The Iowa Caucuses - The Sausage Being Made

[Svartalf]

Wow, totally neck-and-neck.

The nominee will be Romney. The process stories over the next few days will discuss the reasons for Santorum's surprise surge - namely, that he's a repressive Christian jerk who spent all his time in Iowa and appealed to the evangelicals there. He's the New Huckabee. And in a couple weeks he'll be absolutely demolished in New Hampshire, where his sort of social conservatism doesn't fit at all well with the New England crowd; he might, however, stick it out as far as South Carolina. Romney should take NH in a walk (though Ron Paul may pull a surprisingly strong showing in this quirky state), and he'll have the money and organization to keep going. Perry is destined to drop out (probably no later than after NH, if not after Super Tuesday), as is Bachmann (probably within days). Huntsman - he's like the anti-Santorum, so he's ignoring Iowa and focusing on New Hampshire. But he can't last too long after that. He's only running for name recognition for 2016, IMO. Gingrich, I think, will keep fighting and get a few surprise showings here and there in other states, but he won't end up with the nomination. Ditto Ron Paul - except that he's the Wild Card. He won't get the nomination, surely knows it, but he also isn't running for Congress again. This election is his last hurrah, and he might pull a Nader and run as a 3rd party candidate.

Look out for Jon Huntsman in New Hampshire. He's been spending his whole campaign there, and if he can take New Hampshire, then he may have a chance to get in the mix.

If fucking Santorum can come out of nowhere in Iowa, then Huntsman can do the same in NH.

It's not likely, but it is possible. And, Huntsman is my favorite of the GOP lineup. Accomplished. Intelligent. Pro-science. And, ecumenical in terms of religiosity. Two adopted children, in addition to a bunch of biologicals, one from China and one from India. Successful businessman. Popular governor. Ambassador and trade representative, and diplomat, with 30 years of active experience.

He is the most qualified GOP candidate, bar none. For some reason, the media isn't interested.

The media isn't interested firstly because GOP primary voters aren't interested. As a result, he gets little continual media exposure. He'll get some more after New Hampshire, assuming he comes in the top three (and that's a big if), but he won't survive places like South Carolina and Florida (too expensive to campaign there, even if it's not quite as conservative as other states).

Look for Huntsman in 2016.

You looking forward to a Biden administration? (because if he gets 8 years as veep, he'll be a natch shoe in for the next dem nomination)

[Coito ergo sum]

I was aghast to learn, during the small hours of this morning, that Mitt is actually his real (middle) name.
There is something profoundly disturbing about hearing a room full of eager voters all chanting "Mitt! Mitt! Mitt!" like a horde of zombies.
Though not quite as scary as the - er - mitt spewing out of his mouth...

What's wrong with them chanting his name? Don't supporters do that at rallies all over?

What was it that he was saying that you felt was "mitt" specifically? Any prime examples?

And you have to admit, that name fits him like a glove.

I think you're just smitten...

Balls.

Mittimus

[Coito ergo sum]

Wow, totally neck-and-neck.

The nominee will be Romney. The process stories over the next few days will discuss the reasons for Santorum's surprise surge - namely, that he's a repressive Christian jerk who spent all his time in Iowa and appealed to the evangelicals there. He's the New Huckabee. And in a couple weeks he'll be absolutely demolished in New Hampshire, where his sort of social conservatism doesn't fit at all well with the New England crowd; he might, however, stick it out as far as South Carolina. Romney should take NH in a walk (though Ron Paul may pull a surprisingly strong showing in this quirky state), and he'll have the money and organization to keep going. Perry is destined to drop out (probably no later than after NH, if not after Super Tuesday), as is Bachmann (probably within days). Huntsman - he's like the anti-Santorum, so he's ignoring Iowa and focusing on New Hampshire. But he can't last too long after that. He's only running for name recognition for 2016, IMO. Gingrich, I think, will keep fighting and get a few surprise showings here and there in other states, but he won't end up with the nomination. Ditto Ron Paul - except that he's the Wild Card. He won't get the nomination, surely knows it, but he also isn't running for Congress again. This election is his last hurrah, and he might pull a Nader and run as a 3rd party candidate.

Look out for Jon Huntsman in New Hampshire. He's been spending his whole campaign there, and if he can take New Hampshire, then he may have a chance to get in the mix.

If fucking Santorum can come out of nowhere in Iowa, then Huntsman can do the same in NH.

It's not likely, but it is possible. And, Huntsman is my favorite of the GOP lineup. Accomplished. Intelligent. Pro-science. And, ecumenical in terms of religiosity. Two adopted children, in addition to a bunch of biologicals, one from China and one from India. Successful businessman. Popular governor. Ambassador and trade representative, and diplomat, with 30 years of active experience.

He is the most qualified GOP candidate, bar none. For some reason, the media isn't interested.

