Pakistani Nuclear Security

[Schneibster]

A joint research project between Atlantic magazine and the National Journal has been published that discusses Pakistani nuclear security in detail, as well as other components of the US-Pakistan relationship. I currently consider Pakistan the center of the largest threat to world peace, since it is currently the place where a nuclear weapon is the most likely to fall into the hands of extremists. This is a pretty good review of the history between the countries and the current state of the relationship. As NATO and the US move out of Afghanistan, Afghan-Paki relations will become more important, too, and seeing how Pakistan treats the US will give some views into that as well.

Pretty good article. Read it here.

[Ian]

I highly recommend Andrew Krepinevich's book Seven Deadly Scenarios. Chapter 1 deals with the fallout (no pun intended) that could follow a collapse of Pakistan's government. After reading through the reasons why civil war or a general descent into anarchy could happen there within the next decade or two, I felt like building a bomb shelter. Of all the seven chapters, that sounded like the one most likely to happen.

[Schneibster]

I hope they know what happens to them if one'a them things gets loose, is all.

[Ian]

I hope they know what happens to them if one'a them things gets loose, is all.

That's the thing - they may not fear the consequences. The Army is the backbone of Pakistan's institutions; if that were to become corrupted at the highest levels by Islamist radicals, then the military (and its assets) would be split between loyalist elements and Islamist rebels. A handful of nukes seized by the rebels might be used to leverage a seizure of power there, or some might be smuggled out to terrorist groups, with some degree of plausible deniability (who exactly would be held responsible? And would retaliation even be possible?).

And given the demographic, economic and environmental challenges faced by Pakistan, I don't see stability there as something which is likely to increase in the coming years. Very much the opposite, in fact.

[Schneibster]

Oh, and thanks for the book reference.

I have no doubt of their instability; the Bhutto assassination was proof of that. If that weren't enough the recent power contretemps where they tried to rip off the private power providers, only to find out that they had cut them off from the ability to buy fuel and the electricity went off; riots ensued. That's not just corrupt, it's stupid.

I think it's gotten across the risk the Islamic radicals are to them; the attacks last year were pretty clear evidence. They were also deeply embarrassed when Karzai made a fuss about saying there was no point in negotiating with the Taliban, since the ISI was giving them orders he'd rather negotiate with Pakistan. You'll notice how quickly that went away. It didn't make either Pakistani newspaper until days later.

But there's still a lot of propaganda floating around. I read the Pak Daily Times and Dawn.com, and the India Times for perspective, to keep up with over there.