Here comes the other economic shoe dropping...

[Coito ergo sum]

Strike up the band, folks!

Unemployment down to 8.1%!!!!!

Woooo hoooo!!! Proof the stimulus worked and all of Obama's policies have saved us!

Right?

The only proof of anything here is the proof that for two you've used this thread in a determined effort to nitpick any little morsel of economic data in order to to snidely blame Obama for the terrible news.

Actually, generally, I've just posted the news without much comment. But, why shouldn't we blame the government? Did you lay off the last administration? Doubtful.

When I suggested that 5.0 % unemployment wasn't all that bad historically, I would get lambasted by Democrats telling me to "tell that to the unemployed!" and "it's probably really double that figure..." -- so, now that it's Obama's job, we have to be understanding?

Moreover, the post you just responded to merely pointed out that the unemployment rate went down to 8.1% -- isn't that great? I thought you'd appreciate that I posed good news here....unless...well, unless, you don't think it's good news?

Here's a thought... the US and Europe were both nailed by recession. The US went the route of stimulus. Europe has been going the route of austerity. How's Europe doing?

Still, you're right... I don't think the stimulus worked as well as promised. It wasn't big enough.

LOL. According to the Yerpeeins around here, they're doing a lot better than the US.

[Atheist-Lite]

Borrowing to pay off debt in a stagnant global economy will work for a time. Should the Republicans win the 'lection there'll be hell to pay for the US 'boom' now.

[Ian]

Strike up the band, folks!

Unemployment down to 8.1%!!!!!

Woooo hoooo!!! Proof the stimulus worked and all of Obama's policies have saved us!

Right?

The only proof of anything here is the proof that for two you've used this thread in a determined effort to nitpick any little morsel of economic data in order to to snidely blame Obama for the terrible news.

Actually, generally, I've just posted the news without much comment. But, why shouldn't we blame the government? Did you lay off the last administration? Doubtful.

When I suggested that 5.0 % unemployment wasn't all that bad historically, I would get lambasted by Democrats telling me to "tell that to the unemployed!" and "it's probably really double that figure..." -- so, now that it's Obama's job, we have to be understanding?

Moreover, the post you just responded to merely pointed out that the unemployment rate went down to 8.1% -- isn't that great? I thought you'd appreciate that I posed good news here....unless...well, unless, you don't think it's good news?

Here's a thought... the US and Europe were both nailed by recession. The US went the route of stimulus. Europe has been going the route of austerity. How's Europe doing?

Still, you're right... I don't think the stimulus worked as well as promised. It wasn't big enough.

LOL. According to the Yerpeeins around here, they're doing a lot better than the US.

You really ought to stop bringing up the days of 5% unemployment. I don't recall the economy being such a front-and-center issue for Democrats (or the public) at the time. They were too busy getting on Bush's case for Iraq.

And call me crazy, but your "good news" set off my sarcasm detector. Unless... well, you really do think that a drop in unemployment is good news...?


No European capable of look at any data is going to say that Europe is doing better than the US economically. Methinks you've got a very defensive outlook towards all this.

[Coito ergo sum]

It absolutely was. Bush was excoriated for it.

And, I don't remember addressing the problems of the day and discussing how it might be the fault of the government being such a fucking problem for Democrats in the past. For some reason, criticizing THIS government is a problem though.

Of course I was being sarcastic about the 8.1% unemployment. The labor force went down dramatically, again, to a level not seen since the Carter administration.

I am defensive about it, and part of that is because you and some others have multiple times come to this thread grousing about bad news being posted. Just accept the fact that the purpose of this thread is to discuss bad economic news. That's what a "shoe dropping" means. It was originally created, by me, to discuss whether another downturn of the economy was imminent. Rather than start new threads with every bit of bad economic news as time went on, I just posted them here. That's what it's for. Now, unless you have a good reason why discussing the bad economy, for those that are interested in doing so, is a bad thing, then I suggest you stuff your constant complaining about it somewhere. There is NOTHING WRONG with discussing the topic of the sucky economy and sucky aspects of the economy. It may not meet your goal of worshiping Obama, but - who cares? - he's the president, and his policies are certainly fair game for discussion as is his success or failure.

