The case against guns

[Seth]

@ this entire subforum.

Yeah, it's pretty ridiculous, but the handful of people involved seem to enjoy fapping about.

And the numbnuts in the peanut gallery seem to enjoy throwing feces at the glass.

You're mixing metaphors again, cupcake.

And you think I'm not aware of that, numbnuts?

[Tyrannical]

Jesus Seth, grow up.
I'm tired of seeing you throw around insults like you do when you should be better than that. Rational conviction should be above petty insults, and just because you have been insulted in the past is no excuse to bring yourself to that level.

[Seth]

Jesus Seth, grow up.
I'm tired of seeing you throw around insults like you do when you should be better than that. Rational conviction should be above petty insults, and just because you have been insulted in the past is no excuse to bring yourself to that level.

Why not?

One good insult deserves another.

Besides, I'm feeling particularly atavistic right now and I need some relief, and when the numbnuts show up to throw feces at the glass I find it amusing to bait them and watch them scream and jump up and down in impotent fury. Gives me a feeling of moral superiority.

[FBM]

Blind Groper, this is a reminder that this post contains a personal attack on another member, which is prohibited by the rules you signed off on when you joined. Please refrain from directing your attacks at others, but instead direct your attacks at the ideas. Thank you.

[Daedalus]

@ this entire subforum.

Yeah, it's pretty ridiculous, but the handful of people involved seem to enjoy fapping about.

And the numbnuts in the peanut gallery seem to enjoy throwing feces at the glass.

You're mixing metaphors again, cupcake.

And you think I'm not aware of that, numbnuts?

You think you project an air of considered intellection that would make a person think you're not capable of babbling idiocy? :

Jesus Seth, grow up.
I'm tired of seeing you throw around insults like you do when you should be better than that. Rational conviction should be above petty insults, and just because you have been insulted in the past is no excuse to bring yourself to that level.

Why not?

One good insult deserves another.

Besides, I'm feeling particularly atavistic right now and I need some relief, and when the numbnuts show up to throw feces at the glass I find it amusing to bait them and watch them scream and jump up and down in impotent fury. Gives me a feeling of moral superiority.

If an ape could talk, it would claim that its antics are a carefully considered plan. Fortunately, we know better.

[FBM]

Blind groper, this is a reminder that this post violates the Play Nice rule that you signed off on when you became a member. Please be careful to direct your criticisms at ideas rather than fellow members.

[Tero]

47% of murderers had no felony charges prior
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/ascii/vfluc.txt

[Seth]

47% of murderers had no felony charges prior
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/ascii/vfluc.txt

Excellent example of intellectually dishonest cherry-picking!

Here's the complete passage:

* Seventy percent of violent felons had a prior arrest
record, and 57% had at least one prior arrest for a
felony. Sixty-seven percent of murderers and 73% of
those convicted of robbery or assault had an arrest
record.

* A majority (56%) of violent felons had a prior
conviction record. Thirty-eight percent had a prior
felony conviction and 15% had a previous conviction
for a violent felony.

Here's the whole thing:

U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Special Report

State Court Processing Statistics, 1990-2002

Violent Felons in Large Urban Counties


July 2006, NCJ 205289


----------------------------------------------------------
This file is text only without graphics and many of the
tables. A Zip archive of the tables in this report in
spreadsheet format (.cvs) and the full report including
tables and graphics in .pdf format are available from:
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/vfluc.htm

-----------------------------------------------------------

By Brian A. Reaves, Ph.D.
BJS Statistician

-----------------------------------------------
Highlights

* From 1990 to 2002, 18% of felony convictions in
the 75 largest counties were for violent offenses,
including 7% for assault and 6% for robbery.

* Six percent of those convicted of violent felonies
were under age 18, and 25% were under age 21. Ten
percent of murderers were under 18, and 30% were
under 21.

* Thirty-six percent of violent felons had an active
criminal justice status at the time of their arrest.
This included 18% on probation, 12% on release
pending disposition of a prior case, and 7% on
parole.

* Seventy percent of violent felons had a prior arrest
record, and 57% had at least one prior arrest for a
felony. Sixty-seven percent of murderers and 73% of
those convicted of robbery or assault had an arrest
record.

* A majority (56%) of violent felons had a prior
conviction record. Thirty-eight percent had a prior
felony conviction and 15% had a previous conviction
for a violent felony.

* Forty-one percent of murder convictions occurred
at a trial rather than through a guilty plea. Trial
convictions accounted for 12% of rape and robbery
convictions and 11% of assault convictions.

