The Letter Of Last Resort - PMs letter to Nuke Sub Captains

[Coito ergo sum]

It is suspected that Thatcher chose option 1.

Option 1 would seem to make sense if the opposition knows the contents of the note. The idea of this instruction being a grand secret seems to me to be rather dubious. It's like the doomsday device in Dr. Strangelove --- what good is it as a deterrent if nobody knows about it? The best bet at it being an effective deterrent is to give one's enemy no doubt that retaliation is a certainty. Giving the enemy reason to think they might escape retaliation gives them something to debate --- should we roll the dice? What do we know of this PM and his decisionmaking? They could erroneously conclude that retaliation would not be this PM's style, and give it a shot.

The order is meaningless, though. In the end, if a submarine captain is certain of the eradication of the nation, then he is on his own and there are no more laws or obligations from or to that nation. He is a stateless entity, commanding a ship. Whether anyone likes it or not, his discretion is total. He or she must use his or her own best judgment as to what to do. Retaliate? Is there something to be gained by retaliating? Is that gain better than available alternatives? Are there friendly powers still around worth allying with?

When the command is written, it is written in the context of there being a command structure. Once the conditions for opening the envelope are met, however, there is ipso facto no command structure left. The order must be read in light of the reality at the time, and obedience to the order ought only be done if the captain believes it is right. Some might say that he has an honor or a duty to uphold, but that is all gone when the people he owes that allegiance to are gone. He now has a different duty -- the duty to do what is best for those that are still around. That may be "retaliate," but it may not.

[Rum]

I think a military senior officer of this sort would carry out orders without question. He would also be intelligent if he was in that position and would use his common sense if the orders made no sense in the circumstances he found himself. Duty first, then play the cards you have in your hand.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

It's like no one ever played missile command before. An air burst nuke detonation could easily take out incoming missiles.

Yeah, right. If you keep firing them. The attacks don't have to be 2D like that game.

[Coito ergo sum]

The Yanks had "Plan Red" in the 30s, a scheme to wage war on and destroy the British Empire. As luck would have it, the Germans did it for them but I still don't trust the buggers.

You would have to mention this as I love 'what if' scenarios. Now am off to wiki to check how strong both countries were at that time.

The Brits also had a strategy that took into account going to war with the US. However, their plan was to try to hold off a US blockade of Britain, and the British naval forces around the world would make targeted attacks in Manila, Bermuda, and up and down the US coasts. The Brits didn't think they could withstand a war with Merka, but they did think they could pull off a stalemate, lose Canada and enter into a negotiated peace.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I think a military senior officer of this sort would carry out orders without question. He would also be intelligent if he was in that position and would use his common sense if the orders made no sense in the circumstances he found himself. Duty first, then play the cards you have in your hand.

Very few stupid commanding officers. The military can be very Darwinian about that.

[Coito ergo sum]

I think a military senior officer of this sort would carry out orders without question. He would also be intelligent if he was in that position and would use his common sense if the orders made no sense in the circumstances he found himself. Duty first, then play the cards you have in your hand.

If he wouldn't carry out the orders if they made no sense, then he isn't carrying out the orders "without question." He is questioning them. If they make sense under the circumstances in which he found himself, then he carries them out. If they don't make sense under the circumstances, then he throws them in the garbage. In the scenario presented -- the UK destroyed -- that is not just an option, it is the only reasonable option. Carrying out pre-written orders "without question" under circumstances the commanding officer was not aware of at the time would be silly.

[Rum]

As Zilla says, few senior officers at that level are stupid, however the military instinct, pretty well hard wired is to follow orders. The officer would do his/her utmost to find a way to do so I suspect, unless they made no sense at all. The difficulty would arise if he/she was blind of course. If there were no communications available. What then?

It is also worth noting that all such scenarios will have been anticipated and played out in drills and training.

On which note I believe (someone correct me if I am wrong) they used to do launch drills of nuclear weapons without the personnel involved at the sharp end (i.e. arming and firing the weapons) knowing if it was for real or not on occasion. Presumably not often... I can't imagine the psychological toll that would take on you!

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Rum, one of the things drilled into me was that following stupid orders is worse that disobeying them. You compound the problem that way. So people stupid enough to follow stupid orders don't get far, with some few famous exceptions. (One of Boney's Field Marshals, for example.)

[DaveDodo007]

The Yanks had "Plan Red" in the 30s, a scheme to wage war on and destroy the British Empire. As luck would have it, the Germans did it for them but I still don't trust the buggers.

You would have to mention this as I love 'what if' scenarios. Now am off to wiki to check how strong both countries were at that time.

The Brits also had a strategy that took into account going to war with the US. However, their plan was to try to hold off a US blockade of Britain, and the British naval forces around the world would make targeted attacks in Manila, Bermuda, and up and down the US coasts. The Brits didn't think they could withstand a war with Merka, but they did think they could pull off a stalemate, lose Canada and enter into a negotiated peace.

That made sense because of Britain being vulnerable to a blockade. Only if Japan joined in could they have a more ambitious strategy.

[Seabass]

I'm gonna need a bigger sickle!