A coming recession?

[Coito ergo sum]

Gosh CES, I have no idea why you would post an article that relies on outdated data. Just like I have no idea why creationists post analyses of fossils from the 1950's.

it didn't rely on outdated data. I explained it to you. Please reread the bit about "two quarters averaging under 2%" and "year over year averaging below 2%.

The year isn't up, and the third quarter numbers aren't out -- we have the advance estimate, which has twice been revised down this year.

I know you're emotionally invested in this, which is why you can't discuss issues and instead you prefer to try to shout them down. You think certain topics ought not be discussed at all. You can keep it up, but it makes you look rather silly.

[JimC]

Need another stimulus! Let's borrow.

No!

Declare war on Madagascar!

[Coito ergo sum]

First month of Obama's fiscal year 2013 -- http://ca.news.yahoo.com/budget-deficit ... iness.html

So, 2013's fiscal year is starting out well! $120 billion deficit for the month. If we keep up a $120 billion per month pace, that's a $1.44 trillion for the year! Good show!

Did we bust the budget? No, of course not, because we don't have a budget for 2013. We just operate without budgets now.

Stay tuned, folks. The fun is just starting!

[PsychoSerenity]

Should we merge this thread with Coito's economic shoe dropping thread? It's better to be able to see clearly that's he's been going on about the same bollocks for two and a half years.

[Coito ergo sum]

Should we merge this thread with Coito's economic shoe dropping thread? It's better to be able to see clearly that's he's been going on about the same bollocks for two and a half years.

No, of course not. It's a different topic.

And, of course, you're another one in the camp of "fingers in your ears" -- no sense keeping up on the latest economic news. Only report the rosy info, right?

As said to the other guy, if this topic doesn't interest you - pick one that does. Is that so hard? Why do you folks insist on popping in and shitting in threads you don't like?

[Jesus_of_Nazareth]

So, the Republicans pushing America off a cliff will somehow be Obamas fault?

Is this another attemot to create the end of days ...........

.....if only the US had a President with magic underpants .

[Coito ergo sum]

So, the Republicans pushing America off a cliff will somehow be Obamas fault?

How is it more the Republicans fault?

[Ian]

So, the Republicans pushing America off a cliff will somehow be Obamas fault?

How is it more the Republicans fault?

Let's wait a couple months and see which side offered more in the way of compromise than confrontation.

Judging by what McConnell and others have had to say so far, I'm inclined to think the GOP leadership still believes they can play chicken and force the other side to swerve first so they don't have to deal with any significant tax increaes on the wealthy, knowing that they can spin a subsequent public relations war to their benefit; "It wasn't our fiscal cliff - in the end we had minimal input because the President wouldn't meet us closer to our terms. This recession is his fault."

But who knows. For some reason, I'm optimistic. Judging from the last lame-duck Congress in late 2010, some stuff might actually get done on this issue.

[Jason]

Need another stimulus! Let's borrow.

No!

Declare war on Madagascar!

Are the lemurs sheltering Al Qaida?

[Coito ergo sum]

So, the Republicans pushing America off a cliff will somehow be Obamas fault?

How is it more the Republicans fault?

Let's wait a couple months and see which side offered more in the way of compromise than confrontation.

...with specificity as to what was offered.

Judging by what McConnell and others have had to say so far, I'm inclined to think the GOP leadership still believes they can play chicken and force the other side to swerve first so they don't have to deal with any significant tax increaes on the wealthy, knowing that they can spin a subsequent public relations war to their benefit; "It wasn't our fiscal cliff - in the end we had minimal input because the President wouldn't meet us closer to our terms. This recession is his fault."

But who knows. For some reason, I'm optimistic. Judging from the last lame-duck Congress in late 2010, some stuff might actually get done on this issue.

They ought to be very clear on one thing -- nothing sticks to Obama, and most of the media is in the tank for Obama, so the only people that will be blamed for the fiscal cliff are the Republicans.

There is nothing good that will get done regarding the fiscal cliff. It will be kicked down the line.

Obama was reelected. The Republicans need to stop hanging on to the tax rates on those making over $250,000. They need to agree to those marginal tax increases, but not a penny increase for anyone under that level. They need to make clear that the American people are being sold the line that only "millionaires and billionaires" are going get tax increases and "nobody making under $250,000 will see a dime of tax increases." The latter promise was more honored in the breach than anything else, but that's water under the bridge now. Just fucking come to the table with a deal to accept $250,000 tax rate increases, but require that the Democrats agree to drastic spending cuts across the board.

This can't wait until the last minute, though, because in order to get the spending cuts to stick, they have to be specifically laid out in clear and unambiguous terms. They can't be "projected reductions in future estimated spending increases" and "yay! we aren't going to spend as much as they originally wanted to spend! Hurray!" Just fucking make a list of god damn cuts and say, "here -- if you cut all this, we'll give you the tax increases." Done. If the Democrats reject the spending cuts, then it'd be easy to blame them, because they opted for more spending. But, if they don't lay it out in a clear, easy to understand fashion, then the argument will just devolve into the usual partisan cheering and jeering.

