Indeed. I think your analysis is right about on the money. If Trump has Ohio mostly locked up, as you seem to imply, then Hillary is in serious trouble. Ohio and Florida for Trump puts him in a good spot. If he also takes North CarolinaTero wrote:As far as the polls go, even the debates do not matter to most states. It looks like it is coming down to
Iowa, Florida and Nevada. Ohio can be given to Trump. And Iowa and NV probably, so mostly Florida is going to be decisive
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5963.html
Also, Colorado could be more interesting than some polls suggest
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5974.html
A state to look at, though, is Michigan. HUGE numbers of blue collar whites in Wayne and Macomb counties. Oakland County is very wealthy and very conservative.
The realclearpolitics polls are dated almost all before 9/11/16, which is when the health issue blew open. Hillary was about 5 points ahead, across the board, solidly in the lead. But, we may see the next batch of polls, for the second half of September, change that tune, given Hillary's troubles.
Another one to look for is Pennsylvania. Hillary has that pretty well locked up, but most of the realclear politics data is before 9/11/16. So, there may be a closing of the gap.