Peak Oil and the Great Recession

[Atheist-Lite]

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/ ... -recession

Peak Oil and the Great Recession
By Kevin Drum| Wed Oct. 19, 2011 3:47 PM PDT.

Jim Hamilton, an economist at UC San Diego who has done extensive work on the economics of oil spikes, has just published a summary of the current state of oil macroeconomics called "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth." His conclusion: "The historical record surely dictates that we take seriously the possibility that the world could soon reach a point from which a continuous decline in the annual flow rate of production could not be avoided."
Translation: peak oil might not be far away, and we should take it pretty seriously. And Hamilton's research suggests strongly that when peak oil does arrive, it's not going to be pretty:
Coping with a final peak in world oil production could look pretty similar to what we observed as the economy adapted to the production plateau encountered over 2005-2009. That experience appeared to have much in common with previous historical episodes that resulted from temporary geopolitical conflict, being associated with significant declines in employment and output. If the future decades look like the last 5 years, we are in for a rough time.
(continued)

[Atheist-Lite]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GIAawST ... re=related[/youtube]

[Warren Dew]

Coping with a final peak in world oil production could look pretty similar to what we observed as the economy adapted to the production plateau encountered over 2005-2009.

It's not unlikely that production plateau was in fact the peak.



Some forecasts show production declining more slowly, but we shouldn't be counting on any more oil fueled booms like the 1990s.

[Seth]

Every time some pundit declares that we've reached "peak oil," some oil company discovers a new Saudi-sized oil field somewhere under the 70 percent of the planet that hasn't been explored for oil.

And then there's all those frozen methane nodules on the sea-bed...

[Tyrannical]

Then there is all that coal that can be converted into oil.

[Seth]

Then there is all that coal that can be converted into oil.

Or just burned to produce power.

[Atheist-Lite]

Then there is all that coal that can be converted into oil.

Or just burned to produce power.

My other car is a steam locomotive?

[redunderthebed]

Then there is all that coal that can be converted into oil.

Or just burned to produce power.

I dunno about you seth but focusing on energy that wont run out will be more important than focusing on continuing something that is inherently unsustainable even if peak oil is horseshit it will run out and so will coal and then things will turn into shit.

I don't advocate shutting down coal and oil fired power plants nor giving up cars because that will put unnecessary pressure on families and such. But to ignore the situation would be stupid and neglectful of future generations.

[Hermit]

Every time some pundit declares that we've reached "peak oil," some oil company discovers a new Saudi-sized oil field somewhere under the 70 percent of the planet that hasn't been explored for oil.

Where do you get that information from? Oh, that's right - sorry, I forgot for a moment - you are one of our fact-free zones.

Here are some facts: 1. By far the world's largest oil field ever is Ghawar in Saudi Arabia. 2. It was discovered in 1948. 3. Oil production has pretty much plateaued since 2006. 4. The reason so much of the planet has not been explored for oil extraction is that geologically most of it is known as likely to yield as yet undiscovered treasures of fossil fuels as there are of finding vast colonies of Emperor Penguins in Zimbabwe.

I don't like the prospect of extracting oil from shale deposits either. Short of exploding a few gigatons' worth of atom bombs above ground it's hard to think of a process that would poison our planet more quickly. Our best chance to ward off the impending energy crisis is to invent the safe and non-polluting fission reactor, small enough to install in every car, truck, bus, train, boat and plane. Oh, wait; similar forecasts have been made about fusion reactors. Does anyone remember the prediction that atomic energy will be so cheap that the producers won't even bother with metering it for billing purposes?

[Seth]

Then there is all that coal that can be converted into oil.

Or just burned to produce power.

I dunno about you seth but focusing on energy that wont run out will be more important than focusing on continuing something that is inherently unsustainable even if peak oil is horseshit it will run out and so will coal and then things will turn into shit.

Great, then get behind nuclear power, because that's the only other fuel source that's even remotely viable. Solar isn't, neither is wind. Tidal has some promise, but the challenges of maintaining underwater electrical generators, not to mention the cost of creating them, is substantial.

Fact is that our need for oil will drive exploration in deep water, where more oil is being found every day. Completing a transition to other, more abundant fossil fuels like methane, coal and natural gas, will take close to a century. But there is simply no other form of portable, safe, abundant fuel that will do the job for our transportation fleet at present.

Sure, eventually the oil will run out, but not any time soon, and the transition to natural gas or methane hydrate as a vehicle fuel source will be inevitable, but again, there's no particular hurry to do anything radial right now.