* Eighty-one percent of violent felons were sentenced
to incarceration with 50% going to prison and 31%
to jail. Nineteen percent received a probation term
without incarceration.

* Median prison sentences received included a maximum
of 240 months for murder, 120 months for rape, 60
months for robbery, and 48 months for other violent
felonies.
-----------------------------------------------

Convicted violent felons are among the most serious
offenders in the criminal justice system. They are
convicted of violent offenses, such as murder, rape,
robbery, and assault, and given the most severe
sanctions. A BJS analysis of felony convictions in
the 75 most populous counties found that a majority
of those committing violent felonies had–-

* multiple prior arrests

* at least 1 prior felony arrest

* at least 1 prior conviction.

Additionally, the analyses found that most convicted
violent felons were --

* detained from arrest through conviction

* sentenced to incarceration upon conviction

* sentenced to a prison term of 10 years or more if
convicted of murder or rape.

These findings are based on data from the BJS State
Court Processing Statistics (SCPS) program. The multi-
year SCPS dataset includes a sample of felony cases
filed during selected months in the 75 largest counties
from 1990 through 2002. About half of all reported
violent crimes nationwide occur in these counties.
In 2002 these counties accounted for --

* 61% of robberies

* 51% of murders and non-negligent manslaughters

* 47% of aggravated assaults

* 36% of forcible rapes.

This report presents data on approximately 9,000
persons convicted of committing violent felonies.
When weighted, these cases represent about 33,000
violent felons including --

* 12,950 (39.5%) convicted of aggravated assault

* 10,120 (30.9%) convicted of robbery

* 1,987 (6.1%) convicted of rape

* 1,077 (3.3%) convicted of murder or non-negligent
manslaughter

* 6,650 (20.3%) convicted of other violent felonies.

The full SCPS dataset used for this report included
a sample of 103,000 felony cases. These cases
represent about 386,000 defendants when weighted
according to the sample design(see Methodology on
page 9). About 180,000 of these defendants were
convicted of a felony and 18.2% of these were
convicted of a violent felony.

Of the total number of felony convictions, 7.2%
were for assault, 5.6% for robbery, 1.1% for rape,
and 0.6% for murder, including nonnegligent manslaughter.
An additional 3.7% were for other violent felonies
such as involuntary manslaughter, negligent homicide,
and kidnaping (see Methodology for offense category
definitions).

Demographic characteristics

Gender

Overall, 91% of violent felons in the 75 largest
counties were male, ranging from 89% of those
convicted of felony assault to 99% of convicted
rapists. Ninety-three percent of convicted robbers
and 91% of convicted murderers were male.

Age

Six percent of violent felons were under age 18 at
the time of their arrest, and 25% were under age 21.
Fourteen percent were 40 years or older. The mean age
was 29.

Half of convicted murderers were younger than 25;
30% were under age 21 and 10% were under 18. Twelve
percent were at least 40 years old. The mean age
for those convicted of murder was 27.

A third of rapists were under age 25: 18% were
under 21 and 4% were under 18. Nineteen percent
were 40 or older. The mean age of those convicted
of rape was 31.

A majority (56%) of robbers were under the age of
25. About 3 in 8 were under the age of 21 and 1 in
8 were under 18. Six percent were 40 years or older.

Among those convicted of assault, 4% were under 18,
22% under 21, and 40% under 25. Sixteen percent were
40 or older, and the mean age was 29.

Race and ethnicity

Forty-one percent of violent felons were black, non-
Hispanic , 30% were Hispanic, and 26% were white,
non-Hispanic. Blacks (46%) comprised a higher
percentage of murderers than Hispanics (27%) or
whites (23%).

Whites(37%)and blacks(35%)accounted for higher
percentages of rapists than Hispanics (23%). Blacks
accounted for 54% of robbers, twice the percentage
of Hispanics(27%)and about 3 times that of whites
(17%).

Blacks (39%) accounted for about two-fifths of those
convicted of felony assault, compared to about a third
who were Hispanic (32%), and a fourth who were white
(26%).

Blacks (55%) comprised a majority of the violent
felons who were under age 18. Blacks accounted for
about two-fifths of the total in each age category
from 21 through 34.

Whites accounted for 13% of the violent felons under
age 18. The percentage of whites rose in each successive
age category, and was about the same as for blacks in
the 35 to 39 age category, and slightly higher in the
40 or older category.

Hispanics accounted for 30% of violent felons under
age 18, and about a third in each age group from 18
to 29. The percentage of Hispanics was lower than
that for both blacks and whites in the 35 and older
age categories.