And, I'll bring up the days 5% unemployment, because Bush was roundly excoriated by Democrats for that, all over the message boards, including RDF. Heavily. People lambasted Bush because his unemployment rate sucked compared to Clinton's unemployment rate. And, when the unemployment rate went up, no good news regarding the economy was worth a damn for a democrat. Bush's government was cooking the books, and rigging the unemployment numbers which were really double. So, now that's been up toward 10% unemployment and is still over 8% -- your damn right I feel that the comparison is pertinent. Now Democrats don't hardly mention the unemployment rate, and when they do, it's to blame Bush or to prop up Obama's mystique.

[Coito ergo sum]

Borrowing to pay off debt in a stagnant global economy will work for a time. Should the Republicans win the 'lection there'll be hell to pay for the US 'boom' now.

There is a boom now?

Really?

[Ian]

Coito - Bush was EXCORIATED for having a 5% unemployment rate? Gimme a break. Maybe to whomever you were talking to on RDF, but not so much in the national press. One of my best friends is a diehard Republican, and I used to spend lots of time debating him about Bush policies and current affairs. I sure didn't bother spending much time on the unemployment rate when it was 5%. I think you remember things differently than most people. Like I said, it's a very defensive mindset.

And I understand that the purpose of this thread is to discuss bad economic news. I also contend that it's really a two-part thread for you: to highlight bad economic data, and to blame Obama for it. Review the past 41 pages and then tell me there's nothing to that claim, or that it's true but totally justified. And I don't mind coming in here from time to time to point this out, because I don't have to work to hard to make a case that the other economic shoe is, in fact, not dropping. Unlike a number of other developed economies in this globalized world, many of who are not only not growing but are sliding back into recession, we are not. Now, I'm not going to give Obama all the credit for that, because I'd look as foolish as I think you look at always throwing the blame at him for whatever doesn't go right. But facts are facts. I don't mind mentioning the unemployment rate, because even after a relatively weak jobs report like the one for this past month, the trend lines are still going in the right direction. It's been two years since this thread was started, and in all that time (since summer 2009, actually) there hasn't been any negative growth at all. When, oh when, is that shoe going to drop?

[Hermit]

When, oh when, is that shoe going to drop?

If you regard each of Coito's posts in this thread as a shoe, there were over 270 of them, and in that time unemployment in the USA has risen from 9.6% to 8.1.

Oh, wait...

[Ian]

When, oh when, is that shoe going to drop?

If you regard each of Coito's posts in this thread as a shoe, there were over 270 of them, and in that time unemployment in the USA has risen from 9.6% to 8.1.

Oh, wait...

Those figures are misleading, since government employment has decreased by well over half a million in the last three years.
Oh, wait...


Maybe I should hedge my bets and stop posting in this thread. Sooner or later, if this thread keeps going long enough, it really will be time for another recession in the US.

[Hermit]

Maybe I should hedge my bets and stop posting in this thread. Sooner or later, if this thread keeps going long enough, it really will be time for another recession in the US.

We'll be able to blame it on Romney. After the deluge of dropping shoes the boot will be on the other foot.

[Coito ergo sum]

Coito - Bush was EXCORIATED for having a 5% unemployment rate? Gimme a break. Maybe to whomever you were talking to on RDF, but not so much in the national press.

Yup. Bush was blamed for high gas prices by the media too. Not so for Obama.

One of my best friends is a diehard Republican, and I used to spend lots of time debating him about Bush policies and current affairs. I sure didn't bother spending much time on the unemployment rate when it was 5%. I think you remember things differently than most people. Like I said, it's a very defensive mindset.

I think it's you who misremembers. The battle raged for a couple of years on RDF. My recollection is of the media excoriating Bush over the supposedly bad economy during Bush's Presidency.

