World population

[Atheist-Lite]

The birth rate is declining because human beings are moving from population growth towards a steep collapse in human population. This is the top of the rollar coaster folks - it won't go any higher but will go down, quite fast. Are you ready for your future?

Crumple, thy name is schadenfreude...

I'm only pointing out you've train headlights not the other end of the tunnel up ahead. There are limits to social complexity, these can be pushed for a time(thinks IT revolution and the credit boom) but the rebound is over-simplification and this is what I believe will ultimately crash global population levels below the threshold for maintaining industrial civilization. Those with the best educated populations will be also areas that have the most population density & in the 'over-simplification phase will experience the greatest social chaos...amid the social chaos very little can be done. Famines will ultimately sweep the earth as the green revolution fades and climate change, resoruce depletion. collapse of social customs etc etc all feed on themselves, until all is done...very few will be left.

[JimC]

Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow is sorrow beyond belief...

[Exi5tentialist]

I'm only pointing out you've train headlights not the other end of the tunnel up ahead. There are limits to social complexity, these can be pushed for a time(thinks IT revolution and the credit boom) but the rebound is over-simplification and this is what I believe will ultimately crash global population levels below the threshold for maintaining industrial civilization. Those with the best educated populations will be also areas that have the most population density & in the 'over-simplification phase will experience the greatest social chaos...amid the social chaos very little can be done. Famines will ultimately sweep the earth as the green revolution fades and climate change, resoruce depletion. collapse of social customs etc etc all feed on themselves, until all is done...very few will be left.

The only causes of this population decline you posit are resource depletion and limits to social complexity. They're relevant as factors in the future of humanity, but not convincing as causes of a population crash. Could you elaborate a bit? Your theory seems to need a bit of padding out. And I mean of the causes, not the effects of population decline.

[Hermit]

The birth rate is declining because human beings are moving from population growth towards a steep collapse in human population.

Wow! The profundity is awesome.

[Hermit]

And also remember large areas of the planet relatively uninhabited such as Australia for example.

...and Antarctica. There are some pretty good reasons why both of them are so sparsely populated.

Just repeating what has already been said in case you are not inclined to catch up on all of the previous posts that have been made since your last one.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I forget the stats now, but sub-Saharan Africa has the highest predicted population growth rate last I heard.

Great place for over-population.

[Clinton Huxley]

There's plenty of space between Liverpool and Manchester that is just ruined, overgrown former factories and the like. We could squeeze a few million in there.

[Atheist-Lite]

I forget the stats now, but sub-Saharan Africa has the highest predicted population growth rate last I heard.

Great place for over-population.

Like California with camels.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I forget the stats now, but sub-Saharan Africa has the highest predicted population growth rate last I heard.

Great place for over-population.

Like California with camels.

More like China.

[Atheist-Lite]

I forget the stats now, but sub-Saharan Africa has the highest predicted population growth rate last I heard.

Great place for over-population.

Like California with camels.

More like China.

Outsourcing again....

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I forget the stats now, but sub-Saharan Africa has the highest predicted population growth rate last I heard.

Great place for over-population.

Like California with camels.

More like China.

Outsourcing again....

[mistermack]

Education of women is a function of increase in wealth. Churches probably do wield a big influence, but not big enough to counter the increase in wealth. Please do not misquote me, I am not arguing that everybody in Brazil is suddenly rich. We are talking about relative trends, not absolutes.

I'm certainly not trying to put words in your mouth.

I was just pointing out that the article I read about Brazil made it clear that it seems to be a special case, and it's not just improved living conditions that are at work.
I agree it's normally directly related to poverty. But Brazil seems to have bucked that trend.

I've found it again, the link is below. It actually seems to be women taking a lead, and the influence of TV soap operas, that are changing opinions.
National Geographic on the drop in the Brazilian birth rate

[Exi5tentialist]

Education of women is a function of increase in wealth. Churches probably do wield a big influence, but not big enough to counter the increase in wealth. Please do not misquote me, I am not arguing that everybody in Brazil is suddenly rich. We are talking about relative trends, not absolutes.

I'm certainly not trying to put words in your mouth.

I was just pointing out that the article I read about Brazil made it clear that it seems to be a special case, and it's not just improved living conditions that are at work.
I agree it's normally directly related to poverty. But Brazil seems to have bucked that trend.

I've found it again, the link is below. It actually seems to be women taking a lead, and the influence of TV soap operas, that are changing opinions.
National Geographic on the drop in the Brazilian birth rate

There are lots of very inconclusive articles out there about Brazil's falling birth rate. However, the basic factor is obvious. Brazil has increased is per capita income over the last 20-30 years. All the women's movements in the world can't achieve anything on the basis of continuing, absolute poverty. Soap operas are a detail on top of the decrease in poverty. Brazil is not bucking any trends.

[Warren Dew]

No idea if it's actually true, but i read somewhere the most effective way of reducing population growth was to make sure girls got a decent education.

I think so. I wouldn't underestimate the benefit of education for boys in this as well, though.

The primary effect of education in women appears to be a delay in marriage and childbirth. One province in China simply increased the minimum age for marriage - and didn't use the "one child" policy - and got the same effect. The women don't have to learn anything from their continued education for it to cut the birth rate.

Educating the men doesn't have the same effect, since male fertility doesn't drop as rapidly with age.

That and the availability of effective means of fertility control (for both sexes), 'morning after' remedies and abortion, all of which should be readily available to anyone.

Some effective means of birth control needs to be available - and it probably needs to be under the control of women and not men. Mistermack's article suggests that even just one means of birth control may be sufficient, though.

[Atheist-Lite]

Birth controls leads to a unsustainable ageing population and this will have it's own catastrophic effects. The first world is plundering the third/second world for medical social care needs with its ageing population...all I'm saying is this will lead to overlooked backfiring feedback loops that'll almost certainly leed to more population growth elsewhere. The human population, as a whole, will continue to grow until natural limits are met....eventually brought down by things like contagious disease, warfare and resource depletion, climate change induced famine or a asteroid strike. Any plan to do with birth control must really include age control to prevent the burden of a ageing population overwhelming a smaller youth population. Otherwise it is going to fail, like it appears to be doing in the first world today.