USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Audley Strange » Sat Dec 03, 2011 6:53 am

Ian wrote:
Audley Strange wrote:Whereas most empires have traditionally been ruled overtly from the central ruling class of a territory, either monarchs or theocrats or politicians. That definition cannot be used in the case of the U.S. which is why many people will deny it has imperial ambitions. In that respect they are right. I don't think the American government ever had ambition to rule the globe from the centre, not even when they had competitor on the ideology market. Rather than invade with armies (though they have been fond of that.) They left it to "business interests" who bombarded the world in a shock and awe of media, fast food outlets and opportunities to turn themselves into copies of the States. An infection rather than an invasion, though I think the term unfair because I don't think their actions were considered to be actively detrimental, but it sought a corporate monoculture that everyone did or wanted to buy into. That I guess is what people consider "American Empire". Though the hundreds of bases globally does make the whole Pax Americana seem a bit off.

Problem is now that's unravelling, people are blaming the political sphere for not taking enough charge and of colluding with the business interests. Which they are quite right to do, they were. Problem is, while everything was rosy, the public generally were quite happy to mandate them to do so, even though there were enough warnings over decades for everyone to take some heed of.

Really I don't see it changing dramatically. Sate the liberals with some shiny things and they'll stop trying to mobilise the left wing. Same old Same old.
But what is American culture, anyway? The US is a nation of immigrants, churned together over generations and coming out as its own thing - upon which the rest of the world "copies", as you put it.

The "hundreds of bases" quote always puts me off though. Not to say that the US doesn't maintain a solid capacity for global power projection - it does, but there are only a handful of major overseas bases worth discussing at once. To get to the "hundreds" figure, one needs to count up every far-flung sigint station and marine garrison inside various embassies, etc.

Anyway, I don't know when "everything was so rosy" - for ten years in between the Cold War and 9/11? Also, call me crazy but I don't see anything unravelling. I see little more than a hiccup, along the lines how the US felt about its place in the world in the 1970s. Some malaise, some resentment, some unappreciation, some regret, etc. But the idea that the US is in decline I quite honestly find silly. If nothing else, the US will continue to dominate most of the 21st Century because it's the least-fucked of everyone else. Key to this premise: the US is the only major power that will not experience a serious demographic crisis (other than the temporary retiring-baby-boomers squeeze) over the next couple generations. Most of Europe is already bracing for this. Russia and Japan will face it particularly hard. And China has looming problems than most people are barely even aware of; within another ten to twenty years at most, that country is going to be in very, very deep shit (I think I've written about this extensively elsewhere before, so I don't want to ramble on too much here. If anyone of the "China is the next superpower" mindset really wants to press for details, let me know). The US meanwhile has no real shortage of sub-retired workers, nor living space, nor resources (oil, you say? the oil age won't last but another couple decades), nor intellectual capital, nor advanced technology, nor attraction for immigrants, nor entrepreneurship, nor military power - most notably the power to dominate the global commons. Shipping is still as crucial to national dominance as it was in Admiral Mahan's day if not more so, and the US Navy rules every ocean in the world: "it's battle fleet is as strong as the next 13 navies combined, 11 of which belong to allies and partners" (a quote from Robert Gates). And as it has been true since the time of Themistocles: "he who controls the sea controls everything".

//End rambling train-of-thought.//
Great response.

I'm not convinced that the U.S. in its current state could simply be considered a nation of disparate immigrant cultures and would suggest that it is basically a Anglo/Germanic European Culture with some "local" flavour exported from the more catholic Latin Europe but with a lack of hierarchical social strata that traditional Europe endures. However they are both essentially liberal representative democracies underpinned by similar historical and mythical narratives.

As for "everything being rosy" I'd say that the majority of the cold war had fizzled out by the late 70's leading directly into the shift from industry to finance based economies which developed under Thatcher and the Reaganomicon. That's not to say I think that everything was rosy, just that the public loved the illusion of lower taxes and decent public services that such an ideology was seemingly providing.

Unravelling? Politically more than economically, I think, the States are seemingly, from an outsider's P.O.V. becoming increasingly independently minded and distrusting of the Federal Government. I can see that escalating to the point where the States are not as United as they claim. I'm not sure if secession is actually on the cards, but the rift between ideological stances in your country does seem to be widening, with only hysterical noisemakers screeching their increasingly irrational slogans and drowning out any civil debate. Something's got to give.

Your last points though rather emphasise the concept of Empire a tad, no? and if you consider that the U.S. rise or "Empire" was fuelled by oil, how do you think its going to keep up when its ran out?
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Schneibster » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:36 am

I think that something that's not often clear is that the US doesn't want an empire. More than half of us are more interested in the internal fights about fetuses, jebus, gays, guns, immigration, and as always various hustles for various people to get richer, than in anything outside. We're content to trade, shipping our stuff and buying other peoples' stuff. Most people in the US read a local newspaper or watch a local newscast that gets more than three quarters of its news from within five hundred miles, and that spread is entirely within the country (though not the state). I am extremely unusual; I read more than five non-US papers every day. No local friend or acquaintance of mine, nor any member of my extended family, reads as much news as me.

