Mitt Romney has all but won the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, top senator Lindsey Graham said Sunday, agreeing with the candidate that "mathematically, this thing is about over."
Romney has won 14 of 25 state-by-state votes that decide which Republican candidate takes on President Barack Obama in November, compared to eight wins for Rick Santorum and just two for former House speaker Newt Gingrich.
These victories have given Romney almost 40 percent of the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the nomination. He has 446 delegates, Santorum 199 and Gingrich 117, according to authoritative poll aggregator RealClearPolitics.
"Mathematically, Rick would have to win 75 percent of what remains," Graham, a senior Republican who serves on various Senate committees, told ABC's "This Week" program.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/republican-201 ... 42620.html

[eXcommunicate]

I predict the Republican convention will go off without a hitch. Romney's pretty much got it in the bag. Republicans will do what Republicans do best... fall in lock step. You got that? No "brokered convention" except the horse trading that happens between now and then behind closed doors.

[Coito ergo sum]

I predict the Republican convention will come off without a hitch. Romney's pretty much got it in the bag. Republicans will do what Republicans do best... fall in lock step.

The Democrats have had more contentious primaries than the present 'publican race?

And, they don't support the candidate that wins their party's nomination?

[eXcommunicate]

I predict the Republican convention will come off without a hitch. Romney's pretty much got it in the bag. Republicans will do what Republicans do best... fall in lock step.

The Democrats have had more contentious primaries than the present 'publican race?

And, they don't support the candidate that wins their party's nomination?

It won't be a "brokered" convention. If it ends up being one, then I'll donate $10 to whichever pseudo-libertarian astro-turfed organization you want.

[Coito ergo sum]

Romney is going to win via delegates. Santorum's victories in Mississippi and Alabama were narrow, and they were split delegates states. In other words, by losing Mississippi, which they thought Romney might win, he only lost about 7 delegates that he otherwise would have gotten.

[Coito ergo sum]

The Missouri Caucus is coming up. That would be important for Romney to win.

I think Romney is a shoe-in to win in Puerto Rico and Illinois. Santorum should win in Louisiana, and Romney should win in Wisconsin, Washington DC, and Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and New York. Santorum may actually not be able to pull off a win in Pennsylvania. It will probably be close. And, Rhode Island is Romney's.

Then we'll see where the numbers are. By then, Romney should be up over 750 delegates with Santorum at maybe 400 -- just guessing. With 1100ish needed for victory, Romney will be close.

[Tyrannical]

The Missouri Caucus is coming up. That would be important for Romney to win.

I think Romney is a shoe-in to win in Puerto Rico and Illinois. Santorum should win in Louisiana, and Romney should win in Wisconsin, Washington DC, and Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and New York. Santorum may actually not be able to pull off a win in Pennsylvania. It will probably be close. And, Rhode Island is Romney's.

Then we'll see where the numbers are. By then, Romney should be up over 750 delegates with Santorum at maybe 400 -- just guessing. With 1100ish needed for victory, Romney will be close.

I think Romney's and Santorum's delegate count might be a bit over exaggerated, especially from caucus States. Caucus votes are meaningless straw votes remember, the actual precinct delegates are voted on separately after the straw vote and after most people leave. I've also heard of Ron Paul supporters being elected as bound delegates for other candidates who will abstain in voting in the first round. Yes, bound delegates can abstain from voting.

[Coito ergo sum]

Mitt overwhelmingly won Puerto Rico, even against Senador Puertoriqueno Rick Santorum.

[eXcommunicate]

Mitt overwhelmingly won Puerto Rico, even against Senador Puertoriqueno Rick Santorum.

Well, Sanatorium did insinuate that Puerto Ricans should learn English before joining the Union.

[Coito ergo sum]

Mitt overwhelmingly won Puerto Rico, even against Senador Puertoriqueno Rick Santorum.

Well, Sanatorium did insinuate that Puerto Ricans should learn English before joining the Union.

Although only 15% of Puerto Ricans are fluent in English. Most Puerto Ricans have some knowledge of English. English and Spanish are both official languages in Puerto Rico.

I am not in favor of an official language in the US. I like the fact that we don't have an official language.

I don't see anything wrong with suggesting that they should learn English. I think that is certainly a good idea. I also think Anglophone Americans ought to learn another language, preferably, Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese, Russian, Arabic, or Indian.

[JimC]

Mitt overwhelmingly won Puerto Rico, even against Senador Puertoriqueno Rick Santorum.

Well, Sanatorium did insinuate that Puerto Ricans should learn English before joining the Union.

Although only 15% of Puerto Ricans are fluent in English. Most Puerto Ricans have some knowledge of English. English and Spanish are both official languages in Puerto Rico.

I am not in favor of an official language in the US. I like the fact that we don't have an official language.

I don't see anything wrong with suggesting that they should learn English. I think that is certainly a good idea. I also think Anglophone Americans ought to learn another language, preferably, Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese, Russian, Arabic, or Indian.

On a side note to that, I feel somehow guilty at the immaculate English language skills shown by many international Ratzians, where I struggle with a little basic schoolboy French...

[Svartalf]

Have you been exposing yourself to French, or possibly actively practicing it, for several hours, day in, day out, for the last 30 years?