Coito ergo sum wrote:
It does require skill. A person can make better choices when one is able to calculate the remaining odds and expected outcome. It's a probability and statistics problem.
Like -- one can take $50,000 now, or one can take a chance at guessing out of 4 remaining options. If the potential winnings are $1,000,000, one would be justified in taking the 25% chance. If the potential winnings are $80,000, then statistically one should take the $50,000, based on probability.
It tests people's maffs.
Yes, this. And it's more complicated than that even. There is a point about halfway through the game where the offers from one round to the next are likely to fluctuate more due to there being less boxes that the offer is averaged over, but before too many have been removed and possibly losing the chance of a high offer.
But the thing is, nobody who goes on that show ever plays it in terms of maths, statistics, and probabilities. They play it with lucky numbers and perceived patterns, worrying about which box to open next, and the belief that if they turn down all the deals they'll be the one that gets the top prize.
[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]