What we're best at is coming up with new things to do and to make. New ways of doing things. It's our Best Thing. It's because of the diversity. If we ever give that up we deserve to shrivel up and fall off.

We've just discovered how to make fuel from grass. That's gonna be an industrial process in ten years, and oil is over at that point. It's gonna change the world. Keep in mind as well that this is all recycled carbon; that means all the carbon that goes into the atmosphere, came from the atmosphere.

We're still fighting an old problem, one that existed at the birth of my country and that was never solved. It's the problem of populism. This is what the Tories all said it would come to; the mob would get their hands on the levers and it would all go to hell in a handbasket for someone's enrichment. We gotta be better than that.

What amazes me is people who say that's naive. What the fuck, being moral is naive? Then what the flying fuck did we have a fucking revolution for? We're better than that.
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by JimC » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:53 am

The Australian Empire is yet to rise, in all its glory!

First New Zealand, and then the world!

(cue fiendish laughter...)
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by FBM » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:58 am

JimC wrote:The Australian Empire is yet to rise, in all its glory!

First New Zealand, and then the world!

(cue fiendish laughter...)
If you guys or the limeys ever (re)take over the US, I might consider moving back there. Assuming you'd revamp the health care system, that is. Surely you would, eh?
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by JimC » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:02 am

FBM wrote:
JimC wrote:The Australian Empire is yet to rise, in all its glory!

First New Zealand, and then the world!

(cue fiendish laughter...)
If you guys or the limeys ever (re)take over the US, I might consider moving back there. Assuming you'd revamp the health care system, that is. Surely you would, eh?
absolutely!

And, we will also absorb the 2 Koreas into our empire. The trick will be to supply them with so much beer that they wont give a fuck...
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by FBM » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:04 am

JimC wrote:
FBM wrote:
JimC wrote:The Australian Empire is yet to rise, in all its glory!

First New Zealand, and then the world!

(cue fiendish laughter...)
If you guys or the limeys ever (re)take over the US, I might consider moving back there. Assuming you'd revamp the health care system, that is. Surely you would, eh?
absolutely!

And, we will also absorb the 2 Koreas into our empire. The trick will be to supply them with so much beer that they wont give a fuck...
Thing with empire-building in Asia is that you conquer one country, then an hour later you want to conquer another...
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Audley Strange » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:05 am

Interesting tactical strategy. Get the globe pissed and take it over the next morning when its hung over feels like shit and goes "yeah yeah whatever just leave me alone eh?"
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by JimC » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:09 am

FBM wrote:
JimC wrote:
FBM wrote:
JimC wrote:The Australian Empire is yet to rise, in all its glory!

First New Zealand, and then the world!

(cue fiendish laughter...)
If you guys or the limeys ever (re)take over the US, I might consider moving back there. Assuming you'd revamp the health care system, that is. Surely you would, eh?
absolutely!

And, we will also absorb the 2 Koreas into our empire. The trick will be to supply them with so much beer that they wont give a fuck...
Thing with empire-building in Asia is that you conquer one country, then an hour later you want to conquer another...
:funny:
Audley Strange wrote:Interesting tactical strategy. Get the globe pissed and take it over the next morning when its hung over feels like shit and goes "yeah yeah whatever just leave me alone eh?"
Works for me, but that may simply be the gin in my veins talking...
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Horwood Beer-Master » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:26 am

Schneibster wrote:... and never mind the whole, three-orders-of-magnitude-bigger thing, eh?

We'll just sweep that under the carpet.
The British Empire was never pretending not to be an empire. Plus I hadn't even mentioned most of the Mainland USA and the various means by which that was acquired.
Schneibster wrote:...And I'd still say that India is part of an empire, being at least one continent or one sea away no matter how you sail there, whereas Hawaii is adjacent, and so is Puerto Rico.
Morally speaking I can't see why it makes such a difference whether you're annexing your next-door-neighbours, or someone the other side of the globe. I know all the UN criteria for what imperialism is makes a big fuss over this distinction, but frankly the UN is full of shit a lot of the time.
JimC wrote:The Australian Empire is yet to rise, in all its glory!

First New Zealand, and then the world!

(cue fiendish laughter...)
Add the Falklands and you've got Antarctica covered from all sides. I'm sure they'd welcome Aussie occupation so long as it keeps the Argies out. :tup:
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:31 am

One of the agreements made that allowed the US to fight Spain in 1898 was that Cuba would not be annexed. We had a large contingent of people even then who didn't want a empire and the problems that went with it.
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Ian » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:37 pm

Audley Strange wrote:Unravelling? Politically more than economically, I think, the States are seemingly, from an outsider's P.O.V. becoming increasingly independently minded and distrusting of the Federal Government. I can see that escalating to the point where the States are not as United as they claim. I'm not sure if secession is actually on the cards, but the rift between ideological stances in your country does seem to be widening, with only hysterical noisemakers screeching their increasingly irrational slogans and drowning out any civil debate. Something's got to give.