And I understand that the purpose of this thread is to discuss bad economic news. I also contend that it's really a two-part thread for you: to highlight bad economic data, and to blame Obama for it.

I think it's fair to criticize the government in this regard. Nobody held back when criticizing Bush.

Review the past 41 pages and then tell me there's nothing to that claim, or that it's true but totally justified.

Most of the time, I leave the issue of blame off and just post the news. But, again, there is nothing wrong with blaming Obama. He's the President, and he's been that for going on 3 1/2 years.

And I don't mind coming in here from time to time to point this out, because I don't have to work to hard to make a case that the other economic shoe is, in fact, not dropping.

What planet do you live on? Many shoes have dropped. The economy continues to stagnate and teeter. There has not been a recovery in jobs. There was a stagnant slight uptick in GDP, which now appears to have turned downward again, with about 2% growth last quarter. Gas prices went up like crazy this year. Inflation for consumer necessaries and groceries is through the roof. Foreclosures are still up. New home starts are still at record lows.

Unlike a number of other developed economies in this globalized world, many of who are not only not growing but are sliding back into recession, we are not. Now, I'm not going to give Obama all the credit for that, because I'd look as foolish as I think you look at always throwing the blame at him for whatever doesn't go right. But facts are facts. I don't mind mentioning the unemployment rate, because even after a relatively weak jobs report like the one for this past month, the trend lines are still going in the right direction. It's been two years since this thread was started, and in all that time (since summer 2009, actually) there hasn't been any negative growth at all. When, oh when, is that shoe going to drop?

I don't "always" throw the blame on him. In that regard, you're imagining things. And, you seem to take the mere pointing out of bad news as an accusation against Obama.

And, the shoes have dropped, my friend.

But now, it looks like the Obama team will have to set aside hopes of a Reaganesque recovery. That's because job growth is following a familiar pattern: strong in the winter, weak in the spring.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/04/news/ec ... -recovery/

Gross Says U.S. Economy Suffering From ’Structural’ Unemployment

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-0 ... yment.html

Housing completions: Record lows: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/ ... ns-in.html

Housing starts drop 4.1%: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-1 ... units.html

Mortgage Foreclosures hit record high in 2011: http://the2012scenario.com/accountabili ... n-budgets/ Jury is out on 2012.

And, according to some we may be headed for another recession -- there's ANOTHER shoe for you:

Last week’s four-part series laying out the reasons for my prediction of a U.S. recession in 2012 elicited a variety of questions and comments from readers that merit a response.
-- Global context: One reader objected to my focus on the U.S. alone: “There is no longer an American economy -- only a world economy. The world economy is very unstable and will continue to be so into the foreseeable futur

e. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/0 ... 77994.html

[Coito ergo sum]

Maybe I should hedge my bets and stop posting in this thread. Sooner or later, if this thread keeps going long enough, it really will be time for another recession in the US.

We'll be able to blame it on Romney. After the deluge of dropping shoes the boot will be on the other foot.

The boot is on the other foot now. It's not like you folks ever laid off a Republican on anything in the past. The idea that I'm not fair to Obama is ludicrous. Ian knows full well I have supported Obama on certain issues. That is more than I can say for most of the Democrat supporters here, who can't seem to bring themselves to acknowledge anything about a Republican other than that they are either stupid or evil, they wage "war" on women, they are mean and want people to die in the streets of starvation and lack of medical care.

Boot on the other foot indeed. You folks can't even seem to discuss these economic issue without getting all bunged up about your precious Obama POSSIBLY being brought into the mix.

[Coito ergo sum]

When, oh when, is that shoe going to drop?

If you regard each of Coito's posts in this thread as a shoe, there were over 270 of them, and in that time unemployment in the USA has risen from 9.6% to 8.1.

Oh, wait...

First it rose from 7.1 to 10.1 (I think it broke 10 - maybe it was 9.9), and then it has dropped to 8.1, but much of that is a reduction in the total number of people "in the labor force" (meaning many many people have stopped looking for work altogether, and you're not counted as unemployed if you haven't looked for a job actively in the last 4 weeks). So, the labor force is at its lowest level in 32 years. Great job. The government is to be lauded for that, I guess. My bad.