Criminal history

Criminal justice status at arrest

More than a third (36%) of violent felons had at
least one type of active criminal justice status when
arrested. Eighteen percent were on probation, 12% had
been released pending disposition of a prior case, and
7% were on parole when arrested.

Robbers(45%)were the most likely to have had a criminal
justice status at the time of arrest. An estimated 20%
were on probation, 17% had been released pending
disposition of a prior case, and 11% were on parole.

Those convicted of murder(36%)or felony assault(35%)
were the next most likely to have had an active
criminal justice status when arrested. Fifteen
percent of murderers were on probation, 13% were
on pretrial release, and 8% were on parole. Nineteen
percent of those later convicted of assault were on
probation when arrested, 11% on pretrial release,
and 6% on parole.

Rapists (23%) were the least likely among violent
felons to have a criminal justice status when arrested.
Ten percent were on probation, 6% were on pretrial
release, and 6% were on parole at the time of their
arrest.

Prior arrests

An estimated 70% of violent felons in the 75
largest counties had been arrested previously.
Seventy-three percent of those convicted of robbery
or assault had an arrest record, as did 67% of
murderers, and 53% of rapists.

Sixty percent of violent felons had multiple prior
arrest charges, including 40% with 5 or more, and
23% with 10 or more. About a fourth of those
convicted of robbery (26%) or assault (24%)had 10
or more prior arrest charges, as did about a fifth
of murderers (21%) and a tenth of rapists (10%).

A majority (57%) of violent felons had been arrested
previously for a felony. The percentage with a
felony arrest record ranged from 40% of rapists to
63% of robbers. Fifty-nine percent of those
convicted of assault and 58% of those convicted of
murder had at least one prior felony arrest.

Forty-four percent of violent felons had more than
one prior felony arrest charge, and 22% had at least
five.

About half of those convicted of robbery (51%)had
more than one prior felony arrest, as did nearly
half of those convicted of assault(46%)or murder
(44%).

Twenty-eight percent of robbers had 5 or more prior
felony arrest charges and 12% had at least 10. Among
murderers, 21% had 5 or more prior felony arrest
charges, and 10% had 10 or more. Rapists (12%) were
least likely to have five or more prior felony arrest
charges.

Prior convictions

Fifty-six percent of convicted violent felons in
the 75 largest counties had been previously
convicted of a felony or misdemeanor. About three-
fifths of those convicted of assault(60%)or robbery
(59%) had at least one prior conviction. More than
half of murderers (53%) had a conviction record as
well. Rapists (42%) were the least likely to have
already had a conviction record.

Three-fourths of the violent felons with a prior
conviction record had been convicted on more than
one charge. This included 21% with 5 or more prior
convictions, and 7% with 10 or more.

Nearly half of those whose current conviction was
for assault (46%) or robbery (45%) had multiple
prior convictions. An estimated 39% of murderers
and 29% of rapists had more than one prior
conviction.

Twenty-three percent of those convicted of robbery
or assault had five or more prior convictions,
about twice the percentage among murderers(13%)and
rapists (11%).

About 3 in 8 violent felons had at least one prior
conviction for a felony (38%). This included 43%
of robbers, 40% of those convicted of assault,
and 38% of murderers. Rapists (27%) and those
convicted of other violent felonies (29%)were less
likely to have already had a felony conviction.

Twenty-three percent of violent felons had more
than one prior conviction for a felony, with
robbers(27%)about twice as likely as rapists(14%)
to have such a conviction record. Nearly a fourth
of those convicted of assault(23%)or murder(23%)
had multiple prior felony convictions. Five percent
of violent felons had been convicted on five or
more prior felony charges, including 7% of robbers.

Fifteen percent of those convicted of a violent
felony during the current study had at least one
prior conviction for a violent felony. For 22% of
violent felons, the most serious prior conviction
was a nonviolent felony, and for 19% a misdemeanor.

Pretrial release and detention

An estimated 38% of violent felons were released
from custody pending disposition of the case
that resulted in their conviction. Fifty percent
were held on bail, and 11% were denied bail.

Among violent felons who had a bail amount set,
about two-thirds were released when their bail
was set at under $5,000, compared to just 4% when
it was set at $100,000 or more.

About three-fourths (73%) of those eventually
convicted of murder were denied bail or had their
bail set at $100,000 or more. One of these
conditions was applied to less than a fourth of
other violent felons.

As a result of these bail conditions, murderers
(12%) had the lowest rate of pretrial release.
About two-fifths of those eventually convicted of
assault (43%) or rape (38%) were released prior to
case disposition, compared to about a fourth (28%)
of those eventually convicted of robbery. (See
Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties, 2002 at
<http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/fdluc02.htm>
for more information on pretrial release.)

