Predictions: Who will be the GOP Candidate?

[Warren Dew]

b) grumble a lot about it and not bother to show up at the polls

They will show. Republican turn out will probably be high.

I think if Romney is the nominee, he will get lukewarm support from both the religious right and from the small government Tea Party. Some may stay home. Obama might even get some of the votes from the religious right given how effective he has been in limiting reproductive choice.

[Coito ergo sum]

Read this:

Morning Joe: Portman Predicted As Romney VP Pick

Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finke ... z1iPvMABvL

I was all like:

Because:

Then I realized the truth, and I was all like...

[drl2]

The more interesting question, to me, is that if the "liberal" Romney wins the primary, will the tea-party-purist wing of the party:

a) fall in line and support him for the sake of getting the Kenyan islamo-commu-nazi-community-organizer-tool-of-Satan out of office

I think this allusion to racism does not accurately reflect the teabaggers. Despite the fact that I am not a tea party enthusiast, and I oppose practically the entirety of their platform, I don't think it's fair to broad brush them as racists and crackpots.

What about that implied racism? The "Kenyan" bit is the only part I can think might be interpreted that way, but it was a reference to the widespread birtherism among the TP folks. There are certainly some openly racist people who count themselves among the Tea Party, but I don't count them as representative of the larger movement. "Crackpot", on the other hand, is one broad brush I'm perfectly comfortable painting them with.

But, I think Romney would get broad popular support.

b) grumble a lot about it and not bother to show up at the polls

They will show. Republican turn out will probably be high.

I've seen some speculation that turnout for the primaries will be low. Should be interesting to see what the numbers are like over the next few weeks.

c) prop someone up to run as a third party candidate

Possible, but unlikely. Palin might do it, but my guess is she would probably leverage the possibility that she might do something like that for a job. I.e., a backroom deal to get her appointed to some cushy position.

i was thinking more about Ron Paul as a possible spoiler, actually. He's got a decent-sized, near-fanatical following who feel he's been largely snubbed during the primary processes. There's historical precedent for a successful crazy man with one or two good ideas grabbing a decent chunk of the popular vote - though Paul isn't nearly as funny to watch as Ross Perot was.

[Coito ergo sum]

The more interesting question, to me, is that if the "liberal" Romney wins the primary, will the tea-party-purist wing of the party:

a) fall in line and support him for the sake of getting the Kenyan islamo-commu-nazi-community-organizer-tool-of-Satan out of office

I think this allusion to racism does not accurately reflect the teabaggers. Despite the fact that I am not a tea party enthusiast, and I oppose practically the entirety of their platform, I don't think it's fair to broad brush them as racists and crackpots.

What about that implied racism? The "Kenyan" bit is the only part I can think might be interpreted that way, but it was a reference to the widespread birtherism among the TP folks. There are certainly some openly racist people who count themselves among the Tea Party, but I don't count them as representative of the larger movement. "Crackpot", on the other hand, is one broad brush I'm perfectly comfortable painting them with.

Mostly, as far as I can tell, the teabaggers did not focus on race or even bring it up, much less anything to do with Kenya. But, the OPPONENTS OF the teabaggers repeatedly made the allegation that the teabaggers were making that allegation. Where did you see the teabaggers calling him a Kenyan.

And birtherism? You realize that there was a birther movement for McCain, too, right? There were lawsuits filed and everything. In reality, the "birther" movement was quite small, and the tea party ignored it, generally speaking.

There seemed to be a lot of allegations made about the tea party. They branded as dangerous and even violent, and even as responsible for Gabby Giffords' shooting. Yet, who was ACTUALLY violent, and dirty, and who littered the parks they held their protests in, and who damaged private property, and attacked passersby? The OWS movement. Yet, the media could only make repeated assurances that such acts were only a small number of OWS-ers. Yet, there were NO SUCH ACTS at all from the teabaggers, who were peaceful and clean throughout, yet they were branded the violent crackpots.

But, I think Romney would get broad popular support.

b) grumble a lot about it and not bother to show up at the polls

They will show. Republican turn out will probably be high.

I've seen some speculation that turnout for the primaries will be low. Should be interesting to see what the numbers are like over the next few weeks.

Yep. Primary numbers aren't the issue, though. Voter turnout in November is the key.

c) prop someone up to run as a third party candidate

Possible, but unlikely. Palin might do it, but my guess is she would probably leverage the possibility that she might do something like that for a job. I.e., a backroom deal to get her appointed to some cushy position.

i was thinking more about Ron Paul as a possible spoiler, actually. He's got a decent-sized, near-fanatical following who feel he's been largely snubbed during the primary processes. There's historical precedent for a successful crazy man with one or two good ideas grabbing a decent chunk of the popular vote - though Paul isn't nearly as funny to watch as Ross Perot was.

I don't know. Paul has run as a libertarian in the past. But, he has a congressional seat now, so I doubt he'll run as a third party.

[Coito ergo sum]

Jon Huntsman

Rick Santorum --

Mitt Romney --

[Coito ergo sum]

Young Barry Obama:

Looks like "Rog" from the t.v. show "What's Happening?"

[Coito ergo sum]

Bachmann:

[Coito ergo sum]

Young Ronnie Paul --

[Coito ergo sum]

[Coito ergo sum]

Come on, Huntsman!

New Hampshire is one week away! Let's knock it out of the park! Get in the game!

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la ... 0075.story



Huntsman has bet the future of his presidential campaign on a strong showing in next week’s “first in the nation” primary. Lately he’s begun inching up in the polls, and supporters say he has the energy and momentum to finally break out of the pack.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/04/hunts ... z1iUo20wj6

[drl2]

TIME is reporting that turnout in Iowa was about the same as in (pre-tea-party) 2008. That's in spite of an estimated $12.9 million in ad spending by SuperPACs, in addition to what the candidates themselves spent. This, plus the lack of a clear winner, suggests to me that the conservative side might be just as disillusioned with its candidates as many on the left are with Obama.

I suspect Perry will drop out if he doesn't do well in the next caucus. (Bachmann may also drop out, but I consider that less likely because I think she's convinced the baby Jesus will grant her a Christmas miracle in November (calendar dates are only a theory and we should explore other options). In any case, as the field starts to narrow, where do the fringe candidates' supporters go? The race is close enough that a small shift in support from one Non-Romney to another Non-Romney could spell Mittsaster.

[drl2]

(Bachmann may also drop out, but I consider that less likely because I think she's convinced the baby Jesus will grant her a Christmas miracle in November (calendar dates are only a theory and we should explore other options)).

Looks like God works in mysterious ways - though both he and her husband told her to run, the word is that Bachmann will be dropping out today.

[Coito ergo sum]

Perry and Bachmann are out, I believe.

[Warren Dew]

TIME is reporting that turnout in Iowa was about the same as in (pre-tea-party) 2008. That's in spite of an estimated $12.9 million in ad spending by SuperPACs, in addition to what the candidates themselves spent. This, plus the lack of a clear winner, suggests to me that the conservative side might be just as disillusioned with its candidates as many on the left are with Obama.

The Republican turnout was a record high. The Democrat turnout is much lower but that's because that side was uncontested. Maybe Time is just doing its normal terrible job of reporting?

[Warren Dew]

Perry and Bachmann are out, I believe.

That will be a big boost for Santorum, I'm afraid.