Population Bomb

[Schneibster]

As of October 31st, 2011, the population of the Earth will surpass seven billion humans.

I can recall when it was four billion, when I was in school, and when it passed five and six billion.

What do people think the ultimate carrying capacity of the planet is? Are we close, or is there a long way to go yet? What resources will we run out of first?

[Ian]

[maiforpeace]

As of October 31st, 2011, the population of the Earth will surpass seven billion humans.

I can recall when it was four billion, when I was in school, and when it passed five and six billion.

What do people think the ultimate carrying capacity of the planet is? Are we close, or is there a long way to go yet? What resources will we run out of first?

I think we're close, but not close enough for it to happen in my lifetime.

I try to be conscious about the resources I consume, but sometimes I feel like "fucking it all"... Why should I painstakingly reuse bags, compost, repair instead of replace, when I see hordes of people bring more people into the world and consume without even a second thought as to what they consume?

Then I go to the beach and find myself spending my first half hour picking up trash because I can't relax until my views are not marred by the effluvia of trashy humans.

[Schneibster]

Then I go to the beach and find myself spending my first half hour picking up trash because I can't relax until my views are not marred by the effluvia of trashy humans.

Then I go to the rocky shore where the otters hang out and have to wait until the styrofoam balls and plastic chairs float out of the way.

I exaggerate, but not by much- I am used to discarding a shot in ten that has some piece of plastic in it. And the plastic chair is an anecdote. It's actually an amusing one: I was able to convince a couple fishermen to pull the chair in, and we got it out of the water.

[maiforpeace]

Then I go to the beach and find myself spending my first half hour picking up trash because I can't relax until my views are not marred by the effluvia of trashy humans.

Then I go to the rocky shore where the otters hang out and have to wait until the styrofoam balls and plastic chairs float out of the way.

I exaggerate, but not by much- I am used to discarding a shot in ten that has some piece of plastic in it. And the plastic chair is an anecdote. It's actually an amusing one: I was able to convince a couple fishermen to pull the chair in, and we got it out of the water.

I've seen some awful photos of poor critters who have been unfortunate enough to swallow that crap.

[Xamonas Chegwé]

The rate of population increase is dropping in most of the developed world. We have, effectively, conquered the 2nd derivative and are now focussing on the 1st!

In fact, in many countries, Russia as a prime example, the population is actually decreasing. Even South America, with its overtones of under-development and catholicism has a reasonably slight population growth.

The biggest problem is in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East - but even in these regions, the rate of increase is decreasing - a tad more religious deprogramming wouldn't go amiss, along with airdrops of condoms and contraceptive pills. There is a definite corollary between education and secularism and reproductive sense!

One of the biggest problems with our present population is one of distribution, rather than resources.

I have a sneaking suspicion that things will even themselves out to a sustainable population level - it might, just might be a somewhat bloody process in places - but I think it will happen. After all, if we are too fucking stupid to deal with the problem, what other species are there that can? I don't hold too much faith in the reasoning capacity of tuna and cycads.


If this sort of thing concerns you, you might find this guy's ideas refreshing. I saw him talk at a Skeptics in the Pub meeting recently and he is infectious in his optimism!

[maiforpeace]

If this sort of thing concerns you, you might find this guy's ideas refreshing. I saw him talk at a Skeptics in the Pub meeting recently and he is infectious in his optimism!

Thanks XC, I'll take a look later, I like hearing the optimist's views more anyway.

I mostly get irritated and grumpy about that when I'm irritated and grumpy... I actually derive a lot of pleasure repairing things (and not replacing them). I just had to put in a new heating element on my Excalibur Food Dehydrator...amazingly, the company is still in business and had the part I needed! Tomatoes are now dehydrating...

[Tero]

The projection is 9 Billion by 2050. We'll start eating soybeans after that. Sorry Zilla, only tofu bacon. They have leveling at 11 billion, but I bet it will top at 15 billion. Before the EPIDEMIC.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Humans are crunchy.

[maiforpeace]

Humans are crunchy.

Only the fatty ones. Africa won't be so delicious.

[Bella Fortuna]

Humans are crunchy.

No need for the food dehydrator, then...

[Schneibster]

The rate of population increase is dropping in most of the developed world. We have, effectively, conquered the 2nd derivative and are now focussing on the 1st!

I had heard that. I heard a low estimate of a peak at nine billion somewhere or other in the last couple years. I seem to recall an argument in which the outcome was a low estimate of a peak at eleven billion, that may have centered around that article if my forgettery is working today.

There is a definite corollary between education and secularism and reproductive sense!

I have heard that elsewhere, as well.

One of the biggest problems with our present population is one of distribution, rather than resources.

I am less concerned about resources even in the future, myself. Nanotechnology is really going to change everything. We will have mastery of matter. And it's coming quite quickly. In fact, the problem as I see it will be to ensure mental health to prevent someone insane from releasing grey goop and destroying the biosphere.

I have a sneaking suspicion that things will even themselves out to a sustainable population level - it might, just might be a somewhat bloody process in places - but I think it will happen. After all, if we are too fucking stupid to deal with the problem, what other species are there that can? I don't hold too much faith in the reasoning capacity of tuna and cycads.

Have you ever heard of Fermi's Paradox?

It can be quite succinctly stated as, "where the fuck is everybody?"

One of the answers is, "Intelligence is self-limiting; it discovers [nuclear weapons, nanotech grey goop, some other destructive technology we ain't thought up yet, encounters Malthusian limits, etc.] and kills itself off."

If this sort of thing concerns you, you might find this guy's ideas refreshing. I saw him talk at a Skeptics in the Pub meeting recently and he is infectious in his optimism!

In all probability the future will not be malthusian, but becoming sanguine about it is probably a mistake in the opposite direction. At some point we have to start acting like adults.

[Schneibster]

Humans are crunchy.

And good with ketchup.

[Schneibster]

We'll start eating soybeans after that. Sorry Zilla, only tofu bacon.

[Horwood Beer-Master]

...I think we're close, but not close enough for it to happen in my lifetime...

I fear it may happen in mine (barring the possibility of me dying young - which knowing my luck...)

...he is infectious in his optimism!

I fear I have developed a strong resistance to that particular infection.

...Nanotechnology is really going to change everything...

I have doubts. Particularly regarding the gap between what technically can be achived, and what practically will be. Also nanotechnology will not increase the total (limited) mass of our planet - so there's still ultimately a limit to be reached

...Have you ever heard of Fermi's Paradox?

It can be quite succinctly stated as, "where the fuck is everybody?"

One of the answers is, "Intelligence is self-limiting; it discovers [nuclear weapons, nanotech grey goop, some other destructive technology we ain't thought up yet, encounters Malthusian limits, etc.] and kills itself off." ...

My favoured answer is that while life may occur frequently, complex life is much less common, intelligent life less common still, and technological life rarer still - and of that technological life there no telling how much of it has the remotest interest in reaching out into the cosmos to discover other technological life.

It's a big ol' universe and we ain't scratched it's surface.


Of course, just because intelligent life generally may not self limiting - doesn't mean we won't prove to be. It could be that we are just a particularly crappy fucked-up form of (so called) "intelligent" life.