The media isn't interested firstly because GOP primary voters aren't interested. As a result, he gets little continual media exposure. He'll get some more after New Hampshire, assuming he comes in the top three (and that's a big if), but he won't survive places like South Carolina and Florida (too expensive to campaign there, even if it's not quite as conservative as other states).

Look for Huntsman in 2016.

Well, often its a chicken and an egg thing.

Moreover, Santorum was not even speculated as being in the running for Iowa, and he is tied with Romney. So, anything is possible. I just tossed him a few sheckels and a kind word. Hopefully, he'll still be in the running in Florida. His campaign headquarters is in Orlando, and I suspect that isn't arbitrary.

[maiforpeace]

I was aghast to learn, during the small hours of this morning, that Mitt is actually his real (middle) name.
There is something profoundly disturbing about hearing a room full of eager voters all chanting "Mitt! Mitt! Mitt!" like a horde of zombies.
Though not quite as scary as the - er - mitt spewing out of his mouth...

What's wrong with them chanting his name? Don't supporters do that at rallies all over?

What was it that he was saying that you felt was "mitt" specifically? Any prime examples?

Whoosh.

[Ian]

Look for Huntsman in 2016.

You looking forward to a Biden administration? (because if he gets 8 years as veep, he'll be a natch shoe in for the next dem nomination)

I don't know if Biden will actually run in 2016. I expect he will, but he'll be turning 74 that November. Even older than McCain was in 2008. That's not a plus for any candidate.

And the Vice Presidency does not make a candidate a shoe-in for the nomination. There are other Democrats who would make good candidates to succeed Obama in 2016. I have my eye on a couple. But I think 2016 will be the GOP's year.

[Coito ergo sum]

Look for Huntsman in 2016.

You looking forward to a Biden administration? (because if he gets 8 years as veep, he'll be a natch shoe in for the next dem nomination)

I don't know if Biden will actually run in 2016. I expect he will, but he'll be turning 74 that November. Even older than McCain was in 2008. That's not a plus for any candidate.

And the Vice Presidency does not make a candidate a shoe-in for the nomination. There are other Democrats who would make good candidates to succeed Obama in 2016. I have my eye on a couple. But I think 2016 will be the GOP's year.

I've heard some rumblings that Biden could be replaced by Clinton on the Obama ticket.

[Ian]

Heard that too. I doubt it, but what a game-changer that would be.

[Coito ergo sum]

Heard that too. I doubt it, but what a game-changer that would be.

I think it would be a plus. Biden has done little but make people think he's a clumsy sod, and somewhat laughable. Hillary would galvanize some serious support.

[Ian]

Exactly. And either way, that reputation also emphasizes why I don't think Biden will be a candidate in 2016, or at least not a strong one.

[drl2]

I was blindsided by Santorum. Why? WHY????!!!

I oppose him strenuously.

Did it squirt out during vigorous thrusting or did you put your face down there afterward?

In any case, you might want to flush that eye out with cold water.

[drl2]

He [Huntsman] is the most qualified GOP candidate, bar none. For some reason, the media isn't interested.

Have to agree with you on that one. I disagree with him on a lot of issues, but he seems like he has a brain and is not afraid to use it.

Which means his chance of winning the nomination is absolutely nil.

[Svartalf]

Is Santorum such an unknown? French knews just called him "a virtual unknown"... yet, I've known about him for months, and I knew the word Dan Savage associated with him for a lot longer than that.

[Warren Dew]

And the Vice Presidency does not make a candidate a shoe-in for the nomination. There are other Democrats who would make good candidates to succeed Obama in 2016. I have my eye on a couple. But I think 2016 will be the GOP's year.

The vice president tends to get the nomination after presidencies seen as good - Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton - on the mistaken belief that the good years will continue. That's not going to be something Biden has to worry about.

[Warren Dew]

He is the most qualified GOP candidate, bar none. For some reason, the media isn't interested.

If a big government soft socialist candidate is what you're looking for, Huntsman might be the "most qualified". Not surprising the GOP isn't interested in that.

[JimC]

I like the wit of the thread title...

(however, I actually like watching sausages being made, as well as eating them when BBQ'd...)

Do you mean grilled? Or, do you actually barbecue sausages...?

I like the caucus system in general. It could use some modernizing. But, the idea of interested people taking time to listen to the candidates first-hand, and to discuss the issues at a caucus, and to submit votes (on paper) and in person. As it happens, it's a tad archaic, but it does have its advantages.

Another language issue... We have an outdoor gas BBQ with a hotplate on one side and an open-bar griddle on the other. That's where I BBQ my Italian pork sausages, redolent of herbs and garlic, while drinking beer on a summer evening...

It's quite a different system from ours; the process of selecting a party leader (who will be Prime Minister when that party is in power) can be quite a savage affair, at times, as the recent rise of Julia Gillard, after neatly knifing Kevin Rudd, shows well...