As for electric cars, until the storage technology has made a couple of more major leaps in efficiency, it's not a viable transportation model. You'll know when the technology is matured when fully-electric semi-trucks whose performance hauling 75,000 pounds of cargo for 500 miles without recharging that can be recharged in 20 minutes, like a diesel truck can be, are being commercially produced and used successfully. Until then, you can look forward to new oil discoveries on a regular basis as deep-water drilling technology is improved and sea-bed methane hydrate mining systems are invented.

If the oil runs out before that happens, you can look forward to a return to the Dark Ages and a massive die-off of humanity. Fortunately I'll be dead by then.

I don't advocate shutting down coal and oil fired power plants nor giving up cars because that will put unnecessary pressure on families and such. But to ignore the situation would be stupid and neglectful of future generations.

I agree, but the problem is that the eco-weenies and anti-oil people, and the power-and-control mongers in government are purveying lies and falsehoods with their propaganda in order to force things down their preferred political pathway, without regard to the actual scientific facts involved.

Supporting research into electric vehicles is grand, but trying to mandate them is asinine, because the technology isn't there yet, and may never be. Besides, to recharge an electric vehicle, or a fleet of them, involves improving the power grid and building many, many more generating plants. And with those you've got coal, natural gas and nuclear as the only viable options. So take your pick.

[Atheist-Lite]

I aggree with Seth here. The invisible hand of the market may not be real but enrgy flows are and there is enough intelligently organised energy flow to kick start the flow of other resources. The collapse of the value of the dollar which is tied to 'dumb consumerism' will mean many things. A new global elite of the most useful who will monopolise car usage, and a new 'poverty class' who will starve away comprising weak minded fools. Then this uber-elite will organise the transition. Population may halve but the half that dies away will be those who haven't the intelligence to co-operatively exploit the new 'transitional energy niche' and then the population will grow back but these will be the offspirng of the smartest half. Cultural evolution - by the invisible hand of the market place man is civilizing himself, readying himself for cities in space and trillions upon trillions - all living in harmony we can only dream of with the cunts running the show at present.

[redunderthebed]

The problem with nuclear power is that its like coal and oil - not renewable not to mention the pollution and safety problem of which have yet to be address properly. Solar wind and tidal are all viable and massive investment is being made in it.You have also ignored seth geothermal energy a source of it has being found in the far north of south australia, which is equivalent to the oil reserves of kuwait and the technology is in place to get it on the national grid right now.

I think the status quo on the issue is unsustainable but it will take time and a gradual reduction in reliance on coal and oil. But to just say renewable energy is not pheasible is patently crap and proof is popping up the world over there are communities the world over that have large slice/majority of its electricity from renewable sources and they haven't all the sudden plunged into darkness i just think that there is a scare campaign going by the oil and coal lobby.

[redunderthebed]

[Atheist-Lite]

Changes are not gradual. This idea that evolution is gradual is one I've never bought into. Wars and financial catastrophes, plagues, technical & idealogical innovations and other spot pressures will cause changes to be fragmentary but they'll be non-linear and large scale too. You'll find massive swings between extreme energy gluts and energy poverty, it'll be impossible to track it just like the transition from coal to oil....not easy to dis-entangle what actually happend with the interplay of so many historic forces. Then it'll be done - the energy will be there and will be flowing, the hydrogen age and the last epoch of life here on earth will have begun. The forcing dynamic of the terror of irreversible hyperbolic climate change will be the forcing pressure to make habitats in space. And before it all fully finally spirals and the earth dies we'll have cities in space.

[redunderthebed]

Changes are not gradual. This idea that evolution is gradual is one I've never bought into. Wars and financial catastrophes, plagues, technical & idealogical innovations and other spot pressures will cause changes to be fragmentary but they'll be non-linear and large scale too. You'll find massive swings between extreme energy gluts and energy poverty, it'll be impossible to track it just like the transition from coal to oil....not easy to dis-entangle what actually happend with the interplay of so many historic forces. Then it'll be done - the energy will be there and will be flowing, the hydrogen age and the last epoch of life here on earth will have begun. The forcing dynamic of the terror of irreversible hyperbolic climate change will be the forcing pressure to make habitats in space. And before it all fully finally spirals and the earth dies we'll have cities in space.

It wouldn't have anything to do with that it doesn't fit into your dystopian view of the world.