Your last points though rather emphasise the concept of Empire a tad, no? and if you consider that the U.S. rise or "Empire" was fuelled by oil, how do you think its going to keep up when its ran out?
I'd say you're right about the politically more than economically part, but it's not between the states and the federal government. The real schism nowadays is between the left and the right, IMO. The only thing this has to do with states is that some are clearly more dominated by conservatives and others by liberals. The potential for political paralysis is troubling, but that isn't to say that the US hasn't seen such levels of division before and overcome them. Have a look at the analysis done by these guys: http://www.voteview.com/polarizedamerica.asp

My bit about the oil age coming to an end wasn't to (necessarily) imply that it's going to run out, but that the importance of oil (and the US's strategic need to import much of it) will diminish as energy production moves to other sources. Solar, for example, is not only growing but is in the "pre-kneebend" stages of growing exponentially. The market will see it "suddenly" explode at some point, as exponential change is typically felt by most people. Fusion is also not far over the horizon; have a look at the work being done at the National Ignition Facility, for example.

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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:50 pm

I would be happier with a smaller part for the US to play in the world. Fewer of us wold die in places with no vowels in the names if we did that.
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Tyrannical » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:51 pm

General Patton offered the US it's only true choice and chance for an Empire and he was turned down. I can't help but wonder if the World would not have been a better place (well, for me anyways) if he was given the chance.
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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Coito ergo sum » Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:43 pm

Clinton Huxley wrote:With "The West" now in terminal and irreversible decline and increasingly in hock to its Eastern paymasters, will the USA withdraw from Empire in as dignified and orderly a fashion as Blighty did?
Blighty doesn't have an empire?
Clinton Huxley wrote:
I doubt it, they'll have to make a big song and dance about it, and crow that the USA retreated from Empire much better than anyone else did. Bah!
We have the Palmyra Atoll, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, Wake Island (a wildlife refuge now), Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Midway, Johnston Atoll. I won't include the uninhabited islands of Baker Island, Howland Island, Jarvis Island, Baja Nuevo Bank, Navassa Island and Kingman Reef, because plots of land that have nobody living on them seem hardly to constitute "Empire." And, Guantanamo Bay is being leased by us from Cuba, so it's not really ours - we're just renting. :D

The Brits say they've withdrew from Empire? Tell that to Anguilla, Bermuda, British Arctic, British Virgin Islands, Cayman, Falkland, Gibralter, Montserrat, Pitcairn, St. Helena, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, "Sovereign Base Areas" of Cyprus, Turks and Caicos Islands. And, the Isle of Man and Channel Islands. And, Northern Ireland....and Scotland...

Care for some kidney pudding, or would you prefer some tea and strumpets? Wut wut and tut tut, and all that.

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Re: USA: Losing an Empire, yet to find a role...

Post by Coito ergo sum » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:00 pm

Horwood Beer-Master wrote:
Schneibster wrote:... and never mind the whole, three-orders-of-magnitude-bigger thing, eh?

We'll just sweep that under the carpet.
The British Empire was never pretending not to be an empire. Plus I hadn't even mentioned most of the Mainland USA and the various means by which that was acquired.
...initially acquired, of course, by the .....British, French, Dutch, and Spanish....

The British conquered bit became independent of Britain in the late 1700s, as you recall. Shortly after 1800, the British bit, that had a few years before become independent (will call that the formerly British bit), purchased the French bit from one of the Napoleons. The formerly British bit became independent of Britland and then in the late 1700s then had a war with the Spanish bit in the 1840s or thereabouts. After Mexico City was sacked we came to an agreement setting the northern boundary of the Spanish bit at the Rio Grande and the southern extent of California. Britland was busy conquering the northern part of north America, an oft-forgotten part of Britland called "The Dominion of Canada." The two British bits - the one that became independent and the other British bit that didn't become independent so quickly (a/k/a Canada), came to an agreement on the southern extent of the non-independent British bit. The British conquered everything from the Atlantic to the Pacific in the Canadian bit, with the exception of Alaska, which was conquered by the Russians. The independent-of-Brit bit made another savvy real estate purchase and acquired the Russian bit.

What means of acquisition were you referring to? Was it a means that the British, French and Spanish eschewed?
Horwood Beer-Master wrote:
Schneibster wrote:...And I'd still say that India is part of an empire, being at least one continent or one sea away no matter how you sail there, whereas Hawaii is adjacent, and so is Puerto Rico.
Morally speaking I can't see why it makes such a difference whether you're annexing your next-door-neighbours, or someone the other side of the globe. I know all the UN criteria for what imperialism is makes a big fuss over this distinction, but frankly the UN is full of shit a lot of the time.
Well, Hawaii is a state now, and Puerto Rico is an unincorporated association (Puerto Ricans are American citizens). Puerto Rico was acquired from Spain during the Spanish American War. The Puerto Ricans have had a number of votes wherein they sought to gain independence, but the majority of Puerto Ricans have voted to stay as part of the United States.
Horwood Beer-Master wrote:
JimC wrote:The Australian Empire is yet to rise, in all its glory!

First New Zealand, and then the world!
You might want to watch out for Tasmania...
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