But, they WON'T do it. They'll wait until the last minute, put together a patchwork quilt of bullshit, that gives political cover to all concerned, and then move it to the next elections in the mid terms. The Democrats will claim they are enacting spending reductions, because they reduced their original estimates of spending. And, the Republicans will claim they didn't let the Democrats raise taxes, and both their camps will cheer their own teams and jeer the other.

[Kristie]

Need another stimulus! Let's borrow.

No!

Declare war on Madagascar!

Are the lemurs sheltering Al Qaida?

Yes! Bomb them!!!

[Gerald McGrew]

Should we merge this thread with Coito's economic shoe dropping thread? It's better to be able to see clearly that's he's been going on about the same bollocks for two and a half years.

Remember, conservatives have spent the last several years promising everyone that Obama will ruin the economy (some say intentionally even), and they spent the last year promising that reelecting him would lead to financial disaster ("It's the end of America"). So we can now expect them to spend the next few years cherry-picking and spinning data to try and convince everyone that they were right.

However, given the conservatives' track record on predictions...

Allowing gays to serve openly in the military will decimate our military, affect troop readiness, and demoralize the troops;

Allowing gays to marry will be the end of western civilization;

Romney will win in an electoral landslide;

The stimulus won't create a single job;

Austerity in the midst of a recession = recovery;

The reason billionaires aren't hiring is because they need more money;

...I'm inclined to look elsewhere.

[Ian]

Coito - That was a good post... except for the whine about how the media is in the tank for Obama and nothing seems to stick to him. Besides it being a really tired line, let's wait until no deal happens on the fiscal cliff and a major recession starts up, and then we'll see if the "mainstream" media lets Obama off blameless.

[Coito ergo sum]

Should we merge this thread with Coito's economic shoe dropping thread? It's better to be able to see clearly that's he's been going on about the same bollocks for two and a half years.

Remember, conservatives have spent the last several years promising everyone that Obama will ruin the economy (some say intentionally even), and they spent the last year promising that reelecting him would lead to financial disaster ("It's the end of America"). So we can now expect them to spend the next few years cherry-picking and spinning data to try and convince everyone that they were right.

We are in the midst of a disaster. The fact that you think the economy is in good enough shape to be ruined is really laughable.

And, just because some people accuse him of "intentionally" wanting this or that doesn't mean there won't be another recession.

Cherry picking? Well, if you think picking cherries from a bowl of cherries is cherry picking, I guess you're right.

However, given the conservatives' track record on predictions...

Allowing gays to serve openly in the military will decimate our military, affect troop readiness, and demoralize the troops;

Who cares what some conservatives think? I'm in favor of gays serving in the military.

Allowing gays to marry will be the end of western civilization;

Who cares what some conservatives think, and what obama thought before about 6 months ago? I've been in favor of gay marriage for 20 years, long before it was legal anywhere.

Romney will win in an electoral landslide;

A lot of people predicted a lot of different things. I predicted an Obama victory, and that it would be close. I had doubts for a while, but I ended up being persuaded by Sam Wang and Nate Silver.

The stimulus won't create a single job;

It probably create a single job, yes. It was a giant boondoggle, that much is certain, and an incredible waste of money.

Austerity in the midst of a recession = recovery;

Plenty of evidence for that. The European countries that made the hard decisions early are doing the best.

Estonia’s achievement [a 7.6% GDP increase] is all the more remarkable when you consider that it was one of the countries hardest hit by the global financial crisis. In 2008-2009, its economy shrank by 18 percent. That’s a bigger contraction than Greece has suffered over the past five years.

How did they bounce back? “I can answer in one word: austerity. Austerity, austerity, austerity,” says Peeter Koppel, investment strategist at the SEB Bank.

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news ... ebt-crisis

The reason billionaires aren't hiring is because they need more money;

...I'm inclined to look elsewhere.

Nobody says this. That's a Liberal nonsense statement.

Let's follow the Democrats' path -- more excessive spending -- unrestrained quantitative easing -- artificially low interest rates -- stifling regulation -- and if they get the chance, increased burdensome taxation...

[Coito ergo sum]

Coito - That was a good post... except for the whine about how the media is in the tank for Obama and nothing seems to stick to him. Besides it being a really tired line, let's wait until no deal happens on the fiscal cliff and a major recession starts up, and then we'll see if the "mainstream" media lets Obama off blameless.

It would be the first time anything was deemed his responsibility yet. Nobody even asks him why he and his Party can't pass a budget, and there is almost no noise whatsoever about the fact that he's about to have his first full press conference in going on 9 months. All the green energy debacles? Solyndra? Where are the investigations by journalists as to this nonsense and cronyism? I mean -- dude -- journalists seem to just give him a pass.