Pretrial misconduct

About 1 in 4 released violent felons committed one
or more types of misconduct while in a release
status. This misconduct usually involved a rearrest
for a new offense (14%) or a failure to appear in
court (13%).

Thirty-five percent of those eventually convicted
of robbery were charged with pretrial misconduct.
This included 24% rearrested for a new offense
and 18% who failed to appear in court. Misconduct
rates were next highest for those eventually
convicted of assault (23%). The rate was 17% for
murderers and 14% for rapists.

Adjudication

Eighty-eight percent of violent felons were convicted
through a guilty plea and 12% at trial. About two-
thirds of trial convictions resulted from jury
verdicts. The other third occurred as bench trials
where the verdict was determined by a judge.

Murder convictions (41%) were much more likely to
occur at a trial than convictions for rape (12%),
robbery (12%), assault (11%), or other violent
felonies (8%). This was consistent with the
greater likelihood of murder defendants (44%)
going to trial than defendants charged with other
violent felonies (6%). (See Felony Defendants in
Large Urban Counties, 2002 at
<http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/fdluc02.htm>
for more information on the adjudication of felony
defendants.)

At the time of conviction, 59% of violent felons
were represented by a public defender, 21% by a
private attorney, and 20% had legal representation
assigned by the court. Murder (44%) and rape (46%)
defendants were less likely to have a public
defender than other violent felons (60%). Robbery
defendants (16%) were the least likely to have a
private attorney.

Violent felons who pled guilty (60%)were more likely
to have a public defender than those convicted at
trial(49%). Assigned counsel and private attorneys
were each used in about a fourth of trials and about
a fifth of cases involving guilty pleas.

Sentencing

Eighty-one percent of violent felons in the 75
largest counties were sentenced to incarceration.
Half were sentenced to State prison and about a
third to a local jail (31%). Nearly all murder
convictions (96%) resulted in a prison sentence.
About two-thirds of sentences for robbery (69%) or
rape (62%) convictions were to prison and about a
fifth were to jail. Felony convictions for assault
resulted in equal percentages of jail and prison
sentences (38%).

The mean prison sentence for a violent felony
conviction was 105 months and the median was 60
months. Mean prison sentences ranged from about
26 years for murder to about 61/2 years for assault.

Median prison sentences were 20 years for murder,
10 years for rape, 5 years for robbery and 4
years for assault and other violent felonies. Two
percent of violent felons received a life sentence
including 22% of murderers and 4% of those convicted
of rape. Seventy-five percent of murder sentences
were either to a term greater than 10 years or to
life.

Among the 31% of violent felons who received a jail
sentence, the mean sentence was 8 months and the
median was 6 months.

About a third of all jail sentences were for 10
months or longer, including 4% for more than 1
year.

Among the 19% of violent felons who were sentenced
to probation without incarceration, 7% received a
probation term that exceeded 5 years. The mean
probation sentence was 42 months and the median was
36 months.

When all sentences are considered, including those
not involving prison or jail, the mean amount of
incarceration received for violent felony
convictions in the 75 largest counties was about 23
years for murderers, about 8 years for rapists, and
about 6 years for robbers. For assault convictions,
the overall mean amount of incarceration received was
about 3 years, and for other violent felonies it was
about 21/2 years.

The median amount of incarceration received at
sentencing was 16 years for murderers, 4 years for
rapists, and about 3 years for robbers. The overall
median amount of incarceration received was less
than 1 year for those convicted of assault (9
months) or other violent felonies (7 months).

Methodology

Sample design

The SCPS sample is a 2-stage stratified sample,
with 40 of the 75 most populous counties
selected at stage one and a systematic sample of
State court felony filings (defendants) within
each county selected at stage two. The 40 counties
were divided into 4 first-stage strata based on
court filings.

The second-stage sampling (filings) was designed to
represent all defendants who had felony cases filed
with the court during the selected month. The
participating jurisdictions provided data for every
felony case filed on selected days during that
month. Depending on the first-stage stratum in which
it had been placed, each jurisdiction provided filings
data for 5, 10, or 20 randomly selected business days
in May. Data from jurisdictions that were not required
to provide a full month of filings were weighted to
represent the full month. (See the individual reports
in the Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties
series for sampling information specific to each year
of the data collection <http://www.ojp.
usdoj.gov/bjs/pubalp2.htm#fdluc>.)

Because the data came from a sample, a sampling
error is associated with each reported number.
In general, if the difference between two numbers
is greater than twice the standard error for that
difference, we can say that we are 95% confident
of a real difference and that the apparent
difference is not simply the result of using a
sample rather than the entire population.