[Ian]

I don't "always" throw the blame on him. In that regard, you're imagining things. And, you seem to take the mere pointing out of bad news as an accusation against Obama.

I'm sorry... how did this all get started today? Oh right... you saw the April jobs report and came in to post something snarky about Obama.
I didn't bump this thread a few hours ago and say something about the President, that was you.

Coito, one can always cherry-pick data like what you put above. One can also always find someone voicing a prediction about the next big downturn. Remember: economists have accurately predicted all nine of the last three recessions.

Pointing out glum data on new housing starts and so on is failing to see the forest from the trees. Stepping back to look at the big picture: the economy is still growing. Growing a good bit faster than any other major economy in the developed world, I might add. The recovery is not identical to what's been seen at other times, because the economy and the nature & depth of the downturn were not the same as the other recent recessions.

A nice rule of thumb: you know a recovery is on when the surprising bits of good news outnumber and outweigh the surprising bits of bad news. And if you really can't see much good news, then I'd say your analysis is suffering from quite a bit of bias. One need only go back to this thread's May 2010 opening post to prove that.

But by all means keep on doubling-down here. It is your thread after all.

[Hermit]

Maybe I should hedge my bets and stop posting in this thread. Sooner or later, if this thread keeps going long enough, it really will be time for another recession in the US.

We'll be able to blame it on Romney. After the deluge of dropping shoes the boot will be on the other foot.

The boot is on the other foot now. It's not like you folks ever laid off a Republican on anything in the past. The idea that I'm not fair to Obama is ludicrous. Ian knows full well I have supported Obama on certain issues. That is more than I can say for most of the Democrat supporters here, who can't seem to bring themselves to acknowledge anything about a Republican other than that they are either stupid or evil, they wage "war" on women, they are mean and want people to die in the streets of starvation and lack of medical care.

Boot on the other foot indeed. You folks can't even seem to discuss these economic issue without getting all bunged up about your precious Obama POSSIBLY being brought into the mix.

Coito, I do appreciate many of your posts. You do the homework and cite facts as well as links to them. That is more than the majority of members you debate with do. Why spoil that with your dummyspits? They make you look a fit target for ridicule, especially when you indulge in sweeping generalisations like "You folks can't even seem to discuss these economic issue without getting all bunged up about your precious Obama POSSIBLY being brought into the mix." Newsflash: Obama is not precious to me. Not a single American President during my lifetime is precious to me. The only saving grace is that he is not quite as bad as the alternative and his recent predecessors. Incidentally, the same goes for our Prime Minister, Julia Gillard. She is despicable and contemptible, but I support her because our next Prime Minister, Tony Abbott is going to be much, much worse.

[Hermit]

When, oh when, is that shoe going to drop?

If you regard each of Coito's posts in this thread as a shoe, there were over 270 of them, and in that time unemployment in the USA has risen from 9.6% to 8.1.

Oh, wait...

First it rose from 7.1 to 10.1 (I think it broke 10 - maybe it was 9.9), and then it has dropped to 8.1, but much of that is a reduction in the total number of people "in the labor force" (meaning many many people have stopped looking for work altogether, and you're not counted as unemployed if you haven't looked for a job actively in the last 4 weeks). So, the labor force is at its lowest level in 32 years. Great job. The government is to be lauded for that, I guess. My bad.

Thanks for the clarification. Now let me clarify: Your first post mentioned an unemployment rate of 9.9%. 276 of shoe-dropping posts later that stretched through two years you mentioned that the rate is 8.1%. Egad! Going by those figures we'll all be rooned!

Please don't try to pull the wool over my eyes with a vague reference to "a reduction in the total number of people in the labor force." Employment has actually grown, slowly but steadily. From tradingeconomics.com: "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April. This increase followed a gain of 154,000 in March and gains averaging 252,000 per month for December to February."