Standard errors may be used to construct confidence
intervals around any percentage. For example, if the
standard error for the percentage of violent felons
sentenced to prison is 1.3%, then the 95% confidence
interval is approximately 50% plus or minus 1.96
times 1.3% (or 47.4% to 52.6%).

Offense categories

Felony offenses were classified into 18 categories
for this report. These were further classified
into the four major crime categories of violent,
property, drug, and public-order. The following
listings are a representative summary of the crimes
in the violent category; however, these lists are
not meant to be exhaustive. All offenses, except for
murder, include attempts and conspiracies to commit.

Murder -- Includes homicide, nonnegligent
manslaughter, and voluntary homicide. Excludes
attempted murder (classified as felony assault),
negligent homicide, involuntary homicide, or
vehicular manslaughter, which are classified as other
violent offenses.

Rape -- Includes forcible intercourse, sodomy, or
penetration with a foreign object. Does not include
statutory rape or nonforcible acts with a minor or
someone unable to give legal consent, nonviolent
sexual offenses, or commercialized sex offenses.

Robbery -- Includes unlawful taking of anything of
value by force or threat of force. Includes armed,
unarmed, and aggravated robbery, carjacking, armed
burglary, and armed mugging.

Assault -- Includes aggravated assault, aggravated
battery, attempted murder, assault with a deadly
weapon, felony assault or battery on a law
enforcement officer, and other felony assaults.
Does not include extortion, coercion, or intimidation.

Other violent offenses -- Includes vehicular mans-
laughter, involuntary manslaughter, negligent or
reckless homicide, nonviolent or non-forcible sexual
assault, kidnapping, unlawful imprisonment, child
or spouse abuse, cruelty to a child, reckless
endangerment, hit-and-run with bodily injury,
intimidation, and extortion.

---------------------------------------------
The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the
statistical agency of the U.S. Department
of Justice. Jeffrey L. Sedgwick is director.
This Special Report was written by Brian
Reaves. Thomas A. Cohen verified the report.
Carolyn C. Williams produced and edited the
report. Jayne Robinson prepared the report
for final printing.

July 2006, NCJ 205289

[Gallstones]

AUSTRALIA: MORE VIOLENT CRIME DESPITE GUN BAN

It is a common fantasy that gun bans make society safer. In 2002 -- five years after enacting its gun ban -- the Australian Bureau of Criminology acknowledged there is no correlation between gun control and the use of firearms in violent crime. In fact, the percent of murders committed with a firearm was the highest it had ever been in 2006 (16.3 percent), says the D.C. Examiner.

Even Australia's Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research acknowledges that the gun ban had no significant impact on the amount of gun-involved crime:
...

Moreover, Australia and the United States -- where no gun-ban exists -- both experienced similar decreases in murder rates:

[Tero]

Did we say there was going to be less crime without guns?

I have a personal goal to stay away from the gun dudes. They can shoot me across the street. The guy with the knife I can run away from. I may even try to kick him if cornered. The gun dude, my kicking is not going to help.

[Collector1337]

Did we say there was going to be less crime without guns?

What the fuck is the point of banning and confiscating all firearms if there isn't less crime?

[Woodbutcher]

AUSTRALIA: MORE VIOLENT CRIME DESPITE GUN BAN

It is a common fantasy that gun bans make society safer. In 2002 -- five years after enacting its gun ban -- the Australian Bureau of Criminology acknowledged there is no correlation between gun control and the use of firearms in violent crime. In fact, the percent of murders committed with a firearm was the highest it had ever been in 2006 (16.3 percent), says the D.C. Examiner.

Even Australia's Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research acknowledges that the gun ban had no significant impact on the amount of gun-involved crime:
...

Moreover, Australia and the United States -- where no gun-ban exists -- both experienced similar decreases in murder rates:

I would like to see real numbers, not fucking statistics. People use statistics when they want to lie. What are the respective murder rates per 100000 population. How many murders in Australia as compared to the States. That gives the real numbers.

[Tero]

Did we say there was going to be less crime without guns?

What the fuck is the point of banning and confiscating all firearms if there isn't less crime?

It's for your own good, so you don't shoot your penis with the concealed gun.

[Woodbutcher]

Hmmm...Australia 1.2 murders per 100 000 population. In 2012 17% of murders were done by firearm.http://www.britzinoz.com/crime-in-australia
US 4.2 murders per 100 000 population. 67.5% by firearm.http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2011/se ... ime_091911

[Gallstones]

17 Years After Gun Bans in Australia …Police Say Gun Crime is Out of Control